Small Craft Advisory 81, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
112 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong surface low pressure system over Illinois will slides
east across Lake Erie today and towards the east coast on
Monday. High pressure will build across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Getting indications of lightning with the GLM and a couple
cloud to ground strikes. Will continue the mention of a slight
chance of thunder and will monitor for wind/small hail. Tweaks
were made to tonight's forecast and the changeover timing.
Previous discussion follows.

Precipitation was moving in from the southwest to northeast
this morning as a warm front lifted into the area. Moisture is
currently deepening with low cloud bases and light rain/drizzle
intensifying into moderate rain. Scattered thunderstorms with
pea size hail will be possible with the initial surge through
daybreak. Temperatures are hovering around the upper 30s to low
40s in most of Ohio. However PENNDOT sensors are showing some
areas with roads at freezing in Crawford PA. Believe the higher
terrain of eastern Crawford and Erie PA Counties are vulnerable
to freezing rain as the precipitation moves in mainly between 5
and 8 AM. Look for light ice accumulations under a 0.1", however
travel could be hazardous where ice accumulates.

A break in the rain will develop behind the fropa this morning
with drying in the mid levels through the middle part of the
day. Look for redevelopment as the low across northern Ohio
this afternoon, and a strong low level jet axis lifts into the
area. Soundings suggest a few hours of instability and lift
favorable for some thunderstorms around and after 18Z. The
surface low is expected to moves east across Lake Erie this
evening with the cold front expected after midnight. The cold
air advection will support a rain/snow mix which will transition
over to all snow by Monday morning. Forcing will rapidly
diminish behind the system as it pushes east. Northerly flow
will favor lake effect banding on Monday, becoming northwest in
the evening. With unfavorable fetch and initial warm ground
conditions not expecting notable accumulates. For now carrying a
trace for most areas, with 1 to 2 inches in the primary
snowbelt.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Residual light snow showers will persist over parts of northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania with shallow moisture. Dry air will
temporarily move in on Tuesday before a series of vortices move
through the upper level northwest flow, beginning Tuesday night.
This will result in a mix of lake enhanced system precipitation and
pure lake effect through Wednesday night. Precipitation type will be
mixed precipitation during the day, and all snow at night. As with
most lake effect events, far northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania will see the greatest chance for precipitation and thus
accumulating snow. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below
normal through this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The overall weather pattern becomes more amplified in the long term.
Most models have an upper level trough moving southeast across the
Great Lakes on Friday, though there is still considerable
disagreement on trough application, placement, orientation and the
amount of moisture associated with it. Given the uncertainty, riding
with chance pops on Friday with slight chance pops for the lake
effect areas on Friday night. Upper level ridging on Saturday allows
for more tranquil weather. Expect temperatures to be right around
normal during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Changeable conditions will continue for the terminals with sky
coverage, precip and precip type, and wind changes. Low pressure
will cross northern OH tonight. Remaining IFR will dissipate
across far northeast OH/nw PA with a break of VFR to follow.
With that the break in the cloud cover, a few thunderstorms may
develop as temperatures cool aloft. Best chances would be for a
rumble or two at MFD and CAK this afternoon. Too low of chances
to include in TAFs. Wrap around cloud cover will be variable at
first (VFR to MVFR), but settle with widespread MVFR for
tonight. Areas of IFR cigs expected inland. Scattered showers
will be around for much of the night with a changeover,
generally, from west to east. A warmer wedge of air will linger
across far northeast OH/nw PA and hold a complete changeover
till later tonight. Otherwise winds will veer from the southeast
to southwest and finally west and northwest Monday. Minor gusts
possible to 20 knots. Ceiling improvement will likely wait until
after 18Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continues into Monday afternoon. Non-VFR possible
again Tuesday night into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish at this time and the small craft
advisory has been cancelled. Flow will continue to shift around
from a south to southeast direction around to a more variable
direction over the next several hours as low pressure moves
northeast across the lake.

Original Discussion...

Small craft advisory will remain in effect through early Sunday
afternoon primarily for southeast winds of 15 to 25 knots. Elevated
waves of 3 to 5 feet will primarily be beyond 3 miles offshore.
Winds diminish across the area through Sunday afternoon/evening as
low pressure moves east across the area. Winds will then be
generally light through early Monday morning before northerly .
winds increase to 15 to 20 knots as the low passes to the east. Will
likely need a Small Craft Advisory for Monday and into early Monday
night for nearshore zones east of the islands. West and southwest
winds increase on Tuesday through Thursday morning at low pressure
deepens near the James Bay and high pressure develops over the
southern CONUS. Will likely need another lengthy Small Craft
Advisory through Thursday or so.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jamison
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Lombardy/Saunders

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1006 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-021515-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
1006 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Lake Erie, eastern
Lake Erie, western Lake Erie, north central Ohio, northeast Ohio,
northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon could produce pea size hail
and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
230 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             MOUNT GILEAD            40.55N 82.83W
12/01/2019  M0.50 INCH       MORROW             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
234 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             MONROEVILLE             41.24N 82.69W
12/01/2019  E0.70 INCH       HURON              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&