Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
424 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface trough will exit the region tonight, with a cold front
passing through the area Tuesday. High pressure will build into
the region Wednesday into Thursday. Low pressure will pass west
of the area Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pre-frontal trough has been slow to make its way across the
forecast area this afternoon. While corridor of showers and
thunderstorms has been easy to pin down, the broad area of weak
forcing keeps some uncertainty where development could occur.
Cold front is apparent on satellite with weakening line of
showers just across the St. Lawrence River. These will bring a
chance of showers for the north later this evening, where
otherwise it has been dry today. Across the central and southern
parts of the forecast area, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue until mid-evening. CAPE and shear is
still in place, and don't have reason to remove enhanced wording
until atmosphere is more stable this evening. Front will slow
and stall along the Downeast coast tonight, with a chance of
showers lingering into Tuesday. Some patchy fog is possible late
tonight with remaining moisture in valleys and low-lying areas.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Tuesday behind the front.
Mixing could cause some isolated showers across the north during
peak heating hours in the afternoon. At the least, diurnal
cumulus will dot the skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Front wl gradually stall ovr the Downeast coast on Tue evng. S/wv
currently mvg thru the upr midwest wl mv east in near zonal flow
aloft with weak sfc low mvg off of Cape Cod at the beginning of the
short term. This wv wl ride up along frontal bndry ovrngt and pcpn
chances wl lkly just make a glancing blow along the coast Tue night.
Wv passes to the south of Nova Scotia Wed mrng with winds turning
nrly in it's wake and pulling front further south. 00z CMC is 12 hrs
slower with mvmnt of wv when compared to NAM/GFS with pcpn lingering
into the aftn hrs along the coast. GEFS ensemble mean is also in
agreement with this idea and hv pushed pcpn off the coast aft 06z.

High pressure wl be building in acrs nrn areas ovrngt with skies
gradually clearing fm north to south as winds begin to lighten. Hv
contd with idea of mins in the 40s acrs the north and possibly nr 40
in the deeper valleys of the North Woods. Rain and clds wl keep
temps up in the 50s ovr Downeast for Wed mrng.

High pressure wl dominate ovr the area Wed mrng thru the day
Thursday. Partly-mostly sunny skies expected into Thu with temps
running blo normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thur night wl feature the next system appchg fm the west as s/wv mvs
out of the Great Lakes. GFS holds onto sfc high the longest while EC
and CMC mv it into the north Atlantic by 12z Fri. Hv gone with lochc
showers acrs most of the CWA on Thu night, mainly after midnight.
Upr trof wl lift thru the area drg the day on Fri with showers ovr
the region. Cloudy and showery airmass wl keep temps blo normal for
the end of the week.

Trough clears the region Sat aftn with H5 ridge following in it's
wake. Temps wl climb to nr normal under influence of ridging. Next
system wl bring showers back to the area twd the end of the extndd.
Med range guidance seems to hv come into better agreement with the
upr air pattern but still with minor timing differences. Expecting
temps to moderate abv normal for the vry end of the pd.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Other than MVFR in stronger showers and storms this
evening, VFR is expected. Some patchy fog could develop in
valleys and low lying areas overnight with local reductions in
visibility at all TAF sites. SW winds tonight will shift W
Tuesday.

SHORT TERM:
Tue night...Low MVFR/IFR for southern terminals with VFR
elsewhere. Winds light out of the north.

Wed-Thur...VFR with light north winds.

Thu night-Fri...MVFR restrictions Fri morning with off and on
showers through the day Friday. Light S winds.

Fri night-Sat...Mainly VFR. Light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Below SCA conditions expected with a few gusts to
20kts tonight. Waves generally 3 to 4 feet.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds remaining below SCA levels into
Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Near Term...Cornwell
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Cornwell/Farrar
Marine...Cornwell/Farrar

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
412 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

MEZ001>003-015>017-029-030-130815-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
412 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Coastal DownEast Maine, Far
Northern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and
Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Any thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening may contain
gusty wind and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not required at this time.

MEZ004>006-010-011-031-032-130815-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-
Northern Washington-
412 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far
Eastern Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon may turn severe in spots with damaging
wind and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters should report severe weather according to standard
operating procedures.

ANZ050>052-130815-
Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM-
Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME-
412 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not required at this time.

CB