River Flood Warning 11, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
352 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will affect the area through tonight. High
pressure will then prevail through Thursday night before a cold
front pushes toward the region Friday. The front will likely
stall over or just north of the area, then lift north as a warm
front by Sunday. A cold front is expected to advance through
the region Sunday night and Monday followed by high pressure
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The upper trough and associated surface low will move through
overnight bringing an end to most of the rain by midnight,
although lingering low-level moisture and the trailing cold
front will create a few showers much of the night. Can't rule
out an isolated severe storm through at least early evening as
instability remains elevated, with damaging winds and/or large
hail possible. Low clouds should fill in behind the front from
the north, even lowering enough to create some fog. Can't
completely rule out some dense fog but low- level winds will be
increasing after the frontal passage so don't expect much. Lows
tonight should be in the lower to mid 60s most locales which is
still well above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday: An upper trough axis will be positioned right along the
coast, along with a narrow band of deep layer moisture. Have kept
slight chance PoPs right along the coast in the morning, then expect
moisture/rain chances to shift offshore later in the morning as the
upper trough moves eastward. At the surface, high pressure builds
from the north, resulting in light low level winds from the north-
northeast. High temperatures expected to be a tad cooler, but still
in the mid 70s north, and mid to upper 70s south, which is around
normal. A wedge of high pressure at the surface continues to hold
for Wednesday night, with light east-northeast winds. Lows will be
cooler than previous nights, in the mid 50s inland, to upper 50s
around 60 coast.

Thursday: The surface ridge to the north continues to push offshore,
which allows the low level winds to veer to southeast. This will
increase low level moisture/humidity, with surface dewpoint
temperatures climbing back into the lower 60s coast, and upper 50s
to around 60 inland. Marginal deep layer moisture starts to work in
from southeast to northwest by late day. This moisture band looks to
be part of a weak warm front. Have kept a slight chance for showers
late over the extreme south, but confidence not very high.
Temperatures will be warmer, in the mid to upper 70s north, and
around 80 south. Thursday night: the weak warm front and marginal
deep layer moisture moves northward across the area. Continued
slight chance for light showers overnight. Lows will be mild, in the
lower to mid 60s, 6-10 degrees above normal.

Friday: A deep upper trough will weaken as it moves northeast over
the Great Lake. The associated cold front is expected to stall just
west of the region as the upper flow remains southwesterly. Deep
layer moisture is again marginal, and along with weak upper forcing,
have maintained generally low end chance PoPs for most of the area.
Highs will again be above normal, reaching the lower 80s. With
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, it will feel a little
muggy.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weakening cold front will stall over or just north of the
forecast area Friday night and Saturday, perhaps accompanied by a
few showers/thunderstorms but probably not supporting a significant
precipitation event. The stationary front will lift north as a warm
front Sunday, then deep upper trough and associated cold front will
approach the region Sunday then will advance through the area Sunday
night/Monday. This system should produce better coverage of
showers/thunderstorms as compared with the late week/early weekend
system. High pressure will then build into the region into at least
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect periodic restrictions from showers and thunderstorms into
the evening at KCHS, and a bit longer at KSAV, as low pressure
approaches from the west. Some of the storms could be strong to
severe with wind gusts over 50 kt. Then restrictions in the
form of low clouds and possible showers. Ceilings may drop low
enough to cause visibility restrictions. Will maintain no worse
than MVFR for now but IFR or lower is possible. Should be back
to VFR by 15Z at KCHS and by 18Z at KSAV.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to dominate
through the weekend. The best chance for more significant
precipitation/convection is expected to be later Sunday, when
flight restrictions could become more likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A cold front will push south through most of the
waters leading to increasing north winds across the SC waters
late. Seas will hold at or below 3-5 ft and no headlines are
anticipated. Mariners are advised that a few strong or severe
storms are possible, especially through this evening. Fog will
also be possible after midnight as low-level moisture lingers in
the more stable post-frontal airmass.

Wednesday through Sunday: The latest guidance indicates that
conditions will stay below Small Craft conditions through the
period. However, northeast winds are expected to be 15 to 20
knots, with some higher gusts on Wednesday behind the departing
low pressure system. Winds should veer to easterly Wednesday
night and Thursday, and will likely remain around 15 knots.
Guidance continues to indicate that long fetch easterly flow
will push seas to around 6 feet at 40 nm and beyond. Winds
continue to veer to southerly Thursday night through Saturday,
while gradually decreasing in strength. Another cold front is
expected to approach the area on Sunday, which will increase the
winds from the south-southwest, possibly into at least the
15-20 knot range. Too soon to tell if winds/seas will reach
Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high minimums for April 9...
KCHS...67F set in 1999. (67F so far today)

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RFM/RJB
MARINE...RFM/RJB
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
404 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2019

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-100815-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
404 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia, southeast South Carolina and southern South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: A few thunderstorms could become severe
with damaging wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
610 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2019

GAZ100-092245-
Bulloch-
610 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BULLOCH COUNTY...

At 610 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Nevils, or 8 miles northeast of Claxton,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Denmark and Nevils.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 8176 3225 8166 3221 8178 3229 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 244DEG 17KT 3227 8185

JRL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
640 PM EDT TUE APR 09 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             STATESBORO              32.45N  81.78W
04/09/2019  E0.75 INCH       BULLOCH            GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A VIEWER SENT A PHOTO OF DIME SIZED HAIL TO A BROADCAST
            MEDIA STATION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1900120

RAD

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