Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
318 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will move south of the forecast area
overnight.  High pressure will build over the region on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will move south across the forecast area
overnight.  Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this
afternoon and evening in advance of this system.  The bulk of the
activity will remain over Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA but a
scattered shower or thunderstorm is possible anywhere in the
forecast area.  The front will become nearly stationary south of the
Ohio River Valley overnight.  High pressure will briefly build over
the region on Sunday bringing dry, clear and cooler conditions. Any
system will approach the forecast area from the west late Sunday
night.  A few showers are possible in the western areas towards
daybreak Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will approach the area on Monday with increasing
chances of thunderstorms through the day. The best chances look to
be during the evening with some jet energy rounding the top of the
ridge. Cant rule out the potential for a few severe thunderstorms.
Cold front will attempt to move south of the region Monday morning
but it may end up being located across western Ohio. This may end up
causing a few thunderstorms to develop across NW Ohio as we see
additional ripples of jet energy round the top of the ridge.

5H heights increase in the short term so we will warm back up with
above average temperatures returning. May have to watch heat index
values Monday afternoon with NW Ohio approaching 100.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
More of the same in the long term with weak frontal boundaries
influencing the area along with lake breezes and outflow from
convection. The upper level ridge will fluctuate in strength over us
which will bounce the thunderstorm coverage from isolated to
scattered each day. Temperatures will remain above seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
this afternoon as a cold front drifts south over the forecast
area. Cloud bases around 4-5kft. The models indicate an
increase in convection particularly over the central and
eastern sections of the area within the next few hours. I will
place VCTS in many TAF locations ~ 20Z to 24Z as confidence in
the exact location will be difficult. After 00Z the convection
will slide to the south and high pressure will build over the
region. Westerly winds will shift to the northwest as this front
passes TAF locations this evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms that develop Monday afternoon through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will sag southward across the lake overnight with
westerly winds becoming north. Winds reach 15 knots for several
hours Sunday morning which may build waves to 2 to 4 feet from
Vermilion to Ripley. Likely the highest from Avon to Geneva-on-the-
lake. High pressure then takes control of the region Sunday night
into Monday with light winds. Another weak frontal boundary will
cross the lake on Monday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Garnet
NEAR TERM...Garnet
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Garnet
MARINE...MM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
559 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-301000-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
559 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon.
Thunderstorms will be focused along the lake breeze initially, then
shift south with time into this evening ahead of a cold front.
Thunderstorms today will pose a marginal risk for severe weather with
a few of the strongest thunderstorms producing hail to one inch in
diameter and wind gusts of 50-60 mph. Locally heavy rainfall will
also be possible. Thunderstorms will be strongest between 3 PM and 8
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-301000-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
559 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

OHZ033-292015-
Mahoning-
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAHONING COUNTY...

At 324 PM EDT, isolated strong thunderstorms were located over
Mahoning County moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4099 8109 4099 8100 4113 8099 4113 8052
      4090 8052 4090 8082 4093 8083 4093 8089
      4090 8090 4091 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 298DEG 16KT 4102 8071