Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
454 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front located from central lower Michigan and southwest
Ontario will settle south tonight into Lake Erie and sag further
south into central Ohio on Thursday. The front will drift north
Thursday night. A cold front will follow from the west Friday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and have
slowly increased in intensity this afternoon but have remain below
severe limits for the most part. Wind shear is highest further north
near Lake Erie with effective shear of 30-35 knots. LCL heights are
above 1000 m which will decrease the threat of tornadoes. PW values
are near 1.7" which has kept DCAPE generally below 700 J/KG. MLCAPE
has been around 1500 to near 2000 J/kg. There is just enough wind
shear over the northern counties of Ohio to sustain some
organization of the storms so the threat of damaging wind and
isolated 1" size hail will continue for the next several hours.

There will be diurnal stabilization of the boundary this evening so
convection should decrease but there is still a question of whether
or not more convection further north from Michigan will spread
southeast across the area after midnight. The cold front to the
north will move into Lake Erie late tonight and sag into the
southern Lake Erie lake shore Thursday morning and into central Ohio
during the afternoon. POPs will diminish during the morning and then
increase in the afternoon over the southwest part of the CWA.

The front will lift north Thursday night as a diffuse warm front
especially over the western part of the CWA.

With the frontal boundary in the area, temperatures will vary widely
from the north to the southern counties on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will pass north of Lake Superior on Friday, lifting
a warm front back north across the area. We will only be in the
warm sector for a relatively short window as the associated
cold front sweeps in from the west late Friday afternoon into
Friday night. Tried to refine pops on Friday, with the highest
values in NW Ohio during the afternoon, expanding east across
the area during the evening and overnight hours. Given the front
reaching northwest Ohio at peak heating, will need to monitor
for a few stronger storms Friday afternoon, mainly west of I-71.
Also raised highs a few degrees Friday, especially along the
northeast lakeshore where temperatures may over achieve with
southerly downsloping flow.

High pressure and drier conditions return on Saturday.
Temperatures will drop back to near or just slightly above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models show an amplifying upper level ridge building back over
the area for the first half of next week with above normal
temperatures appear likely through the long term. The GFS tries
to bring a wave of low pressure across the central Great Lakes
with a cold front pushing south into the area Monday night
followed by cooler temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday. Given
the strength of the upper ridge overhead, will lean towards the
other long range models with heat continuing into the middle of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Generally VFR conditions will continue into much of the
afternoon as showers and thunderstorms develop and increase in
coverage and intensity through 21 UTC. Cumulus field will
increase and become broken as well. MVFR conditions will develop
in the heavier downpours. Brief improvement can be expect early
this evening but lower clouds and some fog may develop after
midnight as the cold front to the north approaches from the
north along with lingering moisture in the boundary layer.  The
boundary will sag south into northern Ohio and nw PA Thursday
morning and bring IFR to MVFR cigs.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible in showers/thunderstorms
Thursday through Saturday morning and again in showers next week
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal boundary located just north of Lake Erie will push
south across the lake on Thursday with northeast winds
increasing to 15 to 25 knots from east to west during the
afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisories accomapnied by a
high swimming risk will likely be needed for most of the lake
east of the Islands Thursday afternoon and evening. Water levels
will also rise on western basin of Lake Erie with the east to
northeast flow Thursday night but at this time are expected to
peak at or below flooding levels.

This boundary will lift back north as a warm front on Friday
with a cold front sweeping east across Lake Erie on Friday
night. High pressure will expand from west to east behind the
front on Saturday and linger into the early part of next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LaPlante
MARINE...KEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1020 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-121430-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
1020 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop toward the middle of the afternoon and persist into the
evening. Storms may produce strong to perhaps damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
314 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

OHZ013-014-022-023-032-033-112000-
Geauga-Portage-Stark-Mahoning-Trumbull-Ashtabula Inland-
314 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TRUMBULL...
PORTAGE...MAHONING...SOUTHEASTERN GEAUGA...NORTHEASTERN
STARK AND SOUTHERN ASHTABULA COUNTIES...

At 312 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near North
Bloomfield, or 15 miles north of Warren, moving east at 15 mph.
Additional strong thunderstorms will affect portions of northeast
Ohio.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Youngstown, Warren, Salem, Ravenna, Columbiana, Boardman, Kent,
Alliance, Hudson, Niles, Tallmadge, Streetsboro, Campbell, Hubbard,
Canfield, Cortland, Newton Falls, Sebring, Mogadore and Lordstown.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4091 8108 4099 8139 4126 8140 4150 8123
      4157 8110 4158 8052 4090 8052 4090 8082
      4093 8083 4093 8089 4090 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 258DEG 14KT 4146 8080

Clark

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
417 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

OHZ014-023-112045-
Trumbull-Ashtabula Inland-
417 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TRUMBULL AND SOUTHERN
ASHTABULA COUNTIES...

At 417 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near North
Bloomfield, or 14 miles southeast of Chardon, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kinsman, North Bloomfield, Orwell, Andover, Mecca, Roaming Shores and
Cherry Valley.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4173 8053 4166 8051 4141 8052 4137 8093
      4155 8100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 252DEG 24KT 4148 8096

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
445 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NNE CORTLAND         41.46N 80.67W
09/11/2019                   TRUMBULL           OH   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES BRANCHES DOWN IN
            GUSTAVUS NEAR SR 193 AND SR 87.

&&

PS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
503 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

OHZ011>013-112130-
Geauga-Lake-Cuyahoga-
503 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GEAUGA...NORTHEASTERN
CUYAHOGA AND SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTIES...

At 503 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Cleveland
Heights, or near Cleveland, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Willowick, Chardon, Parma, Euclid, Mentor, Timberlake,
Lakeline, Chesterland, Garfield Heights, Shaker Heights and Maple
Heights.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4173 8112 4135 8113 4135 8151 4136 8176
      4149 8177 4150 8171 4153 8167 4153 8166
      4155 8163 4155 8162 4167 8145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 267DEG 22KT 4151 8159

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
506 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

PAZ002-003-112130-
Southern Erie-Crawford-
506 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL ERIE AND
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

At 506 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Harmonsburg, or
9 miles northwest of Meadville, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Edinboro, Cambridge Springs, Linesville, Harmonsburg, Guys
Mills, Saegertown, Conneautville, Springboro, Mill Village, Blooming
Valley, Townville, Venango, Woodcock and Conneaut Lakeshore.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4164 8042 4184 8046 4194 7991 4162 7985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 260DEG 15KT 4174 8029

KJ

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