Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1001 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A much cooler and less humid air mass will move into the region
today and for much of the week as high pressure gradually
builds into and across the Ohio Valley. Northwest flow in the
upper levels will bring below average temperatures and below
precipitation this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Only major change made for today's forecast was to increase pops
for lingering showers today. Showers seem to be lingering a tad
longer than previously thought. However, they should be tapering
off through later this morning and early this afternoon, and be
completely cleared out by tonight aside from some lake effect
showers in NW PA.

Previous Discussion...

The upper level weather pattern change is finally giving the
support needed to push a cold front through the region this
morning. The front is kinda ill defined by the surface winds
across the area this morning. But looking upstream in Michigan
and southern Ontario, lower surface dewpoints are moving down on
northerly winds. This airmass is what is heading our way slowly
today. We will continue the chance for scattered showers through
mid morning with rain chances slowly tapering off from northwest
to southeast today as the drier airmass starts to move in.
High and mid level cloudiness will likely hang on for much of
the day. Clouds will start to clear out this evening and
overnight. Diurnal heating will only manage to get the
temperatures up in the middle 70s this afternoon with the cooler
airmass moving in and cloud cover. Once the clouds clear out
tonight, temperatures will fall down into the upper 50s to
around 60 by Tuesday morning. Tuesday looks like a fantastic day
across the region with sunshine and comfortable temperatures in
the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Tuesday night with models showing high
pressure building into the region from the west. Aloft however,
a rather sharp trough will still be over the eastern lakes into
the Ohio Valley. With such cool air aloft, and the NAM showing
an impulse dropping south through Michigan late Tuesday, will
need to have at least a slight chance pop across the northern
counties for showers. This impulse start out Wednesday morning
along the north coast to will also keep slight chance pops
through the day for all but the northwest. Wednesday night into
Thursday the NAM brings another impulse across the lake in
northwest flow but the GFS doesnt have the feature so for now
will go with a dry forecast as upper heights begin to rise
behind the trough. The trend of rising upper heights continues
into Thursday. Highs wednesday should reach the upper 70s.
Thursday highs will reach the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The trend of fair weather will continue through the long term
with no organized systems affecting the area. Through the
weekend, the surface high will drift east of the region and
southwest flow behind the high should bring up more humidity
increasing the chances for diurnal convection so will have
slight chance pops for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Highs
mainly mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR to MVFR this morning depending on location across the area.
MFD is reporting some LIFR to IFR conditions before of local
effects of terrain through 14z this morning. There are scattered
showers moving across northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania.
We will carry VCSH in the TAFs with TEMPO groups for brief
ceilings drops to MVFR between 1500 and 3000 feet and visibility
drops to 5sm. MVFR ceilings may hang around through 15z or so
before ceilings begin to lift by midday. All TAF locations
should be VFR this afternoon and clearing from west to east
overnight. A broken of high clouds may still linger for the far
eastern area through late tonight. Winds for the most part have
shifted to the north or northeast this morning 5 to 10 knots.
Will continue those northerly winds around 10 knots today
relaxing to near 5 knots tonight.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will be over central Ohio this morning, moving east-
northeast along a frontal boundary.  To the west, high pressure will
be centered over the Dakotas. Models increase the pressure gradient
across the lake as the low moves east and the high begins to build
toward the area.  This will cause northerly winds to increase this
evening and overnight.  Current guidance now suggests we get into a
small craft advisory criteria this evening and overnight across the
central basin with north flow of 15 to 20 knots. For now will have
that a small craft advisory may be needed and have the day shift
issue if current forecast is confirmed.  Northwest flow drops back
early Tuesday.  For the remainder of the period, winds on the lake
will remain fairly light as high pressure moves through the
region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Saunders
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...TK

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