Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Warnings in 2019
Winter Storm Warning 9, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter storm warning at Mar 21, 2019, 2:39 PM EDT for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Mar 22, 2019, 2:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 27 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 21, 2019, 2:39 PM EDT (18:39 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 22, 2019, 2:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Mar 23, 2019, 4:35 AM EDT
- In force
- 27 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 3:30 AM EDT | SNOW 4.5 | W Fulton, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1253 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 201 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 274 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
195 WWUS41 KBUF 211839 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 239 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 NYZ008-220245- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0010.190322T1200Z-190323T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0009.190322T0600Z-190323T1600Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 239 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph leading to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibilities Friday afternoon and night. * WHERE...Lewis county. * WHEN...From 2 AM Friday to noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-220245- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0010.190322T1200Z-190323T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0009.190322T2100Z-190323T1600Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 239 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph leading to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibilities Friday late afternoon and night. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM Friday to noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-220245- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.190322T2100Z-190323T1200Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 239 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph leading to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibilities. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Thomas
7 follow-up statements
846 WWUS41 KBUF 220154 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 954 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 NYZ008-221030- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.190322T0600Z-190323T1600Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 954 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 inches expected. * WHERE...Lewis county. * WHEN...From 2 AM Friday to noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-221030- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.190322T2100Z-190323T1600Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 954 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM Friday to noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-221030- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.190322T2100Z-190323T1200Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 954 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Apffel
435 WWUS41 KBUF 220831 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 431 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 NYZ008-221700- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190323T1600Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 431 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. * WHERE...Lewis county...with the greatest amounts across the Tug Hill and western Adirondack foothills. * WHEN...Until noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will become difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create difficult travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-221700- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.190322T2100Z-190323T1600Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 431 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will also lead to areas of blowing snow. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will become difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create difficult travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-221700- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.190322T2100Z-190323T1200Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 431 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will also lead to areas of blowing snow. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ JJR
906 WWUS41 KBUF 221404 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1004 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 NYZ008-222215- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190323T1600Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 1004 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, greatest across the higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will produce areas of blowing snow. * WHERE...Lewis county...with the greatest amounts across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondack foothills. * WHEN...Until noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be difficult with poor visibility and snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create difficult travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-222215- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.190322T2100Z-190323T1600Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 1004 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches expected across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill, and 4 to 6 inches across lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will also lead to areas of blowing snow. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. The greatest snow amounts will be across higher terrain. * WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will become difficult with snow covered roads and reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create difficult travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-222215- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.190322T2100Z-190323T1200Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 1004 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will also lead to areas of blowing snow. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel at times with snow covered roads and reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Hitchcock
817 WWUS41 KBUF 221826 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 226 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 NYZ008-230300- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190323T1600Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 226 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, greatest across higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Lewis county. Greatest snow amounts across the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks. * WHEN...Until noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-230300- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.190322T2100Z-190323T1600Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 226 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill, and 4 to 6 inches for lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...Until noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-230300- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.190322T2100Z-190323T1200Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 226 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph producing blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Eastern Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions at times with snow covered roads and reduced visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Hitchcock
914 WWUS41 KBUF 222359 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 759 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 NYZ008-230800- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190323T1600Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 759 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, greatest across higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Lewis county. Greatest snow amounts across the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks. * WHEN...Until noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-230800- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190323T1600Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 759 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill, and 4 to 6 inches for lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...Until noon EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-230800- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-190323T1200Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 759 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph producing blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Eastern Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions at times with snow covered roads and reduced visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
892 WWUS41 KBUF 230544 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 144 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 NYZ008-231345- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190323T1600Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 144 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... * WHAT...Accumulating snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Lewis county. * WHEN...Until noon EDT today. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow may create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-231345- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190323T1600Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 144 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... * WHAT...Accumulating snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. * WHEN...Until noon EDT today. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create slick travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-231200- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-190323T1200Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 144 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of an inch or less. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
441 WWUS41 KBUF 230835 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 435 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 NYZ006>008-230945- /O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190323T1600Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 435 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... While a little snow will persist until daybreak across Jefferson and Lewis counties...additional accumulations will be less than an inch. Those heading outdoors should still use caution though...as untreated roads and sidewalks will be snow covered and slick. $$ NYZ004-005-230945- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-190323T1200Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 435 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... While the light snow from the overnight has ended...untreated roads and sidewalks will be snow covered and slick. Caution should still be used by those heading out early this morning. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Mar 21, 2:08 PM EDT, 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 21, 2:08 PM EDT, 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
208 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A complex storm system will bring light rain, changing to higher
elevation snow to eastern areas tonight, and then rain changing to
snow over the remainder of the region tomorrow. Several inches of
snow is expected to accumulate by Friday night across the region,
with greater amounts on hill tops, and significant amounts on the
Tug Hill Plateau. The storm system will end from west to east Friday
night and early Saturday morning with a cold but sunny start to the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Regional radars and surface observations display the region mainly
dry this afternoon, with just a few isolated areas of rain...mainly
across eastern areas well ahead of a developing LLJ.
Through the course of this afternoon...a broad surface low over the
western end of Lake Erie will slowly push eastward to western New
York while steadily weakening...as its energy begins to transfer to
a developing secondary cyclone lifting northward from the Carolinas
to the Delmarva region. As the initial system will only grow weaker
as it approaches our area...whatever precipitation we see today will
thus remain rather light and spotty in nature until much later this
afternoon...when a somewhat better potential for steadier pcpn will
begin to arrive across the North Country in tandem with the approach
of the secondary coastal low. With respect to ptype...the relatively
mild airmass in place across our region will ensure that the
majority of this will just fall as some plain light rain showers and
sprinkles...with only the higher terrain of the North Country seeing
a low-end potential for some light snow showers early this morning.
As for temperatures... the persistent mild airmass will help ensure
another day of above normal readings across our region...with
afternoon highs again expected to climb into the mid 40s to lower
50s.
Tonight the aforementioned coastal low will rapidly strengthen
while pushing northeastward into southern New England. This
system will initially bring a period of steadier light rain
to the North Country and portions of the Finger Lakes during the
evening...with much more scattered rain showers found across
the rest of the region. As we progress through the overnight
hours...colder air wrapping in behind this system will then
force the rain to begin to mix with/change over to some wet
snow...with this transition beginning first across the higher
terrain. This said...with only very marginal temperatures for
rain vs. snow in place...any accumulations through the nighttime
hours will remain rather light and limited to the higher terrain...
with little or no accumulation expected across the lower elevations.
Otherwise...the developing cold air advection regime will result
in temperatures falling back to the lower to mid 30s by daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper level pattern early in the weekend will feature a ridge
over the plains with a departing low over the northeast. Overhead
Saturday, there should be fairly rapid drying throughout the
atmospheric profile from west to east, resulting in dry (but breezy)
weather for WNY, and snow quickly tapering off east of Lake Ontario.
By Sunday, a shortwave ridge will be overhead with a corresponding
area of surface high pressure moving east into the Mid Atlantic
states. A cold but relatively east-west dry cold front will be
approaching from the north, but it shouldn't arrive until after
dark.
Sunday night and Monday, the above noted front should move south
through the region, while a wandering weak system somewhere over the
plains, nearly lost in the upper level prevailing ridge, tries to
gin up some moisture for the front. The GFS runs have been sparse
with precipitation, without enough moisture for much more than
spitting snow showers/flurries. The ECMWF has been a little more
robust with the midwest feature, and merges this with the cold front
more aggressively and hence with more precipitation. Will keep a
chance in the forecast until we get a little more confidence on
whether we should trend higher or lower with any precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
One thing that does look certain is the amount of cold air that will
move into the eastern Great Lakes beginning Monday night. Cold air
advection will continue through Tuesday night with 850mb
temperatures falling to a low of around -15C. Although dry, expect
winter-like temperatures for the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found across the region.
A deepening surface low off the Virginia coastline will spread
Atlantic moisture, and eventually rain to our eastern zones...that
will change to snow across the higher Tug Hill Plateau tonight. This
will lower flight conditions to MVFR towards the east, while western
zones will slowly lower to MVFR later tonight and tomorrow as an
upper level low and additional moisture reaches the region from the
west. The bulk of falling precipitation this TAF period will feature
all rain showers, with a change to snow late across KJHW and KART.
Flight conditions by early afternoon tomorrow will predominately
range from IFR to low end MVFR.
Outlook...
Friday afternoon...LIFR to MVFR with rain continuing to change over
to snow.
Saturday...Early improvement to VFR/MVFR with lingering snow showers
to the east tapering off.
Sunday...VFR.
Sunday night and Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and
snow showers.
Tuesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A secondary low along the eastern seaboard tonight will rapidly
strengthen tonight and Friday along the New England coastline. The
increase pressure gradient with this system will bring gusty west to
then northwest winds across the Lakes Friday and Friday night, with
waves pushing over 4 feet on open waters. A period of small craft
conditions is then likely to continue through Saturday evening on
the waters. High pressure will briefly build across the region Sunday
and Monday with fair boating conditions.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
morning for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...Zaff
LONG TERM...HSK/RSH
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...ThomasHazardous weather outlook, Mar 21, 4:50 AM EDT, 9 hours 49 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 450 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 NYZ001>005-010-011-220900- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee- 450 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. A storm system along the New England coast will help to circulate several inches of wet snow across the region Friday into Saturday morning. The highest accumulations will be found on grassy and elevated surfaces, with the steadiest snowfall coming Friday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012>014-019>021-085-220900- Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- 450 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Colder air moving into the area will bring the potential for accumulating snow Friday and Friday night. Several inches of snow will be possible over higher elevations. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006>008-220900- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 450 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-220900- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 450 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2:39 PM EDT | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Cayuga, Wayne | 38 hr |
| Mar 21, 4:22 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 70 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in New York, 2019Every winter storm warning in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.