Wind Advisory 19, NWS Billings, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
316 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight...

Lee trough has formed and has become tight enough for winds to
gust to 55 mph from Livingston to Nye to Big Timber. Gradient from
Idaho Falls to Lewistown was at 14mb. GFS increases this to 16mb
by 18z, decreases it to 14mb this afternoon, then ratchets it up
to 18mb overnight. Given that winds were so close to criteria
already in these locations, have decided to issue a Wind Advisory
for Livingston and Nye, and a High Wind Warning for Big Timber.
Winds may become "less strong" this afternoon, but the strongest
winds will be tonight and Sunday.

700mb winds increase from Big Timber to Judith Gap tonight to
60kts. This, with strong surface pressure falls turning the upper
winds west, should allow high winds in Harlowton and Judith Gap
tonight and Sunday. Will issue a High Wind Warning for these
locations for tonight and Sunday as well.

Mid to high level clouds will increase today. Downslope flow will
allow for another mild day, with highs in the lower 50s. It will
be a breezy day across the plains, with 850mb winds of 35-40kts
being tapped into for wind gusts 40-45mph. Winds will decrease a
bit over the plains tonight, but should not die down completely.
TWH

Sunday through Friday...

The winds along the western zones are still expected to peak mid
day Sunday. The strong winds aloft are still expected to mix down
with gusts to 60+ mph. A cold front will move through during the
evening, which should help to decrease the winds fairly quickly
during the evening. Through the remainder of the of extended will
be unsettled. Through Wednesday the flow will be unstable
northwest flow. Generally looking a some slight chance PoPs
especially in the west. The rest of the week will see a large cut-
off low develop over the western US that will then track into the
northern Plains by the weekend. There still remains a significant
amount of spread between models and ensemble members within the
models. The ECMWF is still a slower solution compared compared to
the GFS. The EC is also on the drier side. Both solutions keep the
area in cold air, so both solutions will be snowfall. Given the
spread generally have kept the PoPs in the chance range.
Temperatures will generally fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s
for highs and teens for lows. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

Southwest winds will gust 40-50kts along the Beartooth/Absaroka
Foothills and KLVM today. Winds will stay strong tonight with some
gusts to 55kts possible. Winds will be strong over the plains too
and impact KBIL and KMLS with gusts to 30-35kts. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 037/053 029/039 023/033 020/031 020/031 017/025
    0/N 02/R    43/S    42/S    23/S    44/S    33/S
LVM 050 036/048 025/035 019/030 016/027 017/028 015/026
    0/N 15/R    53/S    42/S    24/S    54/S    33/S
HDN 054 033/053 027/041 020/034 019/034 018/033 017/028
    0/U 14/R    52/S    32/S    12/S    33/S    23/S
MLS 051 035/052 028/040 021/034 020/034 023/035 019/030
    0/U 04/R    21/B    11/E    12/S    33/S    33/S
4BQ 052 034/053 027/039 021/033 019/035 022/038 020/031
    0/U 13/R    32/S    21/E    12/S    22/S    23/S
BHK 048 032/050 027/037 020/033 018/033 022/034 021/030
    0/U 01/N    11/B    11/B    12/S    23/S    33/S
SHR 052 029/051 024/036 017/031 014/031 017/034 016/029
    0/B 11/B    53/S    32/S    12/S    22/S    23/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM
      MST Sunday FOR ZONES 63-172-228.
     Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM MST Sunday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
     High Wind Warning in effect until 6 PM MST Sunday FOR ZONE
      141.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
249 AM MST SAT NOV 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW BIG TIMBER        45.81N 109.98W
11/23/2019  M56.00 MPH       SWEET GRASS        MT   AWOS

&&

TWH