Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
354 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain across the region through this
weekend. High pressure is expected to build over the Southeast
early next week. A cold front is forecast to slowly move across
the Coastal Plain Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 350 PM: Latest visible satellite indicated deep
convection developing over SE GA with very limited cumulus
developing over the SC Lowcountry. Recent sfc observations
indicate that temperatures generally ranged in the mid 90s
across the region, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s common
across SE GA and the southern portions of the SC Lowcountry.
Recent SPC mesoscale analysis indicated that most of the SC
counties remained under 25-75 J/kg of CIN. Near term guidance
shows the llvl CIN eroding over the next 1 to 2 hours.
Thunderstorms, severe thunderstorms, across SE GA will continue
to develop into this evening given CAPE in excess of 5000 J/kg
and DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg. The arrival of outflows and
increase destabilization should result in rapid develop across
the SC Lowcountry later this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms,
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail, should continue over
the region through 9 PM, highlighted with Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 424. In addition, a Heat Advisory will remain in effect
until 6 PM, cooled by thunderstorm cold pools. Scattered to
isolated thunderstorms are forecast to continue across the
region tonight. Low temperatures should range in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The active northwest flow convective pattern will likely persist
through Sunday evening as a series of shortwaves drop southeast
through the area. The warmest temps will be across southeast GA
and far southern SC where the combination of low/mid 70s
dewpoints will produce robust instability. Model soundings
indicate potentially less mid-level dry air than Saturday but
there will still be the potential for some severe thunderstorms.
The best chance will be across southeast GA where the greatest
instability exists but with the stronger shortwave energy moving
out of SC we could also see some strong/severe storms moving
through southern SC at some point Sunday. Also, heat index
values could top 105F for a few hours along the GA coast.

Considerable mid-level subsidence is anticipated on Monday as
the shortwave ridge axis shifts overhead and spreads widespread
NVA over the area. We maintained a slight chance for showers and
tstms mainly to account for possible sea breeze convection in
the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 90s and moderate
dewpoints could produce 105-108F heat indices along a corridor
near the coast in SC/GA where the afternoon dewpoints are less
likely to mix out.

Slightly better convective coverage is anticipated on Tuesday
as the upper ridge begins to break down. Another hot day is in
store with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices
100-105F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A stationary front or weak inland trough will prevail across the
Southeast. This will bring our area the typical afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms. Based on the latest information, it
appears that the greatest risk for thunderstorms will occur
between 21Z to 1Z, greater chance at KSAV. Until then,
expecting gusty WNW winds from late morning through this
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The primary concern will be the timing and placement of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Based on the latest
satellite trends and CAMs, it appears that KSAV will see a TSRA
with gusty winds by 20Z. KCHS should see the greatest coverage
between 22Z and 2Z, highlighted with a TEMPO. The convection is
expected to push over the Atlantic by mid-evening. A second
round of thunderstorms could approach KCHS during the mid to
late evening, however, the passage of the activity is less
certain. I will keep VCSH in the TAFs through the rest of the
evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A stationary front will remain over the marine zones through
tonight. Thunderstorms sourced over land will push east across the
adjacent waters tonight, likely producing gusty winds, hail, and
cloud-to-water lightning. Between the storms, winds will favor a SW
direction between 10 to 15 kts. Wave heights are forecast to range
between 2-3 feet.

A stationary front draped over the waters will dissipate by
Monday as Atlantic high pressure rebuilds. Another front will
approach the waters mid to late next week. Winds/seas will
remain below advisory thresholds during the period.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ099>101-
     114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ042>044-
     047>052.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/NED
MARINE...JRL/NED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
314 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ042>044-047>052-231915-
Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-
Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-
Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
314 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the
region Sunday afternoon and evening. A few of these thunderstorms may
produce damaging wind gusts and hail.

Excessive Heat: The combination of hot temperatures and moderate
humidity could produce afternoon heat index values around 105 degrees
across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia Sunday,
Monday, and Tuesday. Heat Advisories may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

GAZ087-088-SCZ040-045-231915-
Jenkins-Screven-Allendale-Inland Berkeley-
314 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the
region Sunday afternoon and evening. A few of these thunderstorms may
produce damaging wind gusts and hail.

Excessive Heat: The combination of hot temperatures and moderate
humidity could produce afternoon heat index values around 105 degrees
across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia Sunday,
Monday, and Tuesday. Heat Advisories may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-231915-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
314 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE LENA              32.74N  81.18W
06/22/2019                   HAMPTON            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 601 AND HIGHWAY 3. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR
            DATA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1900670

NED

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