Winter Storm Watch 9, NWS Buffalo, NY

539 
WWUS41 KBUF 050310
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1010 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

NYZ005-006-051115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-190305T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0400Z-190307T1500Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
1010 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow through Tuesday morning. Heavy lake 
  effect snow possible Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. 
  Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows through Tuesday morning. Snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 16 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows Tuesday evening through Thursday morning.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM EST 
  Tuesday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Tuesday evening 
  through Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-051115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.190305T0600Z-190306T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1010 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  6 to 10 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-051115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0400Z-190307T1500Z/
Wayne-
Including the city of Newark
1010 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 16 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne county.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

481 
WWUS41 KBUF 050850
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
350 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

NYZ005-051700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-190305T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0400Z-190307T1500Z/
Northern Cayuga-
Including the city of Fair Haven
350 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 7 to 14 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga county.

* WHEN...From this evening through Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-051700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.190305T1700Z-190306T0300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
350 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow and areas of blowing snow expected. 
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 10 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-051700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.190305T1700Z-190306T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
350 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow and areas of blowing snow expected. 
  Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
  counties, with the greatest amounts focused across the higher 
  terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. 

* WHEN...From noon today to 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-051700-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0000Z-190307T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-190305T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
350 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow this morning. Heavy lake effect snow
  possible this evening through Thursday morning. Additional snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches in the most persistent lake snows
  this morning. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches
  possible in the most persistent lake snows this evening through
  Thursday morning.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM EST this 
  morning. For the Winter Storm Watch, from this evening through 
  Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-051700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-190306T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
350 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 
  9 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the morning and/or evening 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-051700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0400Z-190307T1500Z/
Wayne-
Including the city of Newark
350 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 7 to 14 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne county.

* WHEN...From this evening through Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

JJR

760 
WWUS41 KBUF 051343
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
843 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

NYZ006-052145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-190305T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0000Z-190307T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
843 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible this evening through
  Thursday morning. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches 
  possible in the most persistent lake snows this evening through 
  Thursday morning.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 7 PM EST this evening through Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-052145-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-190306T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
843 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 
  9 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions will impact the morning and/or evening 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-052145-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.190305T1700Z-190306T0300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
843 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow and areas of blowing snow expected. 
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 10 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-052145-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.190305T1700Z-190306T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
843 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow and areas of blowing snow expected. 
  Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties, with the greatest amounts focused across the higher 
  terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills.

* WHEN...From noon today to 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-052145-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0400Z-190307T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
843 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 7 to 14 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From this evening through Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$
Reynolds

525 
WWUS41 KBUF 051743
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1243 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

NYZ006-060300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0000Z-190307T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0008.190306T0000Z-190307T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
1243 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 16 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows.
  Greatest amounts will be across southern portions of the county.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or
  evening commute. Also, it will be bitterly cold with wind 
  chills as low as 10 below.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4367 7575 4365 7598 4370 7623 4355 7625 
        4356 7643 4352 7647 4340 7673 4334 7659 4336 7614 
        4348 7579 
TIME Y19M03D06T0000Z-Y19M03D06T0700Z
COORD...4328 7600 4338 7634 4340 7673 4329 7695 
        4333 7738 4313 7731 4301 7680 4302 7650 4318 7647 
        4321 7620 
TIME Y19M03D06T0700Z-Y19M03D07T0000Z
COORD...4334 7598 4344 7606 4355 7628 4351 7650 
        4330 7690 4330 7731 4319 7731 4307 7648 4324 7645 
        4322 7605 
TIME Y19M03D07T0000Z-Y19M03D07T1600Z

$$

NYZ004-005-060300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0400Z-190307T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0008.190306T0300Z-190307T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
1243 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 7 to 14 inches expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or
  evening commute. Also, it will be bitterly cold with wind 
  chills as low as 10 below.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4367 7575 4365 7598 4370 7623 4355 7625 
        4356 7643 4352 7647 4340 7673 4334 7659 4336 7614 
        4348 7579 
TIME Y19M03D06T0000Z-Y19M03D06T0700Z
COORD...4328 7600 4338 7634 4340 7673 4329 7695 
        4333 7738 4313 7731 4301 7680 4302 7650 4318 7647 
        4321 7620 
TIME Y19M03D06T0700Z-Y19M03D07T0000Z
COORD...4334 7598 4344 7606 4355 7628 4351 7650 
        4330 7690 4330 7731 4319 7731 4307 7648 4324 7645 
        4322 7605 
TIME Y19M03D07T0000Z-Y19M03D07T1600Z

$$

NYZ001>003-060300-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.190306T0300Z-190307T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
1243 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3
  to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Greatest
  amounts will be near the Lake Ontario shoreline, north of Route
  104.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. Also, it will be bitterly cold with wind chills as
  low as 10 below.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-060300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-190306T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1243 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. 

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Also, it
  will be bitterly cold with wind chills as low as 10 below.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-060300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-190306T0300Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
1243 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow and areas of blowing snow. Snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Also, it
  will be bitterly cold with wind chills as low as 10 below.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-060300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-190306T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
1243 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow and areas of blowing snow. Snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Also, it
  will be bitterly cold with wind chills as low as 10 below.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
142 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably cold airmass will be in place through much of the
week with bouts of lake effect snow, particularly southeast of Lake
Ontario. A warmer airmass will return in time for the weekend, but
also with the potential rain by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A well defined shortwave trough along the southern edge of an
anomalously deep upper level low over Northern Ontario Province will
be the main feature for this evening.  This feature has already
forced lift east of Lake Erie with scattered showers now also over
the west end of Lake Ontario.  Expect an increase in coverage
through the afternoon with a wide open lake.  The result will be the
development of a lake band that will set up over Oswego County and
extreme northern Cayuga County by this evening. Once the shortwave
trough moves by, a westerly flow should remain in place for a high
end advisory level snow event with main impacts across portions of
Oswego County and along the southern side of the Tug Hill Plateau.
Snow totals should reach about 7 inches with the usual spatial
variability often seen with a single lake effect plume. Limited
timing, generally under 12 hrs, together with a cap of ~7000' is
currently preventing a warning upgrade.  This band will start to
wander north into parts of Jefferson and Lewis counties toward the
morning where there is also an advisory in effect. The remainder of
the area should actually see a decrease in snow shower coverage this
evening, with dry weather overnight as weak high pressure moves
toward the region.

On Tuesday, the Lake Ontario band should quickly move to the north
and may shrink back into Lake Ontario, as low level winds drop off
briefly while the next shortwave trough, currently dropping south
through Manitoba, will affect WNY with the likelihood of a burst of
snow in the afternoon.  The surface reflection of this feature is
fairly weak, but the cold air aloft should be able to remove the
midlevel cap. The result will be a steep lapse rate through 10000'
by the end of the day and hence the relatively high probability of
snow. Accumulations Tuesday will be limited as any snow should be of
relatively short duration. There may be a burst of snow - snow
squall? - moving toward the area by evening, but current model runs
do not bring this in until after the main commute.   Meanwhile, this
will energize the Lake Ontario band which will be poised to move
back the eastern Lake Ontario region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

A cold front and associated mid level trough will sweep east across
the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and early evening. DPVA,
deeper moisture, and low level convergence associated with this
feature should be sufficient to produce a few periods of light snow
areawide with minor accumulations. There should be some enhancement
east and northeast of Lake Erie due primarily to terrain and lake
forced low level frictional convergence. The lake can still yield
some minor enhancement in this manner despite being frozen. Expect
accumulations of 1-3 inches Tuesday afternoon and evening from
Buffalo southward across the higher terrain east of the lake.

Lake enhancement will become prevalent again late Tuesday afternoon
and evening east of Lake Ontario. Initial southwest flow will focus
the lake enhancement across Jefferson County late Tuesday afternoon,
possibly even as far north as near the Saint Lawrence River. This
area of lake enhancement will then move south across the Tug Hill
region through the first half of Tuesday night. Expect additional
accumulations of 2-5 inches for Jefferson and Lewis counties from
late Tuesday through the first half of Tuesday night, with the
higher end of that range focused on the Tug Hill.

A more abrupt wind shift to the WNW will cross Lake Ontario by 06Z
Wed, quickly shoving the lake effect snow southward and away from
Jefferson and Lewis counties. The band of snow will translate
quickly south across Oswego County, ending up across Wayne, northern
Cayuga, and far southern Oswego County by early Wednesday morning.
Some occasional snow will also begin to impact the shoreline from
Rochester west to Niagara County during this time.

WNW flow will continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, keeping lake
effect snow focused southeast of Lake Ontario. The most persistent
snow will be across Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego
counties during this time period. Model guidance continues to show
numerous small scale shortwaves and surface troughs moving across
the eastern Great Lakes during this time period, and this will
likely yield small and frequent changes in boundary layer wind
direction. This may not allow lake effect snow to remain in any one
place long enough to realize warning criteria amounts, although that
certainly remains a possibility if the wind direction can settle for
a length of time. The intensity of the lake effect snow is also
likely to change diurnally. In March the higher sun angle promotes
stronger and deeper diurnal mixing, which often disrupts the subtle
CISK driven convergence that supports lake band structure, forcing
the lake effect snow to break apart into cellular snow showers
during the afternoon and early evening. The best band structure is
often seen overnight into the early morning when insolation driven
mixing is not present.

Given the uncertainty with frequent changes in band position, shear,
and diurnal influences, kept accumulations in the high end advisory
range from Tuesday night through Wednesday night across southern
Oswego, northern Cayuga, and eastern Wayne counties.

Farther west, occasional snow showers will continue along the south
shore from Rochester westward to Niagara county, and extending down
into the western Finger Lakes at times. This will produce spotty
accumulations of a few inches. The WNW wind direction may also allow
for a few difficult to forecast Lake Huron bands to reach Western NY
at times, producing spotty minor accumulations.

The latest 00Z GFS and ECMWF show a mid level trough and weak
surface wave crossing the eastern Great Lakes late Wednesday night
and Thursday morning. This feature may produce a little light snow
again areawide with very minor accumulations. At least some lake
effect snow will continue southeast of Lake Ontario as well, but
increasing shear with the approach of the synoptic scale wave should
force the lake effect snow to weaken by early Thursday. A few snow
showers will continue Thursday from ongoing northwest flow lake
effect and upslope, and the remains of the weak trough crossing the
region. Any additional accumulations will be minor.

Temperatures will run a solid 20F below average through the period,
with highs in the teens in most locations Tuesday and Wednesday and
lows in the single numbers away from the immediate Lake Ontario
shore. Wind chills will frequently run below zero. Highs by Thursday
afternoon will get back into the lower 20s at lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold air will finally lose its grip on the Great Lakes region by
next weekend as the eastern trough de-amplifies and moves east into
the Canadian Maritimes. This will allow for a notable warm-up, with
temperatures above normal by Sunday.

WNW flow may continue to support a few light lake effect snow
showers southeast of Lake Ontario Thursday night and early Friday,
but any additional accumulations will be light.

Our attention then turns back to the synoptic scale. A fast moving
Pacific system will eject out of the 4 corners region and into the
Central Plains Thursday before reaching the Ohio Valley Friday.
Model guidance remains in poor agreement with the strength and
northern extent of this system. The GFS is most aggressive in
bringing some light snow into the Southern Tier Friday and Friday
evening, while the ECMWF and GEM are weaker and farther south. Given
the model differences, kept a low chance of snow for southern
portions of the area.

A more robust system will reach the Great Lakes late Saturday night
and Sunday as a deep low moves through the central Great Lakes. Warm
advection will spread into the area ahead of this system, increasing
precipitation chances by late Saturday night and Sunday. There may
be a little light snow or mix on the leading edge, but temperatures
will warm sufficiently to change everything to rain on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow will be the primary concern east of Lake Ontario
tonight, while other areas, including all TAF locations see limited
MVFR or VFR conditions, lasting into Tuesday morning.  Another burst
of cold air will begin to pour into the region by afternoon, with
MVFR and some IFR conditions returning by or after 18Z in Western
NY.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...lake effect snow and IFR/LIFR
conditions SE of lake Ontario, with scattered showers elsewhere.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of snow showers.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
An extended period of moderate to brisk winds will affect the Lower
Great Lakes through at least midweek. Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect for Lakes Erie and Ontario, particularly for the south
shore of Lake Ontario where stronger winds should last through
Wednesday. On Lake Erie winds will not be as consistently strong.
However, additional periods of advisory-worthy conditions remain
possible Tuesday into Wednesday.  Conditions should improve for
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ005-006.
     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday
     morning for NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Zaff
NEAR TERM...Zaff
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Zaff
MARINE...JJR/Zaff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
359 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-050900-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
359 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-050900-
Wayne-
359 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Lake effect snow will develop Tuesday night and continue through
Wednesday night or early Thursday. Moderate to heavy accumulations
are possible in the most persistent bands, especially across the
eastern portion of the county.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-050900-
Northern Cayuga-
359 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Another period of moderate to heavy lake effect snow is possible
from Tuesday night through Wednesday night or early Thursday
southeast of Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-050900-
Oswego-
359 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Another period of moderate to heavy lake effect snow is possible
from Tuesday night through Wednesday night or early Thursday
southeast of Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-050900-
Jefferson-Lewis-
359 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-050900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
359 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
906 AM EST MON MAR 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             FULTON                  43.30N  76.39W
03/04/2019  M3.5 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             SILVER CREEK            42.53N  79.16W
03/04/2019  M3.7 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             1 W COLDEN              42.65N  78.71W
03/04/2019  M3.7 INCH        ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             2 SW FORESTVILLE        42.45N  79.20W
03/04/2019  M5.0 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             CATTARAUGUS             42.32N  78.87W
03/04/2019  M4.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1901165
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901166
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901167
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901168
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901169

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 AM EST MON MAR 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     SNOW             PERRYSBURG              42.46N  79.00W
03/04/2019  M5.5 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1901170

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1136 AM EST MON MAR 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     SNOW             SODUS                   43.21N  77.01W
03/04/2019  M3.7 INCH        WAYNE              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1901171

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 PM EST MON MAR 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             7 SW ATTICA             42.80N  78.39W
03/04/2019  M4.1 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1901172

DPK