Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Watches in 2019

Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 8, 20195 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter storm watch at Jan 8, 2019, 2:31 PM EST for 5 counties in New York. It took effect at Jan 9, 2019, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 8, 2019, 2:31 PM EST (19:31 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 9, 2019, 10:00 AM EST
Expired
Jan 9, 2019, 3:39 AM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Cayuga County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-01-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-01-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 187 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-38 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
667 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
187 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
187 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

404 
WWUS41 KBUF 081931
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
231 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

NYZ012-019-020-085-090345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0001.190109T0600Z-190110T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.190109T0600Z-190110T2300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
231 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to 2 feet expected in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph causing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-090345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.190109T1800Z-190110T1100Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
231 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3
  to 6 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 40 mph causing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-090345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1500Z-190110T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
231 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 
  14 inches possible.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ006-090345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1500Z-190110T2300Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
231 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 15 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 35 mph causing areas of blowing
  snow.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-090345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1800Z-190111T1100Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
231 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 7 to 14 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 40 mph causing areas of blowing 
  snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

TMA/DT
3 follow-up statements
518 
WWUS41 KBUF 082013
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
313 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

NYZ012-019-020-085-090415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.190109T0600Z-190110T2300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
313 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO
6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of up to 2 feet expected in the most persistent 
  lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph causing areas of 
  blowing snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4266 7812 4284 7818 4247 7928 4223 7976 
        4199 7977 4209 7913 4200 7912 4199 7873 4211 7865 
        4225 7825 
TIME Y19M01D09T0600Z-Y19M01D09T2100Z
COORD...4261 7813 4283 7809 4285 7838 4246 7916 
        4240 7941 4221 7976 4199 7977 4199 7947 4209 7884 
        4215 7856 
TIME Y19M01D09T2100Z-Y19M01D10T2300Z

$$

NYZ021-090415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.190109T1800Z-190110T1100Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
313 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  3 to 6 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph causing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-090415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1500Z-190110T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
313 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 
  14 inches possible.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ006-090415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1500Z-190110T2300Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
313 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 15 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph 
  causing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-090415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1800Z-190111T1100Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
313 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 7 to 14 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph 
  causing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

TMA/DT
983 
WWUS41 KBUF 090256
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
956 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

NYZ012-019-020-085-091100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.190109T0600Z-190110T2300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
956 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO
6 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of up to 2 feet expected in the most persistent 
  lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph causing areas of 
  blowing snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4252 7834 4275 7822 4271 7876 4249 7916 
        4247 7928 4223 7976 4199 7977 4200 7909 4209 7869 
        4225 7845 
TIME Y19M01D09T0600Z-Y19M01D09T2100Z
COORD...4252 7834 4274 7828 4272 7864 4268 7883 
        4242 7945 4225 7976 4199 7977 4200 7861 4209 7859 
        4220 7837 
TIME Y19M01D09T2100Z-Y19M01D10T2300Z

$$

NYZ021-091100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.190109T1800Z-190110T1100Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
956 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  3 to 6 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph causing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-091100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1500Z-190110T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
956 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 
  14 inches possible.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.

&&

$$

NYZ006-091100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1500Z-190110T2300Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
956 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 15 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph 
  causing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-091100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1800Z-190111T1100Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
956 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 7 to 14 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph 
  causing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to 
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning 
  or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$
794 
WWUS41 KBUF 090839
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
339 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

NYZ007-008-091700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1500Z-190110T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190110T1200Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
339 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 15
  inches, with the greatest amounts across the higher terrain. 

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could become very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-091700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1500Z-190110T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190111T0000Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
339 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  8 to 16 inches in the most persistent lake snows, with the
  greatest amounts across the Tug Hill. Winds gusting as high as
  40 mph also producing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could become very difficult. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4369 7577 4371 7598 4367 7602 4369 7617 
        4363 7620 4346 7623 4336 7611 4333 7587 4348 7581 
        4347 7576 
TIME Y19M01D09T0900Z-Y19M01D09T2000Z
COORD...4347 7576 4369 7577 4371 7598 4354 7622 
        4330 7681 4326 7739 4304 7737 4302 7650 4324 7645 
        4329 7588 
TIME Y19M01D09T2000Z-Y19M01D10T1100Z
COORD...4340 7606 4350 7605 4349 7634 4338 7656 
        4322 7736 4304 7731 4300 7695 4302 7650 4322 7647 
        4322 7631 
TIME Y19M01D10T1100Z-Y19M01D11T0000Z

$$

NYZ004-005-091700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1800Z-190111T1100Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.WS.W.0001.190109T2000Z-190111T0000Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
339 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 5 to 10 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph also producing areas of blowing
  snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could become difficult. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and
  Thursday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4347 7576 4369 7577 4371 7598 4354 7622 
        4330 7681 4326 7739 4304 7737 4302 7650 4324 7645 
        4329 7588 
TIME Y19M01D09T2000Z-Y19M01D10T1100Z
COORD...4340 7606 4350 7605 4349 7634 4338 7656 
        4322 7736 4304 7731 4300 7695 4302 7650 4322 7647 
        4322 7631 
TIME Y19M01D10T1100Z-Y19M01D11T0000Z

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-091700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190110T2300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
339 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  9 to 18 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting
  as high as 40 mph also producing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could become very difficult. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4252 7834 4275 7822 4271 7876 4249 7916 
        4247 7928 4223 7976 4199 7977 4200 7909 4209 7869 
        4225 7845 
TIME Y19M01D09T0900Z-Y19M01D09T2100Z
COORD...4252 7834 4274 7828 4272 7864 4268 7883 
        4242 7945 4225 7976 4199 7977 4200 7861 4209 7859 
        4220 7837 
TIME Y19M01D09T2100Z-Y19M01D10T2300Z

$$

NYZ003-014-091700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.190109T2000Z-190111T0000Z/
Monroe-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester and Canandaigua
339 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4
  to 7 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 40 mph also producing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Monroe and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could become hazardous. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and
  Thursday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-091700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0003.190109T1800Z-190110T1100Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
339 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3
  to 6 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph also producing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

JJR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Jan 8, 1:10 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 8, 1:10 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
110 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight, with rain showers
changing to snow. As the cold air deepens Wednesday, lake effect
snow will increase to the east and southeast of the Eastern Great
Lakes, with moderate to heavy snowfall rates through the afternoon
and overnight hours. Lake effect snow will continue Wednesday night
and Thursday to the southeast of the Eastern Great Lakes before the
core of the cold air shifts eastward Thursday night and lake effect
snow diminishes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An area of showers and embedded thunder is crossing WNY this
afternoon. Severe chances are minimal, though some pea size hail is
possible. This area of showers and waning thunderstorms will pass
through the remainder of the forecast area this afternoon, with a
brief lull behind it. Another round of primarily rain showers will
reach WNY late this afternoon and early evening ahead of a compact
shortwave.

High temperatures today will reach the mid to upper 40s from Western
New York to the Genesee Valley. Temperatures east of the Genesee
Valley into the North Country will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A robust shortwave trough will rotate around the base of a large
scale trough tonight. The trough will move south into the Mid-
Atlantic region pushing the northern stream southward. Upward motion
will intensify across western and north central NY this evening as
the left exit region is located across NYS. Surface low pressure
will consequently deepen as it tracks from Lake Ontario to the NYS
Capital region tonight. Mid-level frontogenesis will be enhanced
across WNY this evening and rain becoming snow will spread across
western and north central NY. Temperatures will start on the mild
side this evening but will drop quickly overnight as winds become
west-northwest behind the low. Breezy conditions expected Wednesday
morning especially near the lake shores with gusts reaching 30-35
mph. Gusts up to 45 mph are possible along the Lake Erie shoreline
beginning tonight and diminishing by Wednesday morning. A Wind
Advisory may be needed for the Lake Erie shoreline. Rain will
transition to snow on the higher terrain late tonight and across the
Lake PLains by Wednesday morning. A wet snow accumulation of 1-2
inches is expected by Wednesday morning across the western Southern
Tier and Southtowns especially along the Chautauqua Ridge. East of
Lake Ontario, accumulations will be confined to the Tug Hill.
Temperatures will fall into the low 30's along the Lake Plains to
the mid to upper 20's across the higher terrain.

Low pressure moves into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday morning and will
slowly curve northward into northern Maine by Wednesday night. A
surge of cold, Canadian air will move into the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday with 850mb temperatures falling to the minus teens C
through the afternoon and persisting through Wednesday night. The
large scale trough will be overhead while multiple shortwaves drop
south and across the forecast area. Deep moisture in west-northwest
flow will persist into Wednesday evening with lake induced
equilibrium levels holding steady at 8-10k feet. Lake effect snow is
expected across the forecast area and will be enhanced by the higher
terrain. Off Lake Erie, winds will become northwest Wednesday
evening and an upstream connection with Lake Huron will provide
additional moisture. Moderate to heavy snow accumulation is likely
along the Chautauqua Ridge and into the Boston Hills during this
time. Snow ratios will rise above 10:1 especially across the higher
terrain and snow accumulations of 6-12 inches are possible Wednesday-
Thursday. For this reason, A Winter Storm Watch was posted and is in
effect from late tonight into Thursday with the greatest
accumulation along the Chautauqua Ridge Wednesday-Wednesday night.
Off Lake Ontario, northwest flow will provide lake effect and
upslope snow showers along the southern shore with moderate snow
showers from Wayne County eastward to the Tug Hill region. Northwest
flow will provide enhancement on the northern side of the Tug Hill
and northern Jefferson and Lewis counties will see lesser amounts.
Moderate snow accumulations of 5-10 inches will be confined to the
Tug Hill. Due to the isolated nature of these amounts and that the
amounts will be spread out across Wednesday-Thursday, will not be
issuing any Winter Headlines at this time. Elsewhere, minor
accumulations of 1-3 inches are possible Wed-Wed night.

Winds and temperatures...west winds will become northwest Wednesday
evening. Breezy conditions expected during this time and gusts up to
40 mph are expected. This may cause areas of blowing snow into
Thursday morning. Cold air advection will keep temperatures from
rising too much Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 30's along
the Lake Plains and upper 20's across the higher terrain.
Temperatures will fall into the teens and low 20's Wednesday
night.

Northwest flow continues Thursday as the backside of the large
trough tracks across the eastern Great Lakes. Deep layer moisture
will decrease through the afternoon and subsidence will increase as
high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. EQL will lower to 5k feet
east of Lake Erie and snow showers will become more scattered.
Better conditions will persist across eastern Lake Ontario and snow
showers will persist with minor accumulations. Cold temperatures
Thursday with temperatures in the low to mid 20's and the teens
across the Tug Hill Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold northwest flow will continue through at least Friday morning
before surface high pressure crests over the eastern Great Lakes.
Inversion heights are quite low at around 6K feet, but given how
cold the airmass is the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone will
still be below the inversion. This will still support scattered
light snow showers southeast of the lakes. Temperatures will be well
below average, with highs in the teens in most areas, and single
digits across the North Country. The lingering weak lake response
will slowly come to an end later Friday or Friday night.

Our attention then turns to a potential synoptic system for the
weekend. Model guidance has been showing plenty of run to run
variation on the handling of this system. A trough will move out of
the 4 corners region Friday before reaching the Tennessee Valley by
Saturday night, then moving to the Mid Atlantic Sunday with a
surface low taking a similar track. Meanwhile a northern stream
trough will move across the Great Lakes. The degree to which these
two systems phase (if at all) will have important implications on
our region. More phasing would likely bring a farther north and
stronger solution with potential for widespread snow across our
region. Less phasing would keep the southern stream system farther
south, with direct impacts focused more on the central Appalachians
and Mid Atlantic/southern New England. Given the model differences,
have kept low chance POPS for snow for the weekend.

Temperatures will return to closer to average over the weekend and
early next week after a few cold days at the end of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS several weather events will bring a reduction in
flight conditions over the next 24 hours. The first is a wave of
showers and embedded thunder...that will cross the TAF region over
the next 3 to 6 hours. The next is another area of showers, that
will change to snow as a cold front swings across the TAF region
between 00Z and 06Z. Lastly as cold air continues to deepen over the
Eastern Great Lakes, lake effect snow will develop, with impacts to
the east, and then southeast of the Lakes. Lake effect snow will
likely impact KJHW the last 6 hours or so of the TAF cycle, with
KART, KBUF and KROC on the fringes of the bands and greater odds of
VFR flight conditions through the early afternoon hours of
Wednesday.

West to northwest winds will become gusty early tomorrow morning,
especially across KBUF/KIAG and KROC where gusts may reach 30 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...MVFR/IFR in fairly widespread snow
showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR in scattered snow showers...along with
areas of IFR in lake enhancement southeast of the lakes.

Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers
southeast of the lakes.

Sunday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of light snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will briefly weaken through the afternoon today. Winds will
increase again this evening as an area of low pressure and
tightening pressure gradient approach from the west. Small Craft
conditions are expected, starting this evening and overnight for all
lake zones on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where Small Craft
Advisories have been issued.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from 1 AM EST Wednesday through Thursday
     afternoon for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EST
         Thursday night for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM
         EST Friday for LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight EST
         Thursday night for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...SW
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 8, 10:16 AM EST, 4 hours 15 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

NYZ001-005-010-011-013-014-021-091530-
Niagara-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario-
Allegany-
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-091530-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-091530-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A period of accumulating snow is expected from late tonight through
Wednesday night. Moderate accumulations are possible across the
higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the
Adirondacks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-091530-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-091530-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-091530-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002>004-091530-
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-
1016 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

West winds will increase Wednesday morning and gusts up to 45 mph
are possible along the Lake Ontario shoreline through Wednesday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 8, 11:12 AM EST, 3 hours 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1112 AM EST TUE JAN 08 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 AM     FREEZING RAIN    5 NE CARTHAGE           44.04N  75.53W
01/08/2019  M0.12 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/8" OF ICE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900108

DPK
Special weather statement, Jan 8, 11:22 AM EST, 3 hours 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1122 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-081730-
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean,
Orchard Park, and Springville
1122 AM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
WESTERN NEW YORK...

An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms was located over
eastern Lake Erie and western Chautauqua county, moving
northeast at 40 mph. This area of showers and thunderstorms will
move across western New York through 1230 PM.

Winds of 35 to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
area of showers and thunderstorms.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Jamestown,
Clarence, Lackawanna, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda, Dunkirk,
Fredonia, Lancaster, Hamburg, East Aurora, Salamanca, Williamsville,
Allegany State Park and Grand Island.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 60 and 49.
 Interstate 86 between exits 6 and 24.

TMA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 8, 4:06 AM ESTWinter Storm WatchBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming10 hr
Jan 8, 5:36 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF3 days
Jan 8, 2:31 PM ESTWinter Storm WarningBUFCattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Jefferson, Lewis and 3 more48 hr
Jan 8, 2:31 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Erie, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara and 2 more46 hr
Jan 8, 5:13 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFChautauqua32 min

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in New York, 2019Every winter storm watch in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.