Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
102 AM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure in the Mid-Mississippi Valley will track
to eastern Kentucky this evening and spread significant
snowfall to much of the area. The low pressure area will move to
New Jersey by Sunday morning as arctic high pressure begins to
build into the region in the wake of the storm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Moderate to heavy snow is continuing over most of the county
warning area.  The back edge of the snow shield is entering
the far northwest sections of the forecast area and will be
working eastward overnight. Snow rates continue to be in the
0.5 to 1.0 inch range over the region. Some mixed precipitation
was occurring over the southeast section of the area. Doppler
radar CC products indicate some mixed precipitation near Canton
but all areas should transition to snow within the next few
hours. Additional snow accumulations will continue through the
night, particularly for Northeast Ohio and NW PA. Snow intensity
will gradually decrease over Northwest and North Central Ohio
after midnight. Winds will continue to be a problem. Northeast
winds of 25 to 35 knots have caused blowing snow problems. Winds
will continue to gust in the 30 to 35 knot range overnight.
Winds will gradually turn to a more northerly direction by
morning. I will leave all current headlines in place. The
falling and blowing snow will continue to cause problems for all
counties into the overnight hours. I will make a few minor
adjustments to the forecast to account for current trends but
the forecast appears to be on track.

Previous Discussion...
The only forecast changes with this afternoon
update is the addition of a wintry mix south of Highway 30. The
warm nose layer or warm air aloft came in a little further than
previously forecast. We have freezing rain and sleet mixing in
for our central Ohio counties with temperatures in the upper 20s
to around 30. We will likely see a light glaze of ice on
objects and some minor sleet accumulations before the wintry mix
changes back over to all heavy snow early this evening. We
think it will be all snow again between 6 pm and 8 pm this
evening.

Given that the wintry mix transition line shifted a little
further north, we also shifted the highest storm totals a little
northward as well. They will be between I-80/90 and Highway 30.
See the latest SPC mesoscale discussion regarding heavy snowfall
rates for the rest of the afternoon into this evening. We will
see 1 to 1.5 inch per hour rates at times under the heavier
snowbands and visibilities between 1/2 a mile to a 1/4 of a mile
through much of the evening and overnight. As the surface low
pressure is deepening and move through the Ohio River Valley, we
will see our winds locally become stronger. Northeast to North
winds will be 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph tonight.
Blowing snow will be likely this evening through Sunday morning.
We will likely end up with a storm total of 5 to 8 inches for
portions of northwest Ohio. The rest of northern Ohio will see 6
to 10 inches storm total with some isolated locations seeing up
to a foot of snow by early Sunday morning. Northwest
Pennsylvania will end up with 10 to 12 inches of snow as well.

Temperatures will fall tonight and during the day on Sunday. We
will also see our snow to liquid ratios increase tonight into
Sunday as the Arctic airmass starts to move in. We started out
using 12 to 1 for the first half of the storm and 15 to 1 ratio
by Sunday morning.

The storm will begin to pull away Sunday morning. We have push
back the snow ending from west to east for a few hours. We will
likely see moderate to heavy snow through 4 am or so and slowly
tapered off. Strong northerly winds tomorrow and Arctic air will
turn on the Lake Effect Snow machine from Lake Huron and Lake
Erie. Models are in better agreement for a band of snow to
develop down into northwest Ohio near the islands by Sunday
afternoon. This band will gradually move eastward as the winds
turn more northwesterly Sunday night into Monday. We do expect
additional 3 to 5 inches for fluffy Lake Effect snow for areas
that stay under the persistent bands across the primary and
secondary Snowbelt. Looking at the lower atmospheric profile and
BUFkit, the moisture and signal is a little better and more
confidence for LES development. Temperatures will be frigid by
Monday morning with areas away from the lake below zero and wind
chills -10F to -20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering lake effect snow will continue to impact the snowbelt
in NE Ohio and possibly NW PA through about noon on Monday.
Little accumulation is expected during this time.

The big story for Monday will be the cold temperatures expected to
impact the region. Northwest and north central Ohio can expect to
remain in the upper single digits...where just east of there will
warm generally into the mid teens. This in combination with light to
moderate northwest winds will result in wind chill values in the -10
to -20 range. The cold temperatures continue into Monday night and
Tuesday morning where locations a bit more inland from the lake
could see temperatures fall to near zero.

Otherwise...temperatures begin to warm Tuesday into Wednesday as an
upper trough moves east toward Ohio. We will see daytime high
temperatures warm into the mid 30s on Tuesday and into possibly the
mid 40s by Wednesday. The next shot of precipitation moves into
western Ohio Tuesday afternoon spreading southeast through the rest
of the area by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With the warmer
temperatures...we are going to have a bit of a mixed bag of
precipitation...starting off as snow...transitioning to rain by
Tuesday night...back to snow by Wednesday afternoon. There is the
possibility of freezing rain generally across the southern and
eastern portion of the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By Thursday morning we are expecting another cooling trend...with
precipitation back to all snow. Starting Thursday night...a series
of upper level shortwaves will pass east through the area bringing a
chance of snow to the area. Details will be worked out as we near
this part of the forecast. Either way...the entire forecast calls
for mostly unsettled weather through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Widespread IFR conditions in SN and BLSN continue across the
terminals...with the exception of TOL which is now just wrapping
up with the snow. CLE should see a marked improvement around 5AM
and that trend will continue eastward. MVFR conditions will be
predominate from mid morning onward. There will be a break and
then some lake effect snow showers will develop with a
connection to Lake Huron. The positive is that we will have much
less moisture to work with. Snow showers may actually start west
of CLE and then slowly shift across the CLE/CAK terminals then
then by evening toward YNG. ERI may not see much. So expect
temporary dips to IFR in those snow showers. North winds will
continue to gust around 30 knots through much of the day. For
the remainder of the overnight can still see gusts to 40 knots.
Winds relax toward evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in snow at times across the snowbelt on
Sunday night into Monday. Non-VFR possible Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong northeasterly winds will develop today with a strong pressure
gradient as low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley and high
pressure remains positioned across the northern lakes and northern
Plains. Winds are expected to peak at 35 knot Gales tonight,
diminishing for Sunday. A small craft advisory will surely follow
the Gale Warning and likely last through Sunday night. Air
temperatures are expected to plummet through the teens Sunday and
into the single digits for Sunday night. Heavy freezing spray is
still a concern and a warning may be needed for extreme spray with
the juxtaposition of temperatures getting below about 12 and winds
still around 30 knots Sunday afternoon/evening. High pressure will
pass across the lake Monday quieting the lake but also allowing for
the possibility of a fast freeze on the western basin. See the Ice
Outlook/Marine Weather Statement for a possible Ice Advisory. South
through southwest winds increase on the lake going into Wednesday
with a cold front crossing the lake early Wednesday. This will
likely be another small craft advisory situation.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for OHZ010>014-
     020>023-089.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ009-
     017>019-027>033-036>038-047.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ003-
     007-009.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     OHZ003-006>008.
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for LEZ142>149-
     162>169.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Garnet/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Riley
LONG TERM...Riley
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Riley

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

OHZ009-201245-
Erie-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

Wind chills will fall to 5 to 15 below zero Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of snowfall will be appreciated.

OHZ006-008-201245-
Wood-Sandusky-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Wind chills will fall to 10 to 20 below zero Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of snowfall will be appreciated.

OHZ003-007-201245-
Lucas-Ottawa-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

Wind chills will fall to 10 to 20 below zero Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of snowfall will be appreciated.

OHZ017>019-027>033-036>038-047-201245-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-
Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Wind chills will fall to 10 to 20 below zero Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of snowfall will be appreciated.

OHZ010>014-020>023-089-PAZ001>003-201245-
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Wind chills will fall to 5 to 20 below zero Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of snowfall will be appreciated.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-201245-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
743 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy freezing spray is likely late Saturday night through Sunday
evening as temperatures plunge into the teens and eventually single
digits. In addition, rapid ice growth can be expected on Lake Erie
Monday into Tuesday with an arctic airmass in place.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1037 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     SNOW             ELYRIA                  41.38N  82.10W
01/19/2019  M5.7 INCH        LORAIN             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CLE1900446

BM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1052 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     SNOW             KENT                    41.15N  81.36W
01/19/2019  M7.0 INCH        PORTAGE            OH   SOCIAL MEDIA

            12-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CLE1900447

BM