Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
143 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to move into the area late this
afternoon, then linger into Friday before slowly moving
offshore. Atlantic high pressure will rebuild over the weekend
and prevail into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Refreshed the POPs/Weather grids based on the latest CAMs, which
show convection developing along the seabreeze and along a
boundary to the west this afternoon. These storms are forecast
to move very slowly to the SE. However, new convection should
develop along outflow boundaries. By the heat of the afternoon,
it appears that scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will develop over the CWA, greatest coverage over GA. It is
possible that 1 or 2 of these storms could produce isolated
damaging wind gusts. The convection should gradually dissipate
during the evening hours, especially inland. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms may linger over and near the marine
zones tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the
mid 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday as
the front remains stalled over the area and a series of upper
shortwaves move through. A very juicy airmass will remain in
place with PWATs approaching 2.5" in the afternoon. 0-6 km wind
will be around 10 kt from the southwest. The result will be
slow-moving storms that could repeatedly move over the same
areas. Thus, localized flooding will be the main concern.

A very similar pattern will continue into Friday. PWATs may
actually increase a bit further during the afternoon along the
coast. There are indications that some NVA will move into
inland areas during the afternoon. We therefore show the
greatest PoPs closer to the coast where the better upper support
will exist. 0-6 km mean wind may decrease a bit during the day,
so slow-moving storms and localized flooding will remain
possible.

A weak upper ridge will try to build over the area on Saturday,
potentially pushing the cold front just off the coast. There
remain timing differences in the models, some showing the front
not moving offshore until late in the day. We maintained chance
PoPs across the area with the highest values closer to the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep layered ridging will occur late in the weekend into early
next week. The sea breeze will be a main driver for convection
each day. Temps will remain a few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z TAFs: Thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze and
with an approaching cold front from the north. The most likely
time period for direct impacts to both TAF sites are highlighted
with TEMPO groups. Brief IFR is possible in TSRA. Amendments
will probably be needed based on radar trends. The thunderstorms
should decrease in coverage/intensity this evening, allowing
for VFR to prevail.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Occasional flight restrictions
possible in scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Greatest coverage expected Thursday and Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
The marine zones will remain between a cold front across inland
GA/SC and high pressure over the western Atlantic today and tonight.
As a result, winds are forecast to remain from the south today and
favoring a southwest direction tonight. Speeds will range between 10
to 15 knots. Wave heights are forecast to range from 2-4 ft through
the near term period. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
possible near shore late this afternoon and evening, decreasing to
isolated to scattered tonight.

A slightly enhanced SW flow will continue into Thursday as a
cold front lingers just inland. Thereafter, fairly weak SW to SE
flow will occur as the front dissipates and Atlantic high
pressure rebuilds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimums for 14 August:
KCHS: 79/1995
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 78/1949

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101-
     114>119-137>141.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
303 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

SCZ047-048-051-141930-
Inland Jasper-Coastal Jasper-Beaufort-
303 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BEAUFORT AND JASPER
COUNTIES...

At 303 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Bellinger Hill Area, moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Hilton Head Island, Bluffton, Port Royal, Hardeeville, Rose Hill, Sun
City, Calawassie Island and Hilton Head Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

This storm may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3220 8112 3221 8113 3228 8111 3239 8068
      3215 8069 3212 8073
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 256DEG 10KT 3216 8097

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
307 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

SCZ048-049-141930-
Coastal Colleton-Beaufort-
307 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BEAUFORT COUNTY...

At 307 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Ladys Island, or near Beaufort. This storm
was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph, up to penny sized hail and
           excessive cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Beaufort and Ladys Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3244 8070 3256 8067 3256 8050 3239 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 283DEG 3KT 3249 8061

SPR

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