Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
205 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will advance toward the Southeast today into
Sunday, before a cold front pushes through the area Sunday
night. Drier high pressure with then prevail into the middle of
next week. Unsettled weather could then return by the end of
the week as another storm system approaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This Afternoon: Deep moisture will continue to advect over the
Southeast United States as a broad mid/upper lvl trough of low
pressure advances over the Mississippi River Valley with a south
extending cold front shifting across the Deep South. South/southwest
winds well ahead of this system will help draw moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico into the area by mid afternoon, setting up at
least chances of showers/thunderstorms across areas away from
the coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already
developed across inland areas of Southeast Georgia and Southeast
South Carolina, mainly along and west of the I-95 corridor.
Coverage should gradually peak mid to late afternoon and track
northeast across the area, with perhaps even numerous
showers/thunderstorms inland where latest mesoanalysis indicates
SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg, DCAPE between 800-1000 J/kg and PWATs
approaching 1.6-1.7 inches. A seabreeze circulation should keep
much of the convection away from the immediate coast. Pulse type
convection should remain sub-severe over the next hour or two,
but could gradually become stronger clusters during peak diurnal
heating. Although wind fields are not particularly impressive,
we can not rule out a few stronger or perhaps an isolated severe
thunderstorm well inland where greatest instability/moisture
coincides with initial forcing associated with a h5 shortwave
arriving from the west. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the
main threat should a strong and/or severe thunderstorm occur.
Brief moderate/heavy rainfall is also possible given PWATs
around 1.75 inches later in the day. High temps will be warm,
reaching the mid/upper 80s away from the coast.

Tonight: Some uncertainty exists in how worked over the environment
will become by this evening. However, light and steady return flow
could maintain weak instability through much of the night. A few to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
overnight. Latest CAMs also indicate a cluster of remnant showers
and isolated thunderstorms arriving after 09Z. Low temps will remain
mild, only dipping into the upper 60s inland to lower 70s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Moderate to high confidence this period. A cold front approaching
from the west Sunday will likely produce numerous showers and
thunderstorms and with sufficient instability and deep layer (0-6
km) shear of 30-35 kt in place there could be a few severe storms
with damaging winds. The front will push through Sunday night with
high pressure building in Monday and Tuesday, although not expecting
much of an airmass changes. Thus, a few showers and storms will
remain possible at times in the onshore flow. Temperatures will stay
well above normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moderate confidence this period. Mainly dry high pressure should
prevail through Tuesday night with greater forecast uncertainty
thereafter as models differ with respect to the timing of another
approaching cold front and upper shortwave energy. For now we kept
rain chances minimal but will likely need to be raised at some point
once confidence increases. Temperatures will stay above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated this afternoon into early evening, some of which will
likely impact the CHS and SAV terminals starting between 18-19Z
and persisting until 22-23z. MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible
during showers or thunderstorms with potentially IFR vsbys
during heavy bouts of rain. Wind gusts around 20 kt are also
possible. VCSH could linger around the terminals into early
tonight and latest guidance indicates another round of
showers/thunderstorms potentially passing through the area late
tonight. However, confidence remains too low to include late
showers/thunderstorms in the 18Z TAF issuance. Gusty southwest
winds are expected to develop at both terminals late morning
Sunday, with gusts up to around 20 kt by 18Z Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible by early Sunday afternoon,
which could need to be included in future TAF issuances.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions likely at times
Sunday due to showers/thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Mainly
VFR thereafter until a better chance of showers/storms returns,
possibly as early as Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
This Afternoon and Tonight: A broad area of low pressure will track
from the southern Mississippi River Valley this afternoon to the
southern Appalachians by this evening. The low is anticipated to
further organize and gradually deepen over Virgina tonight. The
pattern will will support conditions that remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels across coastal waters. In general, southwest winds
will gust up to 15-20 kt today and tonight, highest across northern
South Carolina waters. Seas will range between 2-4 ft, highest
across northern South Carolina waters and offshore Georgia
waters.

Sunday through Thursday: Breezy southwest winds will prevail ahead
of an approaching cold front which will push through Sunday night.
Not expecting Small Craft Advisories at this point however. Onshore
winds will prevail through mid week with wind/sea conditions likely
staying below Advisory levels.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continues through today.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high min temps for May 4:
KCHS: 70/1990
KCXM: 73/last set in 1990
KSAV: 70/last set in 1984

Record high min temps for May 5:
KCHS: 70/last set in 1996
KCXM: 73/last set in 2012
KSAV: 70/last set in 2012

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
319 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-051930-
Coastal Bryan-Coastal Chatham-Coastal Liberty-Coastal McIntosh-
Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
319 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk for Rip Currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk for Rip Currents.

Severe Thunderstorms: A weak cold front will approach the area from
the west on Sunday and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to move across southeast South Carolina and southeast
Georgia. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong or
marginally severe, and the primary threat will be damaging wind
gusts. The main time period for severe thunderstorms will be the
afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

SCZ052-051930-
Tidal Berkeley-
319 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe Thunderstorms: A weak cold front will approach the area from
the west on Sunday and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to move across southeast South Carolina and southeast
Georgia. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong or
marginally severe, and the primary threat will be damaging wind
gusts. The main time period for severe thunderstorms will be the
afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-051930-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
319 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe Thunderstorms: A weak cold front will approach the area from
the west on Sunday and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to move across southeast South Carolina and southeast
Georgia. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong or
marginally severe, and the primary threat will be damaging wind
gusts. The main time period for severe thunderstorms will be the
late afternoon through early evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-SCZ040-042>045-047-051930-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Inland Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Inland McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-
319 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
progress northeast across the area late this afternoon into early
evening. A few thunderstorms could be strong and/or severe with
damaging wind gusts, hail and frequent lightning, especially across
inland areas in Southeast South Carolina.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe Thunderstorms: A weak cold front will approach the area from
the west on Sunday and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to move across southeast South Carolina and southeast
Georgia. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong or
marginally severe, and the primary threat will be damaging wind
gusts. The main time period for severe thunderstorms will be the
afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

SCZ042-041900-
Hampton-
236 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HAMPTON COUNTY...

At 236 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Estill, or 7 miles southwest of Lake Warren
State Park, moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Hampton, Lake Warren State Park, Varnville, Estill, Gifford, Luray,
Crocketville and Lena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 8101 3272 8106 3271 8134 3277 8134
      3279 8133 3284 8126 3287 8127 3288 8127
      3294 8104
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 255DEG 13KT 3277 8128

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
327 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

GAZ101-118-119-SCZ047-048-051-042000-
Effingham-Coastal Chatham-Inland Chatham-Inland Jasper-Coastal
Jasper-Beaufort-
327 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EFFINGHAM...
CHATHAM...BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 326 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Savannah Airport, or near Pooler, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Savannah, Pooler, Bluffton, Bellinger Hill Area, Garden City, Port
Wentworth, Hardeeville and Bloomingdale.

The Savannah International Airport reported a 49 mph wind gust at
324 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3202 8120 3217 8132 3239 8105 3216 8086
      3214 8089
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 235DEG 17KT 3214 8119

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
334 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

GAZ088-SCZ040-042-042000-
Screven-Allendale-Hampton-
334 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SCREVEN...HAMPTON AND
ALLENDALE COUNTIES...

At 334 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Burtons Ferry Landing, or 12 miles southwest
of Allendale, moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...Allendale,
Fairfax, Brunson, Sycamore, Seigling, Barton, Appleton, Burtons
Ferry Landing, and the Cooterfest in Allendale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 8113 3279 8150 3294 8161 3310 8138
      3311 8137 3311 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 235DEG 21KT 3291 8149

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
339 PM EDT SAT MAY 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             5 ESE ISLANDTON         32.89N  80.85W
05/04/2019  E1.00 INCH       COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF STATE ROUTE 21 AND SC HIGHWAY 63. TIME
            WAS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR DATA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1900323

SPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
340 PM EDT SAT MAY 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAVANNAH AIRPORT        32.13N  81.20W
05/04/2019  M49 MPH          CHATHAM            GA   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1900324

SPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
402 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

SCZ040-042-043-042030-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-
402 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HAMPTON...COLLETON
AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...

At 401 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Barton, or near Allendale, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...Allendale, the
Cooterfest in Allendale, Fairfax, Brunson, Sycamore, Ulmer,
Seigling, Millett and Martin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 8137 3312 8120 3305 8113 3305 8110
      3303 8108 3306 8103 3301 8097 3287 8129
      3312 8159 3316 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 222DEG 14KT 3296 8130