Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Billings, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
235 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

Active evening ahead as the atmosphere supports another round of
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Dewpoints have risen
into the 50s, with some lower 60s over Sheridan county, and this
has risen surface cape values to over 1500 j/kg. Morning CIN has
eroded over all locations expect the far east, so lift will not be
a problem. Shear values were 35-40 kts and this will allow for
convection to maintain strength once it gets going. The main core
of instability and shear lies from around Broadus northwestward
toward Billings and Roundup, but enough shear and cape all the way
toward Livingston to support SPC's slight risk for severe
thundestorms tonight. High resolution and CAMs were initiating the
first round of strong storms near Powder River county this
afternoon, with another batch farther northwest toward Billings
later this afternoon. Storms will move east to northeast.
Precipitable water amounts progged over an inch, with even 1.5
over the east, so storms will have torrential rainfall. Will have
to pay very close attention to rain rates as flash flooding can
not be ruled out with PWATs that high, although storms should be
moving fast enough to minimize this somewhat. Some of the high
resolution models bring a final push of convection through
Billings after 9 pm, and then move this into southeast Montana as
a convective complex overnight, so storms may be going through the
night over the east.

A vast majority of the area will have lingering clouds Monday
morning, with northeast winds and this may keep things a little
less active on Monday. That being said, another wave kicks across
the area and models want to develop a batch of convection south
and southeast of Billings in the afternoon that could become
strong. Another active day looks in store for Tuesday as a cold
front works through the area to kick off more showers and
thundestorms. Cooler air behind the front should limit cape
values, so storms may struggle becoming strong Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Highs on Monday have been lowered a bit behind a weak
cold front tonight. Highs on Tuesday look to remain in the 70s
behind a stronger frontal passage early in the day. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

The unsettled pattern will continue through the week, with
perhaps a small break into next weekend, although confidence in
that is low. Southwest flow aloft will keep wave after wave moving
over southern Montana and northern Montana for lift to initiate
convection through Friday. The flow aloft backs to the west and
weakens next weekend and this may allow a small break in the
action, but convection should still get initiated over the
mountains and foothills. Ensembles were trending toward a
northwest flow aloft and not so much zonal flow for this upcoming
weekend, so confidence for the break in the activity is low. East
to northeast surface winds will lead to cooler temperatures this
week, with highs not looking to get out of the 70s. TWH

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will move across much of SE Montana this afternoon
and into the night, bringing about localized IFR to LIFR
conditions. Storms could produce hail, as well as localized heavy
rain. Two rounds of storms are expected, one in the late
afternoon near KBIL, KMLS, and KSHR, and one in the late evening
and going into the night for KLVM, KBIL, and KMLS. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail. Vertz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/083 059/079 056/073 056/075 055/077 055/080 056/081
    52/T    24/T    65/T    56/T    53/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 052/083 052/078 051/073 050/073 050/075 049/080 051/080
    62/T    25/T    77/T    67/T    54/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 058/082 058/082 056/073 055/075 055/076 054/080 056/082
    63/T    24/T    65/T    66/T    54/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 058/083 058/081 056/073 054/074 055/075 054/078 056/080
    43/T    24/T    63/T    55/T    64/T    32/T    22/T
4BQ 058/081 057/086 057/073 056/075 056/076 054/077 055/080
    54/T    34/T    64/T    65/T    64/T    33/T    22/T
BHK 056/080 057/082 055/073 053/072 053/072 053/075 053/078
    44/T    35/T    64/T    55/T    64/T    43/T    22/T
SHR 056/081 054/085 054/075 053/076 052/077 051/080 052/081
    64/T    44/T    67/T    77/T    65/T    44/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
237 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-012200-
Southern Wheatland-Musselshell-Treasure-Northern Rosebud-Custer-
Fallon-Northern Stillwater-Yellowstone-Powder River-Carter-
Southern Big Horn-Eastern Carbon-Northern Park-
Northern Sweet Grass-Golden Valley-Red Lodge Foothills-
Northern Big Horn-Southern Rosebud-Judith Gap-Paradise Valley-
Livingston Area-Beartooth Foothills-Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-
Crazy Mountains-Northeast Bighorn Mountains-Sheridan Foothills-
237 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Montana...south central Montana...southeast Montana and north
central Wyoming.

* WHAT...Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Southern Montana and north central Wyoming.

* WHEN...This afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Thunderstorms will have the potential to
  produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

* ADDITIONAL HAZARD CONCERNS...The weather pattern will remain
  favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms over portions of the
  area for the next several days.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Weather Outlook is issued when hazardous weather could
impact the region within the next week. Be sure to stay tuned for
future updates as locations, timing, and impacts could change.
Begin preparations to mitigate any impacts that could result from
the hazardous weather.

&&

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