Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
359 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will persist over the Southeast
through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: Main concern through the evening is the threat for severe
thunderstorms, generally from about 6 to 9 pm closer to the
Midlands/CSRA and from about 7 to 10 pm near the coast. More
discrete cells/lines are expected to develop into a squall line
across the Midlands/CSRA and then push east to the coast.
As typical with squall lines, damaging winds should be the
greatest hazard, although large hail and/or tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. It will be breezy even before any storms arrive with
gusts near 30 mph at times. Most of the rain should end by
around midnight with lows by daybreak in the lower to mid 70s
inland and upper 70s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shortwave ridge will settle over the area on Friday while
weak surface high pressure expands southeast. Dry, warm weather
will result, along with slightly lower dewpoints. Highs will top
out in the middle 90s.

The upper ridge axis will remain just to the west Saturday into
Sunday, keeping a warm airmass in place. However, a series of
shortwaves will drop southeast through the area during the
period. Fairly strong instability is expected to develop
Saturday and Sunday, which, combined with the shortwave energy,
should allow scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
affect the area especially during the afternoon/evening. Given
the potential for more organized convection due to the upper
shortwave energy, some thunderstorms could be severe with
damaging winds and large hail.

High temps in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s may result in an hour or two of 105F heat indices in a
few spots both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak troughing at the surface and aloft will persist through at
least the middle of next week. Guidance continues to depict above-
normal temperatures. Interestingly, despite the trough, medium range
guidance suggests that coverage of diurnal convection could become
sparse next week, resulting in below-normal daily PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect the main impact this period to be from showers/tstms
at both KCHS and KSAV toward evening, mainly 23-01Z. Wind gusts
will be near 25 kt at times this afternoon but could be over 50
kt with the stronger storms.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Elevated winds/seas are expected ahead of a squall
line of storms which should push into the waters this evening
with potentially even greater winds over 50 kt. Seas will range
from 3-5 ft with some 6 ft seas off the Charleston County coast
and over the outer GA waters.

Friday through Tuesday: Atlantic high pressure will prevail
over the marine area, maintaining a southwest to south flow
through the period. Winds/seas expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ350-352.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ374.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
150 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-211000-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
150 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Excessive Heat: The combination of hot temperatures and moderate
humidity could produce afternoon heat index values around 105
degrees, mainly across parts of Southeast Georgia Friday then across
a wider swath of southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina this
weekend. Heat Advisories could eventually be issued.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ330-350-352-354-211000-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
150 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ374-211000-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
150 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: Some severe thunderstorms with wind gusts in
excess of 50 knots, large hail and/or waterspouts are possible later
today, mainly this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
449 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

GAZ114-202115-
Tattnall-
449 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF TATTNALL COUNTY...

At 449 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles southeast of Plant Hatch, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to nickel sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Glennville and Mendes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes suddenly, sometimes
with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly changing weather
conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe weather is observed
or a warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8222 3209 8202 3191 8188 3183 8206
      3187 8211 3189 8212 3189 8213 3191 8213
      3190 8215 3191 8216 3190 8219 3192 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 239DEG 32KT 3187 8222