Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
323 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will become stationary across the region by
end of the workweek. Increasing moisture will bring a more humid
airmass as will as more widespread showers and thunderstorms by
the end of the week. This wet pattern will linger into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Regional radar as of 18Z showing scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed mainly in areas that had more
heating through the morning due to less cloud cover. An upper
trough axis extending from the OH/TN valleys will promote west-
southwesterly flow aloft across the region through tonight. At
the surface, weak lee side troughing is in place across the
eastern Piedmont and western Midlands. Precipitable water
values are around 1.6 inches. Scattered convective coverage is
expected through the afternoon with activity diminishing this
evening with loss of heating. Instability appears weak to
moderated. Overall severe potential is low, although isolated
strong winds are possible given DCAPE values around 700 to 900
J/kg. Temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 90s and
overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. Patchy fog will be
possible again tonight mainly in fog prone locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models indicate a wet pattern developing for the end of the
week. An upper level trough axis will remain west of the region
with an upper ridge off the southeast coast and over the Desert
Southwest. A frontal boundary is progged to stall to our north
and west. A deep southerly flow will develop across the region
producing increasing moisture and instability. PW values will
increase to around 1.5 inches Thursday to around 2.0 inches for
Friday afternoon/evening. Have maintained higher pops for the
period with activity expected to develop after midday and into
the evening hours. With the increase PW values and relatively
slow storm motion some of the storms will produce locally heavy
rainfall. Highs through the period will be close to normal
through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models have been consistent with a wet pattern during the
medium-range period. The GFS and ECMWF show a mid-level trough
in the region. Low-level winds are forecast to be southerly on
the backside of offshore high pressure. There should be
increased moisture and the models depict a plume of moisture
from the tropics although the deepest moisture may remain east
of the forecast area ahead of upper troughing. The models
indicate precipitable water around 2.0 inches. Continued with
pops in the high chance to likely category into early next
week. As the trough begins to move eastward by late Tuesday into
Wednesday the pattern begins to look a bit less wet heading
toward the middle of next week. Pops by Wednesday should be in
the slight chance/low chance category. Cloudiness should help
hold down heating and expect near or a little below normal high
temperatures during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main near term concern is scattered thunderstorm activity for this
afternoon.  Will indicate VCTS and tempo TSRA to handle. Strong wind
gusts will be possible with the storms. Expect decreasing
thunderstorm coverage this evening, then attention will turn to
fog/stratus potential for late tonight. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms expected again Thursday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances of late
night/early morning fog/stratus, and afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, late week into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
313 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
010715-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
313 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
308 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

GAZ064-065-077-SCZ030-312000-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-Columbia GA-Aiken SC-
308 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northwestern Burke...
Richmond...southeastern Columbia and west central Aiken Counties
Until 400 PM EDT....

At 308 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Fort Gordon, moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, pea sized hail, excessive cloud
           to ground lightning and localized minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately. Localized, minor flooding of low
           lying and poor drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Grovetown, Evans, Martinez, Fort Gordon, Augusta, Hephzibah,
Glendale, South Augusta, Midtown, Summerville, Augusta Mall, Daniel
Field, Augusta Regional Airport, Village Plaza Shopping Center,
Augusta National Golf Club, Blythe, West End Augusta, Liberty Park
Community Center, New Savannah Bluff Lock & Dam Park and Glenn Hills.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 193 and 200.
 Interstate 520 in Georgia between mile markers 1 and 14.

LAT...LON 3329 8223 3338 8229 3355 8205 3349 8199
      3346 8193 3332 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 238DEG 10KT 3338 8214

LCV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
313 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

SCZ027-028-037-311945-
Lexington SC-Calhoun SC-Richland SC-
313 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of southeastern
Lexington...northwestern Calhoun and south central Richland Counties
Until 345 PM EDT....

At 306 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Congaree National Park, or 10 miles
southwest of McEntire Air Base, moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph, pea sized hail and localized
           minor flooding.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crop is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. Localized, minor flooding of low lying and poor
           drainage areas is also possible.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Congaree National Park and Sandy Run.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

This storm may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio and
television stations for additional information and possible warnings
from the National Weather Service.

&&

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 128 and 134.

LAT...LON 3370 8099 3389 8097 3388 8078 3370 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 274DEG 7KT 3380 8089

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