Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
316 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across the region tonight. A large
area of high pressure will build southeast through the Great
Lakes and Ohio valley Sunday through Tuesday night. Low pressure
will track east across the region midweek, with a frontal
boundary becoming stationary across the region through the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Severe thunderstorm threat ramping up this afternoon across
northwest Ohio. Storms have fired across northwest PA as well on
a lake breeze, however the severe threat will remain more
isolated here over the next several hours with little shear. The
bigger threat at this point for northwest PA is pulse type
storms/downbursts as well as a heightened potential for flash
flooding with slow moving/training storms along the boundary.

Severe potential will maximize across the area through mid
evening hours, with 2-3k j/kg SBCAPE and 1-2k j/kg MLCAPE. MLCIN
continues to erode and storm coverage will expand with good
lapse rates across NW OH. Shear remains minimal across the area,
however will be increasing after 00Z. Damaging winds, large hail
and flash flooding are all possible.

The front will push south of the area overnight into Sunday
morning. Cloudy skies will begin clearing from the northwest
during the morning hours. Some instability driven showers are
possible, especially downwind of the lake, during the
morning hours before drier air moves in during the afternoon.
Below normal temps will infiltrate the area Sunday and Sunday
night. Highs will only reach the mid/upper 60s to around 70
Sunday, and lows will dip down into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Canadian high pressure will be over the area Monday with northerly
winds. Lingering lake clouds will be hanging around for area near
the lakeshore of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The rest
of the area will see sunshine but temperatures will be much cooler.
High temperatures will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. The
center of the high moves across the area Monday evening with light
and variable winds. We will see another cool night Monday night with
overnight lows in the 40s. Southwesterly winds and moisture begins
to return on Tuesday on the backside of the high pressure.
Temperatures will start a warming trend on Tuesday. The next mid
level wave in a northwest flow will move across the region late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. We will see a good chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms by mid week with temperatures back to
seasonable levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary will drift southward across the area
Wednesday night. Areas south of this boundary will continue to see
the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The boundary
stalls out near northern or central Ohio Wednesday night into
Thursday. This boundary will be the focus for additional showers and
storm chances through the end of the week. An upper level low
pressure area will be moving across the central U.S. into the Ohio
River Valley by the end of the week. This upper level low combine
with a weak stalled out boundary in the region will keep scattered
rain chances through the end of the week. Temperatures will remain
seasonable as well.  We may have to keep an eye out for hydro
concerns if we see multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall for
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
A cold front will sink south towards the area this afternoon and
move through the area overnight. VFR conditions are expected
ahead of the front outside of convection, but TSRA chances will
ramp up around 00Z at the northern terminals near Lake Erie. A
storm will move through KERI over the first hour of the period.
TSRA chances will begin to diminish after 06Z tonight. Some post
frontal MVFR ceilings are possible through Sunday morning, with
gradual improvement/clearing from the northwest through and just
after the end of the period. Southwest winds will become
northwest behind the front late in the period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible east Sunday morning and again
Wednesday afternoon west.

&&

.MARINE...
The main concern for boaters this afternoon and evening will be the
scattered strong to severe convection over the lake as well as
erratic severe wind gusts from that convection. A frontal boundary
will be drifting across the lake this evening. Winds will start out
southwesterly 10 to 20 knots but become northerly late tonight into
Sunday behind the passage of the front. Northwest winds will
increase 10 to 20 knots by Sunday afternoon and night with waves
also increasing. Canadian high pressure will build over the lake
Monday. Northwest winds will still remain 10 to 20 knots early on
Monday then becoming light and variable by Monday evening. Southwest
winds return 10 to 15 knots by Tuesday. Another frontal boundary
will move down and stall out near the lake by mid week with variable
and changing wind directions. Also there will be scattered storms
over the lake for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Griffin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
426 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

OHZ017>023-027>033-036>038-047-020830-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
426 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-020830-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
426 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006>014-089-PAZ001>003-020830-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Crawford-
426 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall this afternoon and
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will move southeast across the
area mainly this afternoon and tonight and some locally heavy
downpours can be expected. There is the possibility for rapid rises
of streams and creeks across the area in areas where the heavy rain
occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
306 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             1 W TOLEDO              41.67N 83.60W
06/01/2019  E1.00 INCH       LUCAS              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
316 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     HAIL             1 ESE HOLLAND           41.61N 83.69W
06/01/2019  E1.00 INCH       LUCAS              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
324 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             2 NW ROSSFORD           41.62N 83.58W
06/01/2019  E1.00 INCH       LUCAS              OH   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT TOLEDO ZOO.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
336 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HAIL             ROSSFORD                41.61N 83.56W
06/01/2019  E1.00 INCH       WOOD               OH   PUBLIC

            REPORTED IN ROSSFORD.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
339 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 17 NE HARBOR VIEW       41.84N 83.18W
06/01/2019  M44 MPH          LEZ162             OH   C-MAN STATION

            RECORDED AT TOLEDO LIGHTHOUSE #2.

&&

RC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
400 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

PAZ003-012030-
Crawford-
400 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY...

At 400 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Guys Mills, or
11 miles northwest of Franklin. The storm is nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Titusville, Harmonsburg, Adamsville, Guys Mills,
Pymatuning Central, Atlantic, Cochranton, Conneaut Lake, Jamestown,
Hydetown, Blooming Valley, Townville, Conneaut Lakeshore, Geneva and
Hartstown.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4162 7982 4149 8000 4148 8013 4149 8052
      4163 8052 4178 7961 4162 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 180DEG 0KT 4155 7994

Saunders