Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
606 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the area this evening.
High pressure will then prevail Friday into early next week,
followed by a possible return of unsettled weather into the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Radar shows a line of showers and thunderstorms in the process
of moving through our area. These storms are are associated
with a rapidly approaching cold front and mid-level troughing.
SPC Mesoscale Analysis continues to show MLCAPEs 1,500-2,000
J/kg ahead of the front. This instability is due to above normal
temperatures and dew points are in the lower to mid 70s.
Effective bulk shear values are expected to exceed 50 kt across
most of our area. The line of convection should make it to the
coast by about 9 PM. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains up for
some of our far inland counties. The main threats are damaging
winds given the shear and strong mid level winds. The worst
conditions are still forecasted to remain to our north, due to
the mid-level energy within a trough and the jet stream being
located there.

Once the front moves through later this evening, conditions
will rapidly improve as high pressure builds in from the west.
It's possible many locations will see clear to mostly clear
skies. Combined with the northwest winds and cold air advection,
lows will fall into the 40s and 50s.

Lake Winds...Cold air advection following the departing cold front
could allow northwest winds to gust near 25 kt across Lake Moultrie
tonight. A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday: Strong high pressure will build across the region to start
off the weekend behind a cold front departing well offshore. The
setup will result in dry weather conditions and strong cold air
advection to area, which will help produce some breezy conditions
near the coast through late morning and much cooler temps compared
to those earlier in the week. Despite sunny skies and a west-
southwest flow regime, afternoon highs should only peak in the mid
60s. Low pressure is then expected to develop along the cold front
offshore Friday night, potentially resulting in a few showers along
coastal Georgia where weak isentropic lift develops and low-lvl
moisture lingers. Further inland, winds will likely decouple as
skies remain clear, setting up fair radiational cooling conditions.
Some locations well inland could dip into the upper 30s late, but
frost is not anticipated to develop at this time. Closer to the
coast, low temps should range in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

Saturday and Sunday: A few showers are possible along coastal
locations Saturday morning, before a large mid/upper lvl trough of
low pressure with an embedded h5 shortwave drives low pressure
further north-northeast and away from the region late Saturday into
Sunday. As this process unfolds, high pressure is expected to build
across the region in its wake. The pattern will result in dry and
cool conditions across the Southeast United States Saturday
afternoon into Sunday. In general, temps should modify a few degrees
on Saturday with a light downsloping wind in advance of the
mid/upper trough, peaking in the upper 60s across most areas.
Saturday night lows should once again cool to around 40 well inland
and to the upper 40s to middle 50s near the coast. Temps should only
peak in the mid 60s on Sunday as sfc winds turn more north-northeast
and high pressure continues to build across the region, then becomes
centered over the Mid-Atlantic states.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moderate confidence this period. No significant weather concerns
through Sunday night as cooler and drier high pressure builds in
from the north. On Monday, moisture and upper forcing look to
increase and could lead to some showers through mid week as a
coastal front and/or low develop over or near the area. Temperatures
will likely stay below normal through Monday before getting back
above normal. Could see some of the normally colder inland rural
areas dip into the upper 30s Sunday night but the risk for frost
appears low.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z TAFs: A strong cold front will move through the region this
evening. Ahead of the front, gusty SW winds will prevail. A
band of showers and some thunderstorms associated with the
front are expected to bring MVFR to the two TAF sites from
about 23-03Z. We may need to refine this based on future radar
trends and upstream observations. A brief window of IFR cannot
be ruled out. Behind the front, conditions quickly improve to
VFR. Winds should stay gusty in the first part of the night,
then ease as they transition to the N on Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail at both CHS
and SAV terminals through Monday. However, there is a risk for
flight restrictions at both terminals late Friday night into early
Saturday due to low clouds, then again Monday night when the
potential for showers develop across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all of the
Atlantic waters in the wake of a strong cold front. Winds will
increase down river with jetting effects and there may be a
small time period with Small Craft wind gusts (>=25 kt) for the
Charleston Harbor.

Friday through Tuesday: Strong high pressure will build across the
area behind a slowly departing cold front Friday, leading to an
enhanced pressure gradient across all coastal waters and the
continuation of Small Craft Advisories across most waters into late
Friday morning. Thereafter, low pressure should develop along the
front offshore Saturday, then shift north-northeast of the area
while high pressure continues to build over the region late weekend
into early next week. The setup could create another short period of
Small Craft Advisories for most waters outside the CHS Harbor late
Saturday night into early Sunday before conditions improve early
next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ350-352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ374.

&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
402 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

GAZ087-088-099-100-SCZ040-012015-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Allendale-
402 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

GAZ101-SCZ042>045-047>052-012015-
Effingham-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
402 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds
are possible this evening ahead of an approaching cold front, mainly
away from the coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ114>119-137>141-012015-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
Tattnall-Evans-Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-
Coastal Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-
Coastal McIntosh-
402 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
southeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
658 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

GAZ088-100-101-SCZ042-047-312330-
Bulloch-Screven-Effingham-Inland Jasper-Hampton-
658 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SCREVEN...BULLOCH...
EFFINGHAM...HAMPTON AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 658 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Newington to
near Leefield, and moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Springfield, Guyton, Oliver, Garnett, Egypt, Shawnee, Pineland and
Robertville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 8114 3231 8124 3233 8164 3259 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 258DEG 39KT 3262 8146 3238 8159

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
721 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

SCZ042>044-047-312345-
Inland Jasper-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-
721 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HAMPTON...COLLETON...
DORCHESTER AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 721 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Lodge to Garnett,
and moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Yemassee, Colleton, Varnville, Reevesville, Smoaks, Lodge, Williams
and Ruffin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3268 8088 3264 8115 3305 8103 3310 8095
      3310 8093 3306 8090 3309 8088 3310 8089
      3313 8089 3328 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 250DEG 34KT 3309 8097 3261 8123

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