River Flood Warning 58, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across the region tonight. A large
area of high pressure will build southeast through the Great
Lakes and Ohio valley Sunday through Tuesday night. Low pressure
will track east across the region midweek, with a frontal
boundary becoming stationary across the region through the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Robust convection developed given the favorable instability
across the area. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect
until 10 PM for northwest Ohio and areas extending east towards
Youngstown inland from Lake Erie. We are seeing a downward trend
to the convection as most of the area has been worked over at
this point however watches have been expanded back to the west
across southern lower Michigan and northern Indiana where a
reservoir of better instability remains. We will be continuing
to monitor the trajectory of this activity as it favors a
southeast direction overnight ahead of the cold front. Radar
precipitation estimates were running high due to the
considerable amount of hail that occurred this afternoon.
Despite this, some areas have received 3" inches or more of rain
across NW Ohio and additional thunderstorms could lead to flash
flooding.

Previous discussion...
Severe thunderstorm threat ramping up this afternoon across
northwest Ohio. Storms have fired across northwest PA as well on
a lake breeze, however the severe threat will remain more
isolated here over the next several hours with little shear. The
bigger threat at this point for northwest PA is pulse type
storms/downbursts as well as a heightened potential for flash
flooding with slow moving/training storms along the boundary.

Severe potential will maximize across the area through mid
evening hours, with 2-3k j/kg SBCAPE and 1-2k j/kg MLCAPE. MLCIN
continues to erode and storm coverage will expand with good
lapse rates across NW OH. Shear remains minimal across the area,
however will be increasing after 00Z. Damaging winds, large hail
and flash flooding are all possible.

The front will push south of the area overnight into Sunday
morning. Cloudy skies will begin clearing from the northwest
during the morning hours. Some instability driven showers are
possible, especially downwind of the lake, during the
morning hours before drier air moves in during the afternoon.
Below normal temps will infiltrate the area Sunday and Sunday
night. Highs will only reach the mid/upper 60s to around 70
Sunday, and lows will dip down into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure will be over the area Monday with northerly
winds. Lingering lake clouds will be hanging around for area near
the lakeshore of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The rest
of the area will see sunshine but temperatures will be much cooler.
High temperatures will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. The
center of the high moves across the area Monday evening with light
and variable winds. We will see another cool night Monday night with
overnight lows in the 40s. Southwesterly winds and moisture begins
to return on Tuesday on the backside of the high pressure.
Temperatures will start a warming trend on Tuesday. The next mid
level wave in a northwest flow will move across the region late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. We will see a good chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms by mid week with temperatures back to
seasonable levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary will drift southward across the area
Wednesday night. Areas south of this boundary will continue to see
the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The boundary
stalls out near northern or central Ohio Wednesday night into
Thursday. This boundary will be the focus for additional showers and
storm chances through the end of the week. An upper level low
pressure area will be moving across the central U.S. into the Ohio
River Valley by the end of the week. This upper level low combine
with a weak stalled out boundary in the region will keep scattered
rain chances through the end of the week. Temperatures will remain
seasonable as well.  We may have to keep an eye out for hydro
concerns if we see multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall for
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Thunderstorms activity continues to shift south across the area
but vigorous convection remains in an arc from near GRR to FDY
to south of CAK. FDY will continue to be impacted by
thunderstorms through 02-03Z while other terminals become more
intermittent and eventually transition to a period of rain
through 08Z or so as a frontal boundary sags south across the
area. VFR conditions expected in rain with any more robust
thunderstorms producing IFR conditions. Later tonight expect
MVFR ceilings to develop behind the front.

Winds will be variable across the area evening, and some
locations may try to shift around to the south ahead of the
front before eventually shifting to west and northwest
overnight. Gradual clearing of the low cloud will occur from the
northwest on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible east Sunday morning and again
Wednesday afternoon west.

&&

.MARINE...
The main concern for boaters this afternoon and evening will be the
scattered strong to severe convection over the lake as well as
erratic severe wind gusts from that convection. A frontal boundary
will be drifting across the lake this evening. Winds will start out
southwesterly 10 to 20 knots but become northerly late tonight into
Sunday behind the passage of the front. Northwest winds will
increase 10 to 20 knots by Sunday afternoon and night with waves
also increasing. Canadian high pressure will build over the lake
Monday. Northwest winds will still remain 10 to 20 knots early on
Monday then becoming light and variable by Monday evening. Southwest
winds return 10 to 15 knots by Tuesday. Another frontal boundary
will move down and stall out near the lake by mid week with variable
and changing wind directions. Also there will be scattered storms
over the lake for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...KEC/Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...KEC/Greenawalt
MARINE...Griffin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
442 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

LEZ061-142-148-149-162-168-169-OHZ003-014-023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-022045-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-
Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-
Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
442 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening. Some
may approach severe limits with large hail to one inch and gusty
winds to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ143>147-163>167-022045-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
442 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ006>013-017>022-022045-
Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
442 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
907 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             4 SE NEW RIEGEL         41.01N 83.28W
06/01/2019  E1.00 INCH       SENECA             OH   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL ON 587 JUST OUTSIDE
            MCCUTCHENSVILLE.

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
909 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE UNION CITY         41.90N 79.83W
06/01/2019                   ERIE               PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED IN UNION CITY WITH
            PICTURE ON TWITTER.

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW CAMBRIDGE SPRINGS 41.78N 80.07W
06/01/2019                   CRAWFORD           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            CRAWFORD COUNTY SHERIFF DISPATCH REPORTS
            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.
            SEVERAL TREES FELL ONTO POWER LINES AND
            SPARKED FIRES IN A FEW CASES. GENERAL TIME
            OF WIND DAMAGE WAS 6PM TO 630PM.

&&

SEFCOVIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
931 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW PORTAGE           41.30N 83.67W
06/01/2019  M4.00 INCH       WOOD               OH   PUBLIC

&&

KEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PEMBERVILLE             41.41N 83.46W
06/01/2019  M2.41 INCH       WOOD               OH   PUBLIC

&&

KEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1016 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N FOSTORIA            41.19N 83.42W
06/01/2019  M4.25 INCH       SENECA             OH   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL.

&&

PS