Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
330 PM EDT Sun May 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today, reaching the
coast early Monday. A secondary cold front will pass through
Monday night, followed by drier high pressure through the
middle of the week. A weak cold front will cross the area later
in week, with high pressure to return next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
There is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our entire area until 9
PM.

Through This Evening: Radar across the Southeast remains very
active. The main line of convection is just southwest of our
area. Meanwhile, discrete cells are ahead of it, moving through
our area. Per the latest SPC MCD, the main line is weakening
while the discrete cells are strengthening. While their thinking
that this may reduce the overall severe potential across the
region, the discrete cells remain potent. SPC Mesoscale Analysis
indicates MLCAPEs with pockets up to 2,000 J/kg. Bulk shear is
increasing while west southwest mid- level flow is 40-45 kt.
Damaging winds remain the main concern followed by large hail.
Given the various boundary interactions and Sig tor parameters
above zero, a small area or two of brief rotation is not out of
the question. The POPs continue to reflect the timing of the
convection moving through our area over the next few hours.

Tonight: The main area of convection will move offshore during
the evening with remnant showers persisting into the night,
especially along the coast. The cold front will move into our
area late. It's possible our overnight POPs might be too high.
There could also be low clouds and some patchy fog. But confidence
remains too low for inclusion in the forecast. Lows will
generally be in the 60s, except higher at the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The day will begin with the cold front
situated right along the coast of the forecast area, stretching back
to the Florida panhandle region. This will focus the best chances
for showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters and the
southeast Georgia coast during the day. The highest rain chances are
south of I-16 and gradually shift further southward and off the
coast through the afternoon. There could be a few thunderstorms, but
the overall severe threat is very low. Cooler and drier air will
filter in, especially behind a secondary cold front progged to push
through in the evening and early morning hours. Therefore the
overnight period will be dry. Highs are forecast to range in the low
to mid 80s, with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Tuesday through Wednesday: High pressure will build into the region
through mid week and the weather will be very quiet. Temperatures
will actually be a few degrees below normal during this period with
highs in the upper 70s/around 80 for most areas and some low 80s
across southeast Georgia. Tuesday night lows will be mostly in the
low to mid 50s, but a few values in the upper 40s/around 50 will be
possible well inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models are in fairly good agreement in the long term. Late week and
early weekend should be relatively quiet. A weak front is progged to
cross the area Thursday into Friday, but little to no precipitation
is expected to accompany it at this time. High pressure will return
for the weekend. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the
period as heights build aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z TAFs: Mainly VFR with gusty winds initially. Radar shows
convection across the area associated with an approaching cold
front. Some of the convection could be strong/severe with
damaging winds and large hail. The most likely times of these
impacts are accounted for in the TEMPO groups. But we expect to
refine this further with amendments as the storms get closer to
the TAF sites, possibly including brief IFR and adding stronger
convective wind gusts. Following the convection, remnant
showers may linger through the evening. After midnight,
ceilings are forecasted to lower to MVFR. Conditions should
return to VFR after sunrise Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
This Evening: There is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for our
waters within 20 nm, including Charleston Harbor until 9 PM. The
main threats with the severe thunderstorms will be wind gusts
35-50 kt and 0.75" hail.

Tonight: A cold front will approach from the west. Behind the
convection, winds may ease a few kt late in the evening, then
increase again after midnight. Seas will range from 2-4 ft.

Monday through Friday: Southwest winds just ahead of a cold front
will prevail Monday, turning more out of the northwest Monday night.
Winds will top out in the 15-20 knot range, and should remain below
Small Craft Advisory thresholds. High pressure will then build into
the region through mid week, turning winds more northeasterly by
Wednesday. No marine concerns are expected with winds and seas
staying well below small craft advisory criteria through the end of
the week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...
MARINE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1244 PM EDT Sun May 12 2019

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-131645-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
1244 PM EDT Sun May 12 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ330-350-352-354-131645-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
1244 PM EDT Sun May 12 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ374-131645-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
1244 PM EDT Sun May 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: Showers and thunderstorms will overspread
the marine area this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching
cold front. Some of the storms could become severe, with wind gusts
in excess of 50 knots and large hail possible. The most likely time
frame for severe weather will be between 4 PM and 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
404 PM EDT Sun May 12 2019

SCZ045-050-052-122030-
Inland Berkeley-Tidal Berkeley-Charleston-
404 PM EDT Sun May 12 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES...

At 404 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Daniel Island, or near North Charleston,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Charleston, North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, Goose Creek, Hanahan,
Awendaw, Boone Hall Plantation and Mount Pleasant Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3276 7989 3283 8002 3309 7984 3300 7963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 230DEG 21KT 3284 7991

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