Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
146 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist flow into the
forecast area through much of the week. Weak troughing will
linger locally. The pattern supports a chance of mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will be a
little above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface ridge offshore with weak upper trough over the
Southeastern States. Temperatures have been a little slower to
rise through the day due to persistent stratus this morning.
Stronger heating occurring north of CAE. Meso- analysis at 17z
indicating moderate instability developing with ML cape around
2000 J/kg. Pockets of stronger instability also developing in
the area due to relatively steep low level lapse rates. Low-
level moisture pooling near west Midlands as dew points higher
near weak Piedmont trough. Models suggesting convection may
develop in the north Midlands where stronger heating located and
possible outflow from Mountain convection. Moisture appears
lower with dry mid level air/precipitable water lower than
previous days. Deeper moisture along the coastal plain so a few
showers/thunderstorms may develop to the southeast. Still
potential for isolated severe pulse storm especially in the
Piedmont and north Midlands where DCAPE above 1000 J/kg.
Continued low chance pops this afternoon and evening/scattered-
widely scattered coverage with weak upper level triggers.
Convection should diminish by mid to late evening. Expect
stratus to develop across the CSRA and spread north toward
daybreak. Fog threat lower due to stronger low- level jet in
south flow. Persistence with overnight temperatures with lows in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure in the Atlantic will direct a south flow
into the forecast area. Persistent upper trough over the area
with ridge out west and offshore. Models suggest weak sub-
tropical low remnant over the Panhandle of Florida will move
north into GA and possibly SC. This will result in at least an
increase in low-mid level moisture with precipitable water
increase to above 2 inches especially in the southern CWA.
Continued forecast of scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms both days with temperatures remaining above
normal in the low to mid 90s. Max heat index near 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF indicate little change in the pattern through
midweek. The surface southerly flow is forecast to continue on
the backside of high pressure off the Southeast Coast. The
models depict a weakness in upper ridging over the forecast
area. Expect scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms with temperatures a little above normal. There
may be increased thunderstorm coverage late in the period/next
weekend ahead of a northern stream shortwave trough and its
associated cold front. This is supported by blended guidance so
trended higher pops by Sat/Sun and slightly lower temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
17Z satellite showing stratus beginning to scatter out over portions
of the Midlands and CSRA early this afternoon.  Stratus hung around
a little longer than anticipated and will likely delay convection
initiation until mid afternoon in most areas. Radar is quiet at 17z.
Expect convective activity to begin after 19z.

Weak left over surface boundaries from Saturday evening's
thunderstorm activity coupled with afternoon heating should be
enough to initiate scattered convection.  Models also hinting at a
weak upper level trough moving across the area this evening. With
uncertain timing and location for initiation will hold off on
mentioning VCTS at TAF sites. Next shift can watch radar trends and
adjust as needed. Light surface winds will generally be out of the
south through the afternoon into the evening.

Both model guidance and persistence favors areas of stratus building
into the region from the south early Monday morning. Going to trend
ceilings down after 0819 Monday morning 10z and trend up again after
14z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Seasonal conditions are expected with
periods of restrictions in the early morning from low stratus or
fog. Then additional restrictions possible in the afternoon and
evening from widely scattered convection.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
401 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
190945-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
401 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
303 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

SCZ021-022-181945-
Fairfield SC-Kershaw SC-
303 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of southeastern
Fairfield and west central Kershaw Counties Until 345 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Wateree Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 302 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Longtown, or 9 miles east of Winnsboro,
moving west at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Winnsboro, Lake Wateree Dam, Lake Wateree State Park, Longtown,
Ridgeway, Winnsboro Mills, Fairfield Elementary School, Smallwood,
Lake Wateree near Highway 97 and Fairfield County Detention Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Wateree should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

This storm may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio and
television stations for additional information and possible warnings
from the National Weather Service.

&&

This includes Interstate 77 between mile markers 31 and 45.

LAT...LON 3433 8064 3424 8108 3447 8116 3448 8089
      3446 8088 3448 8084 3448 8081
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 084DEG 10KT 3437 8093

RC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
324 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

SCZ021-022-028-182015-
Fairfield SC-Richland SC-Kershaw SC-
324 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of east central
Fairfield...north central Richland and southwestern Kershaw Counties
Until 415 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Wateree Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 324 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Lake Wateree Dam, moving south at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph, pea sized hail, excessive
           cloud to ground lightning and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately. Localized, minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Camden, Lake Wateree Dam, Lugoff, Lake Carolina, Elgin, Longtown,
Pine Grove Fire Station and North Towne Square Shopping Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Wateree should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This storm may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio and
television stations for additional information and possible warnings
from the National Weather Service.

&&

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 92
and 99.

LAT...LON 3434 8089 3438 8068 3422 8054 3414 8092
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 347DEG 6KT 3430 8076

RC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
331 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

SCZ021-182015-
Fairfield SC-
331 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northeastern
Fairfield County Until 415 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Wateree Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 330 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Blackstock, or 11 miles north of Winnsboro,
moving southeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph, up to penny sized hail,
           excessive cloud to ground lightning and localized minor
           flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately. Localized, minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Winnsboro, Winnsboro Mills, Fairfield Elementary School, White Oak,
Mitford, Blackstock and Fairfield County Detention Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Wateree should move to shore and seek shelter.
Strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This storm may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio and
television stations for additional information and possible warnings
from the National Weather Service.

&&

This includes Interstate 77 between mile markers 39 and 51.

LAT...LON 3455 8100 3455 8092 3451 8088 3449 8090
      3447 8089 3444 8086 3432 8110 3454 8120
      3456 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 327DEG 6KT 3454 8108

RC