Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
718 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will linger near Lake Erie through Thursday
as high pressure remains centered over the upper Ohio valley.
The high will move to the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday, as a
cold front moves southeast through the Great Lakes and into the
Ohio valley by Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Severe storms were a little more rowdy and out of control this
afternoon thanks to an inverted upper air sounding profile which
was primed for damaging downburst winds. This convection is
slowly decreasing this evening but will remain scattered showers
and storms through at least sunset or 03z or so. No other
changes were made to the ongoing forecast.

Previous discussion...
Scattered convection will continue across the area this
afternoon into the evening hours. Coverage should peak early
this evening before a brief lull around 00Z. Hi-res guidance
continues to indicated additional convection developing upstream
or over the area after 00Z, moving south across the area
through the early overnight hours. Severe thunderstorms
potential should be confined to this afternoon/evening with peak
heating/maximized instability.

Composite outflow/synoptic boundary will be somewhere across
the area on Wednesday. Expecting a similar setup to today, as
daytime destabilization promotes scattered convection developing
as the day progresses. SPC has focused the Day 2 outlook to the
southern half of the area, with a marginal risk for damaging
winds, fairly similar to today. Coverage should diurnally wane
after sunset through Tuesday night. Highs tomorrow may be a few
degrees cooler than today, but still hot and humid. Lows will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s tonight and tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
No major changes to the forecast for the end of the week, with
high pressure over the eastern US, bringing hot and humid
conditions and continued scattered shower/thunderstorm chances.
These will be driven mainly by daytime heating, with peak
coverage during the afternoon/evening hours. Highs will be in
the mid/upper 80s with lows around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will push southeast across the area early Saturday,
with shower/thunderstorms possible through the day. High
pressure will build southeast across the Great Lakes region
Saturday night through the first half of next week, keeping
conditions generally dry and slightly cooler to end the
weekend, with general warming trend through midweek as the high
shifts east of the region. There may be some instability driven
showers/storms by Tuesday with moisture return into the area.
Highs Saturday will be in the mid 80s. Highs will be in the low
80s Sunday, but will return to the mid 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Scattered strong to severe convection is slowly decreasing this
evening and most of the convection should be gone by sunset or
shortly after. Have carried VCTS for some of the TAF locations
for this potential through the mid evening. Mainly VFR
conditions are expected now through the next 24 to 30 hours with
the exception of brief MVFR around any evening convection. Also
winds may be gusty and erratic near evening convection. Winds
will prevail from the southwest to westerly 5 to 10 knots now
through tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms that develop through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet conditions expected on the lake through the
holiday weekend. Southwest winds will diminish into this
evening, and will be light and variable through Wednesday as a
stationary front lingers near the lake. The front will lift
north of the lake Thursday, with southerly winds returning to
the lake by Friday. A cold front will finally cross the lake by
Saturday, with generally northerly winds through the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt/Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin/Saunders
MARINE...Greenawalt/Saunders

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
414 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-030815-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
414 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is the possibility that a few thunderstorms could reach severe
criteria today. The main threat will be strong damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1213 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

OHZ006-008-017>019-030500-
Seneca-Huron-Wood-Hancock-Sandusky-
1213 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN HURON...SENECA...
SOUTHERN SANDUSKY...SOUTHEASTERN WOOD AND NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK
COUNTIES...

At 1213 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Tiffin, moving
east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tiffin, Norwalk, Fremont, Fostoria, Bellevue, Clyde, Willard, North
Baltimore, Plymouth, Green Springs, Bloomville, Arcadia, New Riegel,
Ballville, Monroeville, Bradner, Attica, Wayne, Bloomdale and
Bettsville.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Cleveland.

LAT...LON 4116 8367 4136 8350 4125 8261 4100 8262
      4099 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 292DEG 36KT 4120 8322

Griffin