Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

492 
WWUS41 KBUF 232257
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
557 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

NYZ007-008-240700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-190123T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T1200Z-190126T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
557 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 7 to 14 inches possible in the most persistent 
  lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. 

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ006-240700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-190123T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T1200Z-190126T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
557 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 15 inches possible in the most persistent 
  lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-085-240700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T0600Z-190126T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
557 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 16 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-240700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190126T0000Z-190126T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
557 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 18 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Wayne and Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Apffel

475 
WWUS41 KBUF 240251
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
951 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

NYZ019-020-085-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T0600Z-190126T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
951 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 16 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T1200Z-190126T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
951 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 7 to 14 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ006-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T1200Z-190126T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
951 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 15 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190126T0000Z-190126T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
951 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 18 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Wayne and Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Apffel

924 
WWUS41 KBUF 240831
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
331 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

NYZ010-011-241645-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T0600Z-190126T1200Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
331 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 14 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 40 mph on Friday producing blowing 
  and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. The greatest snow
  amounts are expected across the Buffalo Southtowns and southwest
  Genesee County.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult with deep
  snow cover on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commute on
  Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012-241645-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T0600Z-190126T1200Z/
Wyoming-
Including the city of Warsaw
331 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 16 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Friday producing blowing and
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming county. The greatest snow amounts are expected
  across the higher terrain in the western portion of the county.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult with deep
  snow cover on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commute on
  Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-085-241645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T0600Z-190126T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
331 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 16 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Friday producing blowing and
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. The
  greatest snow amounts are expected in southern Erie County and
  the far northern portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus
  counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult with deep
  snow cover on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commute on
  Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-241645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T1200Z-190126T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
331 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 9 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 35 mph Friday producing blowing and
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult with deep
  snow cover on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ006-241645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T1200Z-190126T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
331 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 14 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Friday producing blowing and
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult with deep
  snow cover on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-241645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190126T0000Z-190126T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
331 AM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. The greatest snow
  amounts are expected in far northeast Wayne and far northern
  Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult with deep
  snow cover on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

382 
WWUS41 KBUF 241757
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1257 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

NYZ004-005-241900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190126T0000Z-190126T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
1257 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

A lake effect band is expected to develop Friday and last through
Saturday morning, but it should remain north of northern Wayne and Cayuga
counties. The band will impact areas east of Lake Ontario.

$$

NYZ010-011-250200-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T0600Z-190126T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.190125T0600Z-190126T0600Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
1257 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 7 to 14 inches expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Just south of Metro Buffalo, and west and south of
  Batavia. This includes areas from about Lackawanna east through
  Alden and Corfu. 

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4280 7827 4299 7818 4300 7854 4288 7889 
        4279 7890 4274 7903 4239 7962 4237 7959 4247 7919 
        4252 7909 
TIME Y19M01D25T0700Z-Y19M01D25T1200Z
COORD...4272 7831 4283 7836 4279 7869 4274 7879 
        4258 7929 4242 7945 4241 7929 4248 7906 4256 7852 
        4262 7839 
TIME Y19M01D25T1200Z-Y19M01D25T1800Z
COORD...4277 7840 4287 7834 4292 7840 4290 7864 
        4279 7893 4268 7913 4262 7914 4267 7877 4268 7859 
        4272 7856 
TIME Y19M01D25T1800Z-Y19M01D26T0000Z
COORD...4261 7836 4289 7834 4290 7844 4277 7887 
        4276 7900 4234 7970 4225 7973 4242 7914 4252 7880 
        4256 7848 
TIME Y19M01D26T0000Z-Y19M01D26T0600Z

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-250200-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T0600Z-190126T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.190125T0600Z-190126T1200Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
1257 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 9 to 17 inches expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Western Wyoming, Northern Chautauqua, and Southern Erie
  counties, and the far northwest corner of Cattaraugus County.
  This includes the Buffalo area Southtowns. 

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4280 7827 4299 7818 4300 7854 4288 7889 
        4279 7890 4274 7903 4239 7962 4237 7959 4247 7919 
        4252 7909 
TIME Y19M01D25T0700Z-Y19M01D25T1200Z
COORD...4272 7831 4283 7836 4279 7869 4274 7879 
        4258 7929 4242 7945 4241 7929 4248 7906 4256 7852 
        4262 7839 
TIME Y19M01D25T1200Z-Y19M01D25T1800Z
COORD...4277 7840 4287 7834 4292 7840 4290 7864 
        4279 7893 4268 7913 4262 7914 4267 7877 4268 7859 
        4272 7856 
TIME Y19M01D25T1800Z-Y19M01D26T0000Z
COORD...4261 7836 4289 7834 4290 7844 4277 7887 
        4276 7900 4234 7970 4225 7973 4242 7914 4252 7880 
        4256 7848 
TIME Y19M01D26T0000Z-Y19M01D26T0600Z
COORD...4250 7834 4263 7836 4263 7884 4265 7883 
        4260 7926 4234 7970 4214 7977 4217 7959 4233 7915 
        4237 7864 
TIME Y19M01D26T0600Z-Y19M01D26T1200Z

$$

NYZ007-008-250200-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T1200Z-190126T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.190125T1200Z-190126T1500Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1257 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 9 to 17 inches expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties, particularly south of
  Watertown and over the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4407 7561 4417 7531 4439 7581 4415 7638 
        4386 7637 4363 7618 4360 7594 4372 7565 
TIME Y19M01D25T1200Z-Y19M01D25T1800Z
COORD...4408 7515 4425 7551 4414 7611 4399 7634 
        4355 7625 4350 7556 4369 7529 4367 7512 
TIME Y19M01D25T1800Z-Y19M01D26T0000Z
COORD...4366 7520 4382 7536 4384 7570 4376 7623 
        4359 7625 4349 7656 4338 7617 4352 7542 
TIME Y19M01D26T0000Z-Y19M01D26T0600Z
COORD...4388 7565 4393 7576 4385 7629 4365 7623 
        4359 7625 4343 7640 4352 7602 4367 7575 
TIME Y19M01D26T0600Z-Y19M01D26T1200Z
COORD...4392 7564 4415 7580 4418 7606 4410 7639 
        4386 7637 4361 7623 4359 7606 4366 7569 
TIME Y19M01D26T1200Z-Y19M01D26T1500Z

$$

NYZ006-250200-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.190125T1200Z-190126T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.190125T1200Z-190126T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
1257 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 9 to 17 inches expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Oswego county toward the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4407 7561 4417 7531 4439 7581 4415 7638 
        4386 7637 4363 7618 4360 7594 4372 7565 
TIME Y19M01D25T1200Z-Y19M01D25T1800Z
COORD...4408 7515 4425 7551 4414 7611 4399 7634 
        4355 7625 4350 7556 4369 7529 4367 7512 
TIME Y19M01D25T1800Z-Y19M01D26T0000Z
COORD...4366 7520 4382 7536 4384 7570 4376 7623 
        4359 7625 4349 7656 4338 7617 4352 7542 
TIME Y19M01D26T0000Z-Y19M01D26T0600Z
COORD...4388 7565 4393 7576 4385 7629 4365 7623 
        4359 7625 4343 7640 4352 7602 4367 7575 
TIME Y19M01D26T0600Z-Y19M01D26T1200Z
COORD...4392 7564 4415 7580 4418 7606 4410 7639 
        4386 7637 4361 7623 4359 7606 4366 7569 
TIME Y19M01D26T1200Z-Y19M01D26T1500Z

$$

HSK/Zaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1003 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will track into the Central Great Lakes by
this afternoon. This will cause a wintry mixture of precipitation,
before changing to all rain from west to east. Temperatures will
continue to rise today as the area of low pressure approaches the
region. Cooling temperatures will follow behind this system through
the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Slick conditions are present across parts of western NY this
morning. Although most areas are getting a break in
precipitation, more steady precipitation will spread eastward
this morning. Temperatures are slowly climbing with areas along
the Lake Erie shoreline and into the Niagara Frontier above
freezing. Winter Weather Advisory was canceled for these
locations. Moving inland, colder temperatures persist across
interior parts of NY including parts of the Genesee Valley,
southeast shore of Lake Ontario, western Finger Lakes and the
interior Southern Tier. Freezing temperatures will allow these
areas to experience another round of icing through the morning
hours. Temperatures will continue to climb today however due to
the recent cold snap, the frozen ground will allow rain to
freeze on contact. Use caution even if thermometers say 32-35
degrees.

An area of low pressure is approaching the Central Great Lakes from
the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning. Out ahead of this system,
mid-level warm air advection has warmed the mid-levels to above
freezing in some areas, and will continue to do so from west to east
through the morning. Temperatures will continue to warm this
morning as a warm front passes through the area ahead of the
approaching low pressure system. Once temperatures warm with the
warm frontal passage, precipitation will change to rain from
west to east.

East of Lake Ontario, snow will continue into the morning hours
before transitioning to freezing rain through the afternoon.
Total snow accumulations of up to 2 inches with the higher
amounts across the northern Tug Hill region. A Winter Weather
Advisory for east of Lake Ontario in effect for 7 AM - 6PM
Wednesday. Total ice accumulation of a few hundredths to a tenth
of an inch across the region, except around a tenth of an inch
east of Lake Ontario.

As the area of low pressure approaches the region, an area of high
pressure will slowly shift east off the mid-Atlantic coast. An
increasing pressure gradient between these two systems will develop,
resulting in gusty winds of 25-35 MPH for most areas. A strong
southerly flow and passing warm front will increase warm air
advection today, and temperatures will warm to the upper 30s to mid
40s across areas from the Northern Finger Lakes westward. Areas
across the North Country will stay slightly cooler with highs
reaching the mid to upper 30s, where the transition to all rain will
not last as long before the cold front passes later in the evening.

The area of low pressure will center over Lake Huron by this evening
and continue northeast into Central Quebec by Thursday morning. As
the area of low pressure tracks northeast, a trailing cold front
will pass through the area. The cold front will cross the area this
evening into the overnight from west to east. As temperatures drop
behind the passing cold front, any remaining rain will change to a
rain snow mix and then all snow. Low temperatures tonight will drop
to the upper 20s and low 30s after the cold front passes through the
region.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...Significant lake snows possible during this period...

Surface cold front will be in the process of exiting east of the
area Thursday morning. The rain will be transitioning to snow showers
east of the Finger Lakes during the morning. Once the cold front
moves east, the steady precipitation will end leaving some residual
snow showers or flurries into the afternoon. Temperatures will be
the warmest early in the day, before slowly cooling through the
afternoon.

A clipper low and associated arctic cold front will approach the
region Thursday night. Most of the area will see scattered snow
showers ahead of this feature. General westerly flow will give an
additional boost to snowfall east of the lakes with the potential
for a few inches through Thursday night.

On Friday...moderate to heavy lake snow will become established east
of Lake Ontario with less impressive snows found east of Lake Erie.
There will be three main reasons for the difference. The first will
be the aforementioned arctic cold front that will stall in the
vicinity of Lake Ontario. The front will serve as an additional
focusing mechanism for lake snows that should already be in place
over the center of the lake. Most guidance packages are already
locking onto the idea that there will be an area of strong low level
convergence in this area...both due to the thermal circulation over
the lake and also from the synoptic scale forcing from the stalled
boundary. The second reason for the more impressive snows off this
lake will be the multi-lake connection. This is even picked up by
the more course global models such as the ECMWF. Do not under-
estimate the significance of this upstream priming! Finally...the
plume will be nearly parallel to the axis of the lake...maximizing
residency time for more efficient heat and moisture transport off
the lake surface. That all being said...this band will have the
potential to produce multiple feet of snow with hourly rates
exceeding 2 inches.

As for the Lake Erie based snows...the westerly flow will be more
orthogonal to the lake...so multiple bands will be more likely than
a single plume. While there will be a little upstream priming from
the southern part of Lake Michigan...this is not expected to be a
significant contributor. There will however be added orographic lift
from the Chautauqua ridge. This should also help to broaden the area
of snow immediately downstream. While significant accumulations will
be possible off Lake Erie...rates and totals should pale in
comparison to those of its sister lake to the north. Stay tuned.

Otherwise...it will be a colder day across the region with
temperatures generally in the teens being accompanied by some
flurries and nuisance light snow showers. Pops will be reduced from
continuity in areas outside of the above detailed lake snow areas.

For Friday night...the synoptic environment will be nearly identical
to the previous 12 hours with a stalled arctic boundary in the
vicinity of Lake Ontario. Meanwhile...while it will be a few degrees
colder aloft...the general thermal profile will be very similar as
well. The colder air will offer the potential for steeper lapse
rates and higher capping inversion...so if anything...lake snows
could be more organized/impressive. Mins Friday night will generally
be in the single digits.

Arctic high pressure over Quebec Saturday morning is forecast to
push off to the east during the course of the day. This will combine
with a digging upstream shortwave to back the steering flow more to
the southwest. This in turn will allow the arctic front that had
been stalled over Lake Ontario to push back to the north...removing
the focusing mechanism for strong low level convergence over Lake
Ontario and likely ending the moderate to heavy lake snow. The
backing of the winds will also break the enhancing upstream
connections. The result should be a weakening of the lake snows
while they push to the north within the backing flow. Elsewhere...
general subsidence should keep mainly fair weather in place.

The backing flow will continue through Saturday night while the
limiting inversion will lower. This should further weaken/diminish
the scope of the lake snows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Below normal temperatures into February...

Confidence remains off the charts that temperatures will average
below normal during this period...as a highly amplified pattern will
be in place across the continent. In fact...there is a strong
suggestion from many of the medium range ensembles that the blocky
pattern will be highlighted by the polar vortex settling as far
south as Lake Superior! This is some 500-1000 miles further south
than normal...something that we only see a few times a decade.

In regards to the overall pattern though...an extremely robust
ridge will extend from Baja California poleward to the East Siberian
Sea (north of Siberia) while ridging will oscillate over Greenland.
This coupled +PNA and -NAO pattern is a CLASSIC cold weather
scenario...one that has supported some of the coldest outbreaks on
record. The two ridges will essentially lock a huge closed low (ie
polar vortex) over eastern Canada. As mentioned in previous
discussions...the coldest air in the northern hemisphere is
associated with this notorious feature. H85 temperatures are
forecast to be in the vcnty of -36c when the vortex is at its
southernmost extent next weekend (outside of this forecast period).
The combination of the expansive latitudinal west coast ridge and
'trapped' closed low will establish a prolonged cross polar flow
during this whole period...so this will ensure below normal temps.

Also...be wary of using simple NAO and PNA indices as a guide. These
indices are often calculated at specific points...so if the
hemispheric feature does not coincide with the point...the values
shown could be very misleading. It is suggested to use the actual
500 700mb forecast charts to see where the features are placed. This
is certainly the case during this period as the west coast ridge is
some 500 miles too far west to be picked up by the PNA index...the
Greenland block is oscillating between being oriented north-
south and east-west so the NAO index is somewhat misleading. Be
careful.

As for the day to day weather...the next vigorous shortwave will
further amplify a trough over the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday. The
corresponding surface reflection in the vcnty of the Ontario-Quebec
provincial border will push the next cold front across our forecast
area...and this will lead to scattered snow showers Sunday and
Sunday night. While it is a little early to be specific...there
should be a little lake effect that sets up in its wake overnight.

High pressure nosing southwards across the region should support
mainly dry weather on Monday...but will leave low chc pops in place
to account for timing differences between the various ensemble
members.

There is fairly good consensus in the packages that an organized
area of low pressure will then track across the Lower Great Lakes
Monday night and Tuesday. Will carry likely pops for some snow for
this period. True arctic air will then pour across the region in the
wake of the storm for days immediately following this forecast
period.

Speaking of which...the above described longwave pattern should
support below...to MUCH below...normal temperatures right into the
start of February.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A 60 knot LLJ will cause low level wind shear into this morning
across western NY. Snow, changing to a wintry mix of snow, sleet and
freezing rain will change to freezing rain, before changing to rain
as temperatures rise. East of Lake Ontario/KART, light snow will
begin this morning and transition to sleet and freezing rain through
the afternoon. As temperatures rise, freezing rain will transition
to rain across far western NY, KBUF,KIAG,KJHW this morning and by
afternoon at KROC. SN/FZRA will linger east of Lake Ontario through
the afternoon.

VFR conditions will become MVFR/IFR this morning and remain MVFR/IFR
this afternoon.

Tonight, colder air will build into the region which will change
precipitation over to snow from west to east. Expect mainly MVFR/IFR
conditions to last tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR to MVFR with scattered snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...VFR to MVFR in scattered to numerous snow
showers, with IFR possible in more numerous snow showers east of the
lakes.

Sunday...A chance of snow showers. MVFR likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Today a low pressure system will cut through the Central Great Lakes
and towards Quebec. A cold front from this system will drop across
the Eastern Great Lakes later today. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for most of the nearshore waters as outlined below. Winds may
briefly diminish Thursday, but then will increase in advance of the
next system which is likely to require more small craft headlines.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ004-005-013-014-021.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ003-012-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for
         LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HSK/SW
SHORT TERM...RSH/TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Apffel/HSK
MARINE...Apffel/HSK/Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1233 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

NYZ004-005-013-014-021-241745-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
1233 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-241745-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
1233 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-241745-
Cattaraugus-
1233 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-241745-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
1233 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A significant lake effect snow event is looking more possible from
later Thursday night into Saturday. If guidance remains consistent...
several feet of snow could accumulate in the vicinity of the Tug
Hill.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-241745-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1233 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-241745-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1233 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1208 PM EST WED JAN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 AM     FREEZING RAIN    WELLSVILLE MUNICIPAL AI 42.11N  77.98W
01/23/2019  M0.07 INCH       ALLEGANY           NY   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900431

JAM