Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
759 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the region
overnight.  High pressure will briefly build over the Ohio Valley on
Saturday.  Another weaker cold front will move through the forecast
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Updated forecast to give better timing of line of thunderstorms
moving east across the area. Made some minor hourly temperature
adjustments as well. Severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect
as issued.

Previous Discussion...

A strong cold front will move across the forecast area
this evening.  Storms were developing this afternoon ahead of the
front in eastern Indiana.  The short term models show the
thunderstorm development increasing through the late afternoon with
a line of thunderstorms forming and moving across the area this
evening. SPC has much of the northern sections of Ohio in a
Slight Risk Outlook category for tonight. Temperatures have once
again exceeded expectations reaching around 90 in many
locations. Dew points have crawled into the lower 70s. The
atmosphere is prime for a downburst wind event this evening. A
threat of isolated tornadoes remains but wind will be the
primary threat. The short term models show the greatest threat
of severe weather in northwest Ohio. The short term models
decrease the intensity of the storms over the eastern section of
the forecast area later this evening. Storms will push east of
after midnight. High pressure will build over the region on
Saturday. Non-thunderstorm wind is also a concern for NW PA. A
south to southeast downslope wind is likely this evening. Model
soundings indicate 40-50knots within a 1kft of the surface 00Z-
06Z time frame. I will continue the wind advisory for NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures warm on Sunday as southerly flow develops with a wave
of low pressure sliding east across the Central Great Lakes. The
airmass will be dry through the daytime hours with some passing mid-
level cloud cover. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will extend
south towards Lake Erie Sunday night with a few showers brushing
northeast Ohio into Monday morning as a cold front settles south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A large area of high pressure will set up across Quebec and the
eastern Great Lakes through much of next week. Temperatures will
drop back on Tuesday into the mid 70s across NW Pennsylvania closest
to the cold pocket of air over New York. Inland areas will remain a
little warmer with temperatures holding closer to 80. Temperatures
will trend warmer a couple degrees each day with warm advection
increasing on Thursday as southerly flow kicks in and the ridge
builds aloft. Above normal temperatures expected through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A line of thunderstorms will continue to move east across the
area with the strongest storm up near the lakeshore. This
activity will continue to move east ahead of the cold front.
Ceilings will drop to MVFR and IFR at times with the front and
then behind it for a period of time east of Toledo and Findlay.
Otherwise, gradual improvement from west to east overnight to
VFR tomorrow. Winds will be diminishing after frontal passage at
Erie.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers Sunday afternoon into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds of 10-20 knots expected on Lake Erie this evening ahead
of a cold front that will sweep east. The exception to this is east
of Conneaut where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect with southerly
winds forecast to increase into the 20-30 knot range. A broken line
of thunderstorms will accompany the front and some may be strong
with severe winds to 50 knots or large hail. Winds shift around to
the west behind the front at 15-20 knots and will maintain choppy
conditions on the east end of the lake through Saturday.

High pressure builds in across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with
winds decreasing and backing to southwest towards evening. A weak
area of low pressure will slide east across the central Great Lakes
Sunday night, pulling a weak cold front south across Lake Erie on
Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ148-149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Garnet
NEAR TERM...Garnet/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...KEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
303 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

LEZ142>144-162>164-OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-141915-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-Crawford-
303 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-020>023-029>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ003-141915-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lorain-Cuyahoga-
Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Richland-
Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Crawford-
303 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, mainly across northern Ohio. Damaging winds are the primary
threat, with an isolated tornado threat possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PAZ001-002-141915-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
303 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
815 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

OHZ010-011-013-020>022-140100-
Summit-Geauga-Portage-Medina-Lorain-Cuyahoga-
815 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PORTAGE...
SOUTHWESTERN GEAUGA...CUYAHOGA...NORTHEASTERN MEDINA...NORTHERN
SUMMIT AND EAST CENTRAL LORAIN COUNTIES...

At 815 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Cleveland to Parma to near Grafton.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Parma, Lakewood, Cleveland Heights, Strongsville,
Brunswick, Westlake, North Royalton, North Ridgeville, Solon, Hudson,
Twinsburg, Streetsboro, Warrensville Heights, Macedonia, Grafton,
South Russell, Highland Hills, Chesterland and Stow.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4118 8125 4126 8208 4139 8195 4148 8189
      4150 8180 4149 8174 4151 8169 4152 8128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 263DEG 24KT 4150 8174 4138 8175 4129 8195

Jaszka

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
817 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

OHZ028-029-037-140100-
Crawford-Richland-Morrow-
817 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN RICHLAND...MORROW AND
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

At 817 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Mount Gilead,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Mount Gilead, Galion, Ontario, Lexington, Crestline,
Cardington, Bellville, Ashley, Chesterville, Butler, Lucas, Edison,
Marengo, Fulton, Iberia and Shauck.

LAT...LON 4041 8293 4044 8303 4048 8302 4049 8296
      4062 8295 4065 8293 4065 8286 4071 8287
      4087 8271 4080 8239 4063 8234 4055 8250
      4055 8264 4047 8264 4036 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 238DEG 33KT 4062 8276

Clark

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
820 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERMILION               41.42N 82.35W
09/13/2019                   ERIE               OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 6.

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
829 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERMILION               41.42N 82.36W
09/13/2019                   ERIE               OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE FELL ON TO A BOAT.

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
842 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AVON                    41.45N 81.99W
09/13/2019                   LORAIN             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            12 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN.

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
908 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHAKER HEIGHTS          41.47N 81.57W
09/13/2019                   CUYAHOGA           OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            THROUGHOUT THE CITY.

&&

THOMPSON