Winter Storm Watch 7, NWS Buffalo, NY

871 
WWUS41 KBUF 101450
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
950 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

NYZ005-102300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190210T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.190212T1100Z-190214T0300Z/
Northern Cayuga-
Including the city of Fair Haven
950 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible Tuesday
  through Wednesday. Snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches 
  possible Tuesday through Wednesday along with some ice 
  accumulation.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga county.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ006-102300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190210T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.190212T1100Z-190214T0300Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
950 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow today. Heavy snow and mixed
  precipitation possible Tuesday through Wednesday. Additional
  snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches in the most persistent lake
  snows today. Snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible 
  Tuesday through Wednesday along with some ice accumulation.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 1 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Tuesday morning 
  through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-102300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.190212T1100Z-190214T0300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
950 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. A brief period of mixed 
  precipitation is possible late Tuesday night. Total snow 
  accumulations of 12 to 18 inches possible.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

TMA

614 
WWUS41 KBUF 101808
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
108 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

NYZ006-110215-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190210T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.190212T1100Z-190214T0300Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
108 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Snow
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible along with some ice 
  accumulation.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ005-110215-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.190212T1100Z-190214T0300Z/
Northern Cayuga-
Including the city of Fair Haven
108 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible along with some ice 
  accumulation.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga county.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-110215-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.190212T1100Z-190214T0300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
108 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. A brief period of mixed 
  precipitation is possible late Tuesday night. Total snow 
  accumulations of 12 to 18 inches possible.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

TMA

846 
WWUS41 KBUF 102250
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
550 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

NYZ007-008-110700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0007.190212T1100Z-190214T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0007.190212T1500Z-190214T0300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
550 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 17
  inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions will likely impact the Tuesday evening and
  Wednesday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions. 

&&

$$

NYZ005-006-110700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.190212T1100Z-190214T0300Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
550 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches and ice accumulations of 
  around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high 
  as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

864 
WWUS41 KBUF 110303
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1003 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

NYZ007-008-111115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0007.190212T1500Z-190214T0300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1003 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO
10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 
  17 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions will likely impact the Tuesday evening 
  and Wednesday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

&&

$$

NYZ005-006-111115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.190212T1100Z-190214T0300Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
1003 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches and ice accumulations of 
  around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high 
  as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

845 
WWUS41 KBUF 110826
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
326 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

NYZ006-111630-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0007.190212T1100Z-190214T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.WS.W.0007.190212T1500Z-190214T0300Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
326 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 10 to 14 inches, with 14 to 18 inches across
  the Tug Hill. Ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch
  expected. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph Wednesday afternoon
  and evening will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EST Wednesday. Snow will
  develop Tuesday morning, then change to mixed precipitation for
  a time Tuesday night before changing back to snow by early
  Wednesday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult with snow and
  ice cover on roads and greatly reduced visibility. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the evening commute Tuesday and both 
  morning and evening commutes on Wednesday. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches and result in isolated power outages 
  later Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-111630-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0007.190212T1500Z-190214T0300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
326 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO
10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 14 to 18
  inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph Wednesday
  afternoon and evening will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EST Wednesday. Snow will
  develop later Tuesday morning and continue through Wednesday
  evening. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult with snow
  cover on roads and greatly reduced visibility. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the evening commute Tuesday and both 
  morning and evening commutes on Wednesday. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches and result in isolated power outages 
  later Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ005-111630-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0007.190212T1100Z-190214T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.190212T0800Z-190213T0900Z/
Northern Cayuga-
Including the city of Fair Haven
326 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of around 
  one tenth of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga county.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday. Snow will
  develop early Tuesday morning, then change to mixed
  precipitation late Tuesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult with snow
  and ice covered roads and reduced visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commute on 
  Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-111630-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.190212T0500Z-190213T0300Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, and Wellsville
326 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch expected. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph
  may bring down tree branches and result in isolated power
  outages.

* WHERE...The western Southern Tier.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 PM EST Tuesday. Snow will
  develop tonight, then change to mixed precipitation Tuesday
  morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult with snow
  and ice covered roads and reduced visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commute on 
  Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-111630-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.190212T0800Z-190213T0300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
326 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch expected. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph
  may bring down a few tree branches and result in isolated power
  outages.

* WHERE...The Niagara Frontier.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday. Snow will develop late
  tonight, then changed to mixed precipitation on Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult with snow
  and ice covered roads and reduced visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commute on 
  Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003-004-013-014-111630-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.190212T0800Z-190213T0900Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
326 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of around 
  one tenth of an inch expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday. Snow will
  develop very late tonight and continue through midday Tuesday
  before changing to mixed precipitation Tuesday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult with snow
  and ice covered roads and reduced visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commute on 
  Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock/Thomas

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
326 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario will come to an end this
morning. Otherwise it will be mainly dry today with thickening
clouds ahead of the next system. A weak front will move southeast
across the area tonight with spotty light snow and very minor
accumulations. A stronger storm system will move into the eastern
Great Lakes late Monday night and Tuesday. This will spread
accumulating snow into the area, which will then change to a wintry
mix and even just rain in some areas later Tuesday before changing
back to snow by Wednesday as colder air moves back into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A band of light to moderate lake effect snow continues southeast of
Lake Ontario early this morning. Inversion heights are shallow at
about 6K feet, but ample low level instability and favorable cloud
microphysics in this shallow layer are sufficient to support the
snow. Boundary layer flow will continue to weaken through the
morning, and this will allow the mesoscale land breeze circulation
to become dominant. This will force the lake band to shrink back
towards the lakeshore, and will eventually tea kettle and become
confined to over the lake. Until then, local additional
accumulations of 2-3 inches are possible along the shore from Fair
Haven to Oswego, with light accumulations spreading farther inland
across the rest of Oswego County.

Elsewhere a few very light flurries and lake effect clouds will
continue early this morning from near Buffalo eastward across
Rochester and the western Finger Lakes. These will come to an end by
mid morning. Otherwise the rest of the day will be dry with mid
level clouds thickening and lowering ahead of the next system. Any
light snow will hold off until after dark. High temperatures will
reach the mid to upper 20s in most areas.

Tonight an elongated vorticity maxima and associated upper level jet
will move ENE across the Great Lakes region, stretching and minoring
out with time. In the low and mid levels a weak differential
temperature advection pattern will develop, with low level northeast
flow and weak cold advection topped by mid level warm advection
along a weakening frontal zone. This will support an increase in
isentropic upglide from mid evening on. Latest 00Z guidance suggests
this weak forcing will be maximized in two corridors, over and east
of Lake Ontario and also across the western Southern Tier. This is
where the greatest chance of measurable snow will be found, although
spotty light snow is possible areawide tonight. Any accumulations
will be very light at less than an inch. There may be a brief period
of very minor lake enhancement along the south shore of Lake Ontario
late tonight on northeast winds from Monroe to Niagara counties, but
any enhancement to accumulations will be minimal.

The increase in clouds will keep temperatures from falling much
tonight, with lows in the lower 20s in most areas and teens east of
Lake Ontario where low level cold advection begins late tonight on
NE winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over Ontario and Quebec Canada will nose
southward to start Monday. It will become just cool enough for some
streamers of lake effect flurries and light snow to form...initially
over the lake on a land breeze...and then pushed inland across the
northern Niagara Frontier on a northeast flow. Otherwise Monday will
be quiet with Canadian high pressure nearby. This feature will
spread sunshine across our northern zones, though clouds may linger
near the state line, and begin to increase Monday night ahead of our
next storm system.

Our next storm system is currently seen on Water Vapor imagery
dropping southward over the northern California coastline.
The closed upper level low will dip southward along the California
shoreline today, and then advance across the Rockies and
Plains early next week. Another shortwave will phase with this low
Monday, deepening and negatively tilting the upper level longwave
trough. This upper level long wave trough will deepen a surface
low that will again cut through the Great Lakes region.

Tuesday will start on the cold side with advancing precipitation
starting as all snow late Monday night and Tuesday morning. A
primary low will pass through the Eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and
Tuesday night, moderating temperatures to above freezing for most of
the area. This will change the snow/possible wintry mix over to
plain rain later Tuesday and Tuesday night for much of WNY. A
secondary lee side low will form off the Delmarva Peninsula Tuesday
night and as this secondary low deepens, the primary surface low to
the north of Lake Ontario will begin to weaken. This will limit the
northward push of milder air such that precipitation southeast
and east of Lake Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night may remain as
all snow, or just mix with a few hours of sleet/rain. Here is where
confidence is high enough that there will be potential for
significant synoptic snows and will issue a winter storm watch
starting 11Z Tuesday.

Cold air will wrap back across our region later Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and change precipitation back over to all snow. The
closed upper level low will remain across southern Canada and a
persistent flow of moist, westerly flow will likely continue light
snow Wednesday, with greatest accumulations across upslope
areas...and later in the day lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario.
With modest snowfall continuing Wednesday and into Wednesday evening
we will continue the winter storm watch through Wednesday evening.

Surface high pressure will eventually ridge northward from the
Tennessee Valley and towards WNY late Wednesday night. This will
bring a slow end to the snows through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is high confidence that temperatures will average above normal
for this forecast period...as the arctic branch of the jet will
oscillate back and forth along the 49th parallel (western stretch of
Canadian border). This will keep the true cold air to our north
while also keeping our region under the influence of the parade of
southern stream Pacific storms. These are the systems that usually
generate the highest precipitation amounts...the strongest wind
events and have the highest frequency for producing mixed
precipitation. At least two of the three could very well come into
play during this particular time frame. As far as the day to day
details...

All the guidance packages are in lock step agreement that a large
surface high will be positioned over or just east of the Carolinas
on Thursday...while a broad mid level ridge will cross the Lower
Great Lakes. This will guarantee fair dry weather across our
forecast area to open the period...although there could still be
some leftover light lake snow showers north of the Tug. These
nuisance snow showers will die off during the course of the day
within the moderately strong warm advective pattern.

As the surface high pushes further off the coast Thursday night...
strong cyclogenesis will take place across the center of the
country. The problem is that the various guidance packages differ on
the evolution of the resulting surface low...as the models are split
on whether the southern stream energy will be the driving force (as
per the ECMWF) or the northern stream (operational GFS, bulk of GEFS
ensemble members and CMCE). Given the strength of the southern
stream systems the past week or two...will lean towards the more
trusted ECMWF from this point in the package to its end on Saturday.

That being said...an inverted trough is forecast to extend from a
well developed surface low over the southern Plains to the Upper
Great Lakes Thursday night. Low level convergence associated with
the inverted trough and subsequent ribbon of deeper moisture will
support widespread showers just to the west of our forecast
area...but given the continued warm advection...can envision some of
these rain or snow showers bleeding over across the western counties
and Thousand Islands region. For the most part though...there should
be little if any weather to deal with. Mins will probably occur
around midnight with a subtle temperature increase as we advance
through the wee hours of the morning.

On Friday...deepening low pressure will track from the Lower
Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley with the northward extending
inverted trough crossing into our forecast area. While mixed
precipitation will be likely in this scenario during the morning...
all rain is expected for our region during the afternoon and
evening. Given the surge of warmth within a strengthening southerly
flow...have aimed above most guidance packages for max temps with
most areas now forecast to reach 45 to 50. These numbers may even be
conservative.

The center of the surface low should continue to move northeast
across our general forecast area Friday night. Without any phasing
with the northern branch...am not anticipating that the storm will
significant deepen as it moves past our region. This should preclude
it from generating significant winds...like the storm system from
Thursday night-Friday of this past week...or the system that will
move by in the days immediately preceding this period. Both of
those events featured significant phasing with the northern branch.
In any case...Friday night should feature widespread rain showers...
if not several hours of steady rain. The precipitation will probably
mix with or change to snow showers late.

Finally for Saturday...the various guidance packages are in general
agreement that the storm system will be exiting across New England
or the St Lawrence Valley. This will allow for fairly strong col
advection over our region with residual precipitation falling as
snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A band of light to moderate lake effect snow will continue early
this morning southeast of Lake Ontario focused near KFZY with IFR
conditions. The lake effect snow will weaken and end later this
morning at the southeast corner of the lake. Elsewhere, a few
flurries and MVFR CIGS will continue early this morning from near
KBUF eastward across KROC and into the western Finger Lakes.

Otherwise expect mid level clouds to thicken and lower ahead of the
next system today with VFR CIGS. Spotty light snow will develop this
evening and continue overnight with areas of MVFR/IFR VSBY. CIGS
will likely remain VFR in most locations tonight, with MVFR becoming
likely across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier where
low levels are most likely to saturate.

Outlook...

Monday...MVFR with a chance of light snow showers early,
otherwise VFR.
Monday night...Deteriorating to IFR late with snow developing.
Tuesday...Areas of IFR with snow changing to wintry mix and then
rain.
Wednesday...Areas of IFR with snow likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure drifting off the Mid Atlantic coast today will bring a
brief period of light winds to the eastern Great Lakes today through
the first half of tonight. Northeast winds will then increase late
tonight and Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between high
pressure over Quebec and low pressure moving into the Upper Midwest.
This will bring another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to
the south shore of Lake Ontario. The easterly winds will continue to
strengthen Monday night and Tuesday as the low approaches. This low
will cross the eastern Great Lakes later Tuesday night, with winds
becoming southwest Wednesday with Small Craft advisory conditions
continuing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for NYZ005>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ005-006.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
730 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-110030-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
730 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-006-110030-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
730 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-110030-
Jefferson-Lewis-
730 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A storm system will bring a period of snow Tuesday and Tuesday night
to the North Country. While a little rain could mix in, snow will be
the primary precipitation type...with potential for significant
accumulations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-110030-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
730 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-110030-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
730 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf