Alert archive / Ohio / Flood Watches in 2019

Flood Watch 2, NWS Cleveland, OH

February 6, 201924 counties in Ohio; Crawford County, Erie County, Pennsylvania

NWS Cleveland, OH issued this flood watch at Feb 6, 2019, 3:25 PM EST for 24 counties in Ohio; Crawford County, Erie County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Feb 7, 2019, 4:00 AM EST. It was in force for 21 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 6, 2019, 3:25 PM EST (20:25 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 7, 2019, 4:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 8, 2019, 12:49 AM EST
In force
21 hr
Issued by
NWS Cleveland, OH
Flood severity
None
All 26 counties

Ashland County, OH, Ashtabula County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Erie County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Huron County, OH, Knox County, OH, Lake County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Portage County, OH, Richland County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Wyandot County, OH, Crawford County, PA, Erie County, PA

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2019-02-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2019-02-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 251 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
807 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
251 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
266 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

530 
WGUS61 KCLE 062025
FFACLE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
325 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...Moderate to Heavy Rain Expected Thursday Elevating Flood 
Risk...

.Rain with embedded thunderstorms will move into the area
Thursday through Thursday evening. Saturated ground and already 
elevated rivers and streams will heighten the risk for flooding. 
Additionally, the potential for localized ice jams on area creeks 
and rivers will continue into Thursday. Rain may briefly mix with 
or change to snow before ending Thursday night. 

OHZ009-010-019-020-027>031-036>038-047-070430-
/O.NEW.KCLE.FA.A.0002.190207T0900Z-190208T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie-Lorain-Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Lorain, Norwalk, Medina, 
Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Marion, 
Mount Gilead, Millersburg, and Mount Vernon
325 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of north central Ohio, northeast 
  Ohio, and northwest Ohio, including the following areas, in 
  north central Ohio, Ashland, Crawford, Erie, Huron, Knox, 
  Lorain, Marion, Morrow, and Richland. In northeast Ohio, 
  Holmes, Medina, and Wayne. In northwest Ohio, Wyandot. 

* From late tonight through late Thursday night

* Moderate to heavy rainfall with showers and isolated
  thunderstorms will bring up to one to two inches of additional
  rain to the region. Saturated grounds and elevated rivers and
  streams in advance of the rain have elevated the flood risk. 

* River Flooding will be likely. Flooding of low lying and poor
  drainage areas are likely to flood. This may result in driving 
  difficulties or even possible road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.
Monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood
warnings. Those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to
take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding
develops.

&&

$$

OHZ011>014-021>023-032-033-089-PAZ001>003-070430-
/O.NEW.KCLE.FA.A.0002.190207T1500Z-190208T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Stark-Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Crawford-
Including the cities of Cleveland, Mentor, Chardon, Jefferson, 
Akron, Ravenna, Warren, Canton, Youngstown, Ashtabula, Erie, 
Edinboro, and Meadville
325 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of northeast Ohio and northwest 
  Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in northeast 
  Ohio, Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, Cuyahoga, Geauga, 
  Lake, Mahoning, Portage, Stark, Summit, and Trumbull. In 
  northwest Pennsylvania, Crawford, Northern Erie, and Southern 
  Erie. 

* From Thursday morning through late Thursday night

* Moderate to heavy rainfall with showers and isolated
  thunderstorms will bring up to one to two inches of additional
  rain to the region. Saturated grounds and elevated rivers and
  streams in advance of the rain have elevated the flood risk. 

* River Flooding will be likely. Flooding of low lying and poor
  drainage areas are likely to flood. This may result in driving 
  difficulties or even possible road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.
Monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood
warnings. Those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to
take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding
develops.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
804 
WGUS61 KCLE 070257
FFACLE

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
957 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...Moderate to Heavy Rain Expected Thursday Elevating Flood
Risk...

.Rain with embedded thunderstorms will move into the area
Thursday through Thursday evening. Saturated ground and already
elevated rivers and streams will heighten the risk for flooding.
Additionally, the potential for localized ice jams on area creeks
and rivers will continue into Thursday. Rain may briefly mix with
or change to snow before ending Thursday night.

OHZ009-010-019-020-027>031-036>038-047-071200-
/O.CON.KCLE.FA.A.0002.190207T0900Z-190208T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie-Lorain-Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Lorain, Norwalk, Medina, 
Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Marion, 
Mount Gilead, Millersburg, and Mount Vernon
957 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST THURSDAY THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, and northwest 
  Ohio, including the following areas, in north central Ohio, 
  Ashland, Crawford, Erie, Huron, Knox, Lorain, Marion, Morrow, 
  and Richland. In northeast Ohio, Holmes, Medina, and Wayne. In 
  northwest Ohio, Wyandot. 

* From 4 AM EST Thursday through late Thursday night

* Moderate to heavy rainfall with showers and isolated 
  thunderstorms will bring up to one to two inches of additional 
  rain to the region. Saturated grounds and elevated rivers and 
  streams in advance of the rain have elevated the flood risk. 

* River Flooding will be likely. Flooding of low lying and poor 
  drainage areas are likely to flood. This may result in driving 
  difficulties or even possible road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.
Monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood
warnings. Those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to
take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding
develops.

&&

$$

OHZ011>014-021>023-032-033-089-PAZ001>003-071200-
/O.CON.KCLE.FA.A.0002.190207T1500Z-190208T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Stark-Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Crawford-
Including the cities of Cleveland, Mentor, Chardon, Jefferson, 
Akron, Ravenna, Warren, Canton, Youngstown, Ashtabula, Erie, 
Edinboro, and Meadville
957 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania, 
  including the following areas, in northeast Ohio, Ashtabula 
  Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Mahoning, 
  Portage, Stark, Summit, and Trumbull. In northwest 
  Pennsylvania, Crawford, Northern Erie, and Southern Erie. 

* From Thursday morning through late Thursday night

* Moderate to heavy rainfall with showers and isolated 
  thunderstorms will bring up to one to two inches of additional 
  rain to the region. Saturated grounds and elevated rivers and 
  streams in advance of the rain have elevated the flood risk. 

* River Flooding will be likely. Flooding of low lying and poor 
  drainage areas are likely to flood. This may result in driving 
  difficulties or even possible road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.
Monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood
warnings. Those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to
take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding
develops.

&&

$$
076 
WGUS61 KCLE 070842
FFACLE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
342 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...Moderate to Heavy Rain Expected through this evening...

.Rain with embedded thunderstorms will move into the area
by late morning and continue into this evening. Saturated ground 
and already elevated rivers and streams will heighten the risk for
flooding. Additionally, the potential for localized ice jams on 
area creeks and rivers will continue. 

OHZ017-018-071645-
/O.EXA.KCLE.FA.A.0002.190207T0900Z-190208T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hancock-Seneca-
Including the cities of Findlay and Tiffin
342 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has expanded the

* Flood Watch to include a portion of northwest Ohio, including 
  the following areas, Hancock and Seneca. 

* Through late tonight

* Moderate to heavy rainfall with periods of rain and scattered 
  thunderstorms will produce one to locally two inches of 
  additional rain to the region. Saturated grounds and elevated 
  rivers and streams in advance of the rain have elevated the 
  flood risk. 

* River Flooding will be likely. Flooding of low lying and poor 
  drainage areas are likely to flood. This may result in driving 
  difficulties or even possible road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.
Monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood
warnings. Those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to
take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding
develops.

&&

$$

OHZ009-010-019-020-027>031-036>038-047-071645-
/O.CON.KCLE.FA.A.0002.190207T0900Z-190208T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie-Lorain-Huron-Medina-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Lorain, Norwalk, Medina, 
Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Marion, 
Mount Gilead, Millersburg, and Mount Vernon
342 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, and northwest 
  Ohio, including the following areas, in north central Ohio, 
  Ashland, Crawford, Erie, Huron, Knox, Lorain, Marion, Morrow, 
  and Richland. In northeast Ohio, Holmes, Medina, and Wayne. In 
  northwest Ohio, Wyandot. 

* Through late tonight

* Moderate to heavy rainfall with period of rain and scattered 
  thunderstorms will produce one to locally two inches of 
  additional rain to the region. Saturated grounds and elevated 
  rivers and streams in advance of the rain have elevated the 
  flood risk. 

* River Flooding will be likely. Flooding of low lying and poor 
  drainage areas are likely to flood. This may result in driving 
  difficulties or even possible road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.
Monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood
warnings. Those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to
take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding
develops.

&&

$$

OHZ011>014-021>023-032-033-089-PAZ001>003-071645-
/O.CON.KCLE.FA.A.0002.190207T1500Z-190208T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Stark-Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Crawford-
Including the cities of Cleveland, Mentor, Chardon, Jefferson, 
Akron, Ravenna, Warren, Canton, Youngstown, Ashtabula, Erie, 
Edinboro, and Meadville
342 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania, 
  including the following areas, in northeast Ohio, Ashtabula 
  Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Mahoning, 
  Portage, Stark, Summit, and Trumbull. In northwest 
  Pennsylvania, Crawford, Northern Erie, and Southern Erie. 

* From 10 AM EST this morning through late tonight

* Moderate to heavy rainfall with periods of rain and scattered 
  thunderstorms will produce one to locally two inches of 
  additional rain to the region. Saturated grounds and elevated 
  rivers and streams in advance of the rain have elevated the 
  flood risk. 

* River Flooding will be likely. Flooding of low lying and poor 
  drainage areas are likely to flood. This may result in driving 
  difficulties or even possible road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.
Monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood
warnings. Those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to
take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding
develops.

&&

$$
150 
WGUS61 KCLE 071638
FFACLE

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1138 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...Moderate to Heavy Rain Expected through this evening...

.Rain with embedded thunderstorms will move into the area this
afternoon and continue into this evening. Saturated ground and 
already elevated rivers and streams will heighten the risk for 
flooding. Additionally, the potential for localized ice jams on 
area creeks and rivers will continue.

OHZ009>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-080045-
/O.CON.KCLE.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-190208T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-
Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Lorain, Cleveland, Mentor, 
Chardon, Jefferson, Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk, Medina, Akron, 
Ravenna, Warren, Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, 
Wooster, Canton, Youngstown, Marion, Mount Gilead, Millersburg, 
Mount Vernon, Ashtabula, Erie, Edinboro, and Meadville
1138 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania, including the 
  following areas, in Ohio, Ashland, Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula 
  Lakeshore, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga, Hancock, Holmes, 
  Huron, Knox, Lake, Lorain, Mahoning, Marion, Medina, Morrow, 
  Portage, Richland, Seneca, Stark, Summit, Trumbull, Wayne, and 
  Wyandot. In northwest Pennsylvania, Crawford, Northern Erie, 
  and Southern Erie. 

* Through late tonight

* Moderate to heavy rainfall with periods of rain and scattered 
  thunderstorms will produce one to locally two inches of 
  additional rain to the region. Saturated grounds and elevated 
  rivers and streams in advance of the rain have elevated the 
  flood risk. 

* River Flooding will be likely. Flooding of low lying and poor 
  drainage areas are likely to flood. This may result in driving 
  difficulties or even possible road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.
Monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood
warnings. Those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to
take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding
develops.

&&

$$
822 
WGUS61 KCLE 072344
FFACLE

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
644 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...Moderate to Heavy Rain Expected through this evening...

.Locally heavy rain will continue for several more hours with
runoff continuing through the night. Saturated ground and already
elevated rivers and streams will heighten the risk for flooding. 
Additionally, the potential for localized ice jams on area creeks 
and rivers will continue.

OHZ009>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-080900-
/O.CON.KCLE.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-190208T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-
Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Lorain, Cleveland, Mentor, 
Chardon, Jefferson, Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk, Medina, Akron, 
Ravenna, Warren, Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, 
Wooster, Canton, Youngstown, Marion, Mount Gilead, Millersburg, 
Mount Vernon, Ashtabula, Erie, Edinboro, and Meadville
644 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania, including the 
  following areas, in Ohio, Ashland, Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula 
  Lakeshore, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga, Hancock, Holmes, 
  Huron, Knox, Lake, Lorain, Mahoning, Marion, Medina, Morrow, 
  Portage, Richland, Seneca, Stark, Summit, Trumbull, Wayne, and 
  Wyandot. In northwest Pennsylvania, Crawford, Northern Erie, 
  and Southern Erie. 

* Until 4 AM EST Friday

* Moderate to heavy rainfall will produce an additional half to
  three quarters of an inch east of I-71 during the remainder of
  the evening and into the early overnight. This is in addition to
  the half to one inch that has already fallen. Saturated grounds
  and elevated rivers and streams in advance of the rain have 
  elevated the flood risk.
 
* River Flooding will be likely. Flooding of low lying and poor 
  drainage areas are likely to flood. This may result in driving 
  difficulties or even possible road closures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch is issued when there is a potential for flooding.
Monitor the forecast and remain alert for possible flood
warnings. Those in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to
take action should a flood warning be issued or if flooding
develops.

&&

$$
301 
WGUS61 KCLE 080549
FFACLE

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1249 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

OHZ009>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-080700-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-190208T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-
Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-
Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Lorain, Cleveland, Mentor, 
Chardon, Jefferson, Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk, Medina, Akron, 
Ravenna, Warren, Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, 
Wooster, Canton, Youngstown, Marion, Mount Gilead, Millersburg, 
Mount Vernon, Ashtabula, Erie, Edinboro, and Meadville
1249 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for portions of Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania
has been cancelled. The heavy rainfall has ended. Water will
continue to flow into area creeks and rivers through the night
with additional rises possible. Monitor river flood products for
additional details. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Feb 6, 12:46 PM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 6, 12:46 PM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1246 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front has lifted northward to central Ohio early this
morning and may reach the south shore of Lake Erie by late
morning. Low pressure over the Central Plains will move east
along this front and deepen as it reaches the Great Lakes
region on Thursday. This low will depart into Canada on Friday,
extending a cold front across the area in the process. High
pressure will build into the central United States for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Update...have adjusted precip timing into early evening based on
current movement and radar trends.  Otherwise no big changes.

Previous Discussion...
Still seeing some freezing rain and maybe some sleet across NW
Ohio early this morning. Model and AMDAR soundings across the
area indicate that there is a very warm layer around 3000 feet
this morning. So there should be very little supercooled water
falling to the surface. Fortunately ODOT road sensors are near
to slightly above freezing. However there are a few mesonet
sites that are indicating that temperatures are below freezing,
mainly across northern and eastern Lucas County into Ottawa
County. This is likely due the easterly winds funneling the
cooler air over the ice covered western basin of Lake Erie into
this region. So with that said we will keep the Winter Weather
Advisory going for at least a couple more hours as we attempt to
get some slightly warmer air to move northward. Area webcams do
not indicate significant icing but any elevated untreated
surface may be slick. The only other area we may need to monitor
for some icing will be along the Erie, PA lakeshore. If it
occurs here we believe it will be very brief so no advisory
planned.

Elsewhere temperatures have warmed enough that we should avoid
the wintry mix. The addition of a quarter to half an inch of
rain today should add a bit of water to the rivers. This will
add to the concerns along area rivers where the ice is slowly
breaking up. There have been some minor ice jams reported to us
yesterday and we will continue to monitor closely, especially
with the additional of more water. Do not anticipate any
widespread issue with flooding today so we will not go with a
watch yet.

There looks like there will be a lull in the rainfall by this
afternoon into tonight. The next wave will approach the region
on Thursday with heavier rainfall amounts a good bet. If these
trends continue we will likely need a flood watch for Thursday
into Thursday night. Stay tuned.

temperatures will be above seasonal averages today and will
range from the lower 40s across NW OH to the mid 50s south. All
locations should remain above freezing tonight with lows from
the mid 30s north to the mid 40s south. The warmth will
continue into Thursday with highs in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level low pressure system will move east across the area
Thursday night and allow much colder air to the return to the local
area.  A broad upper level ridge will build east over the weekend.
The upper level low pressure system will result in cyclogenesis
occurring over the Oklahoma Panhandle at the surface.  The surface
low will deepen rapidly as the upper level low pressure system
develops in the negatively tilted trough axis.  The surface low will
track northeast into the western Great Lakes region forcing a cold
front east across the region Thursday night.  Showers will move west
to east in advance of the front Thursday night and the precipitation
will change over to snow showers as the sharply colder air arrives.
Some lake effect snow showers will occur Friday over the northeast
snowbelt. Light snow shower activity will occur over the western
portions as a result of flow off Lake Michigan.  Strong high
pressure will build east to Pennsylvania by Saturday night and the
cold air advection will begin to cease. Thursday night's low
temperature could very well wind up being Friday's high as
temperatures will fall through the day Friday into the teens by
evening. The strong cold air advection that will take place will
drop temperatures to between 10 and 15 degrees Friday night with a
slight recovery into the lower to middle 20s on Saturday. Slightly
warmer temperatures are expected Saturday night as southeast to east
flow develops.  However, with high center being relatively close and
if winds go calm, my lows may be too warm due to heat loss under
clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fast moving shortwave trough will move east across the area Sunday
night with a weak wave of low pressure and surface trough.  This
feature will swing some generous moisture into the area Sunday night
and produce another round of precipitation in the form of snow as
temperatures will be in the middle 20s Sunday night and lower to
middle 30s Monday for highs.  High pressure ridge will build east
across the area Monday followed by another surface and upper level
low pressure system.  The upper level low will move east into the
central Great Lakes while the surface feature moves east into the
Ohio Valley and then moves northeast across the forecast area by
Wednesday morning.  This storm system will bring yet another round
of snow Monday night transitioning into a mix of rain/snow by
Tuesday as warm air advection begins to take place on the east side
of the low pressure system. Cold air advection will return Tuesday
night into Wednesday on the back side of the low pressure system
resulting into a change back over to all snow. Moderating
temperatures will take place Sunday through Tuesday and then turning
colder for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Widespread IFR will continue today through tonight and into
Thursday. Rain will continue into the afternoon tapering from
the west mid afternoon through early evening. Precip will be
light overnight however low CIGS and fog will persist. Heavier
rain and even possibly a thunderstorm will develop on Thursday
across much of the area.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Thursday night through Friday morning in
periods of rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Variable light winds will persist across the lake today through
Thursday morning.  A fairly strong low level jet stream will set-up
over the lake by Thursday evening and this will cause winds on the
lake to increase out of the southwest.  Expecting winds to approach
gale force Thursday night and then diminish with time Friday.  The
winds will then become light and variable again over the weekend.
May need a gale watch for Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...TK/MM
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Lombardy
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 6, 4:34 AM EST, 10 hours 51 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
434 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

OHZ008>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-070945-
Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-
Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
434 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for heavy rain Thursday which could have
possible significant impacts to the rivers and streams across the
area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006-007-070945-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-
434 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for heavy rain Thursday which could have
possible significant impacts to the rivers and streams across the
area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-070945-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
434 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Winds may increase to Gales Thursday night into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Cleveland, OH issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 5, 9:11 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningCLETrumbull3 days
Feb 6, 8:38 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningCLEMarion5 days
Feb 6, 10:27 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryCLELucas, Wood24 hr
Feb 6, 2:09 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningCLEHancock40 hr
Feb 6, 3:42 PM ESTDense Fog AdvisoryCLEAshland, Ashtabula, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga and 22 more17 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in Ohio, 2019Flood Watches in Pennsylvania, 2019Every flood watch in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.