Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Cleveland, OH

500 
WWUS51 KCLE 172247
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
647 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

OHC117-172257-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-190517T2345Z/
Morrow OH-
647 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORROW COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4027 8268 4030 8268
      4035 8265 4042 8260 4036 8219 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 292DEG 32KT 4033 8258 

$$

OHC083-172345-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-190517T2345Z/
Knox OH-
647 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTY...

At 647 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Centerburg, or
near Mount Vernon, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect damage to 
         trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Gambier, Utica, Martinsburg and Bladensburg. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4027 8268 4030 8268
      4035 8265 4042 8260 4036 8219 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 292DEG 32KT 4033 8258 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

861 
WWUS51 KCLE 172258
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
658 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

OHC083-172345-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-190517T2345Z/
Knox OH-
658 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY...

At 658 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Utica, or 8
miles south of Mount Vernon, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Utica, Martinsburg and Bladensburg. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4027 8257 4032 8254
      4036 8249 4030 8219 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 296DEG 28KT 4027 8249 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

027 
WWUS51 KCLE 172308
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
708 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

OHC083-172318-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-190517T2345Z/
Knox OH-
708 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4027 8257 4032 8254
      4036 8249 4030 8219 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 296DEG 21KT 4024 8242 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
428 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will stall across Central Ohio
tonight before lifting north as a strong warm front on Saturday. Low
pressure will track out of the Plains on Sunday, crossing the
Central Great Lakes Sunday night and pulling a cold front east
across the area. High pressure will build east across the Great
Lakes late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front continues to push south of the Route 30 corridor
late this afternoon and is acting as a focus for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop. Instability with ML CAPE values of 500-
1000 J/kg have developed south of this boundary where dewpoints
remain in the low 60s. Thunderstorms have struggled to grow
vertically though with skinny CAPE profiles. We will continue to
monitor for any stronger thunderstorms but CAPE is expected to
decrease as the thicker cloud cover from upstream convection
arrives. Scattered convection will continue to drift southeast
through 7-8 PM with a diminishing trend this evening. Small hail or
wind gusts to 40 mph are possible with the strongest thunderstorms.

Upper level ridge will expand north overnight. Energy spilling
around the ridge combined with continued mid-level moisture
advection will likely cause scattered showers to develop
overnight across mainly the north. A few thunderstorms will
also be possible with a ribbon of elevated instability shifting
east with time. Scattered showers may linger in the east into
Saturday morning before lifting north of the area.

Low pressure lifting out of the Plains will lift a warm front north
across the area on Saturday. Strong warm advection will occur with
temperatures making a push into the lower 80s for southern counties.
The front will be a little slower to clear both NW Ohio and NW PA
and temperatures may take until later afternoon to reach the 70s.
Easterly winds on Saturday ahead of the warm front will cause water
levels to rise on the west end of Lake Erie. Please see the
Coastal/Lakeshore Flood section below for additional information.
Temperatures will remain mild on Saturday night with all areas in
the warm sector.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front will lift north of the lake on Sunday with a warm and
breezy/windy afternoon anticipated. Wind gusts will need to be
monitored closely for the potential of a wind advisory. The region
will see increasing moisture and instability by Sunday afternoon with
convection developing west of the area then move into NW Ohio by
evening. Some of the thunderstorms will be on the strong side along
with some locally heavy rainfall. Cold front sweeps across the area
Sunday night into early Monday with high pressure building across
the region.

Highs Sunday afternoon will be very warm with all locations into the
80s. Cooler in the wake of the front on Monday with highs in the 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period continues to indicate an active weather pattern
as a southwesterly flow persists across the Plains into the Great
Lakes Region. So expect to see increasing chances of thunderstorms
every couple of days. The first may arrive Tuesday night into
Wednesday then the next wave arriving on Friday. Not much confidence
in this time with uncertainty on where a frontal boundary will be
located and the differing opinion between the models on where the
jet energy will be located.

Tuesday will be the cool day of the long term with highs in the 60s.
Warmer Wednesday through Friday with highs easily into the 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
At 18Z a weak cold front was located along a line from near
FDY-MFD-YNG. The front is expected to slowly settle south this
afternoon and may kick off a few showers, already starting to
show up south of MFD. MVFR with locally IFR ceilings are in
place to start the TAF cycle north of the front with VFR to the
south of the front. A few thunderstorms are also possible this
afternoon but confidence in hitting a terminal was too low to
include in any of the TAFs at this time. Scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms are expected to return to NW Ohio late
this evening and slowly shift eastward across the area
overnight, near ERI after 12Z. Conditions will generally be VFR
overnight. Otherwise winds will be north to northeast at 10
knots or less north of the front, shifting around to east or
southeast tonight as the boundary lifts back north as a warm
front.

OUTLOOK...Some non-VFR possible Saturday morning in showers and
again Sunday evening into Monday morning. Thunderstorms are
possible Sunday evening/night.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front will continue a slow move southward away from the lake
tonight with a northerly wind. However as the boundary lifts back to
the north winds will shift to a northeast to east direction which
will cause water rises on the western basin. Warm front will lift
north of the lake on Sunday with gusty south to southwest winds
expected. The western half of the lake will need to be monitored for
a small craft advisory since winds speeds may reach the 21 knot
threshold. Cold front should sweep across the region Sunday night
with winds shifting to the west and northwest for Monday. So this
will likely require us to issue a small craft advisory at some point
Sunday night then continue into Monday.

&&

.COASTAL/LAKESHORE FLOODING...
Water levels continue to be very high across the western basin.
Easterly winds developing tonight and continuing into Saturday will
push water levels up. Will monitor closely and issue a coastal flood
watch if needed. However if winds increase more than expected we may
need to consider a very short fused coastal flood warning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC/MM
COASTAL/LAKESHORE FLOODING...MM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
421 AM EDT Fri May 17 2019

OHZ006-017>019-027>032-036>038-047-180830-
Wood-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-
Stark-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
421 AM EDT Fri May 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today as a cold
front moves south across the area. The main threats will be damaging
winds and large hail this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-007>014-020>023-033-089-PAZ001>003-
180830-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Ottawa-
Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-
Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-Crawford-
421 AM EDT Fri May 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
528 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

OHZ027-028-036-037-172215-
Crawford-Wyandot-Marion-Morrow-
528 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MARION...SOUTHEASTERN WYANDOT...
MORROW AND SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

At 527 PM EDT, an area of strong thunderstorm was located near
Marion, moving east at 30 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and half
inch hail are possible.

Locations that may impacted include...Marion, Mount Gilead, Galion,
Cardington, Ashley, Prospect, La Rue, Morral, Waldo, Chesterville,
Sparta, Marseilles, Caledonia, New Bloomington, Edison, Green Camp,
Marengo, Fulton, Harpster and Iberia.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4036 8293 4041 8292 4047 8325 4051 8325
      4050 8342 4075 8342 4071 8262 4067 8262
      4067 8265 4064 8265 4063 8262 4055 8262
      4055 8264 4035 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 278DEG 28KT 4062 8319

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
615 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

OHZ037-047-172315-
Morrow-Knox-
615 PM EDT Fri May 17 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MORROW AND KNOX
COUNTIES...

At 613 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Cardington, or
near Mount Gilead, moving east at 40 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph
and pea size hail are possible with this storm. Brief heavy
downpours may produce up to half an inch of rainfall.

Locations that may be impacted include...Mount Vernon, Mount Gilead,
Fredericktown, Gambier, Utica, Cardington, Centerburg, Ashley,
Danville, Chesterville, Sparta, Edison, Marengo, Fulton, Martinsburg
and Bladensburg.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4027 8248 4027 8274 4028 8275
      4035 8275 4036 8293 4041 8292 4042 8296
      4058 8291 4046 8218 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 285DEG 36KT 4047 8284