Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2019

Wind Advisory 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 14, 20197 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this wind advisory at Feb 14, 2019, 12:46 PM EST for 7 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 15, 2019, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 14, 2019, 12:46 PM EST (17:46 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 15, 2019, 7:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 15, 2019, 6:43 PM EST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 49 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-02-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-02-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 135 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
644 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
135 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
189 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

002 
WWUS71 KBUF 141746
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1246 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-150200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1200Z-190216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
1246 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua 
  counties.

* TIMING...From early Friday morning through early Friday 
  evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ007-150200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1500Z-190216T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
1246 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...From late Friday morning through early Friday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$
7 follow-up statements
734 
WWUS71 KBUF 141821
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
121 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-150230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1200Z-190216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
121 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua 
  counties.

* TIMING...From early Friday morning through early Friday 
  evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ007-150230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1500Z-190216T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
121 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...From late Friday morning through early Friday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$
021 
WWUS71 KBUF 150159
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
859 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1200Z-190216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
859 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua 
  counties.

* TIMING...From early Friday morning through early Friday 
  evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ007-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1500Z-190216T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
859 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...From late Friday morning through early Friday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$
339 
WWUS71 KBUF 150554
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1254 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

NYZ003-151400-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1200Z-190216T0000Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
1254 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening.

* LOCATIONS...Monroe county.

* TIMING...From early this morning through early this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-151400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1200Z-190216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
1254 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua 
  counties.

* TIMING...From early this morning through early this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ007-151400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1500Z-190216T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
1254 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$
219 
WWUS71 KBUF 150855
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
355 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

NYZ001>003-010-011-019-085-151700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1200Z-190216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
355 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, and 
  Chautauqua counties.

* TIMING...From early this morning through early this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ007-151700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1500Z-190216T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
355 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$
115 
WWUS71 KBUF 151140
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
640 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

NYZ001>003-010-011-019-085-151945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1200Z-190216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
640 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, and 
  Chautauqua counties.

* TIMING...From early this morning through early this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ007-151945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.190215T1500Z-190216T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
640 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$
666 
WWUS71 KBUF 151956
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
256 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

NYZ001>003-010-011-019-085-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
256 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, and 
  Chautauqua counties.

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ007-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190216T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
256 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...From late this morning through early this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree 
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high 
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$
155 
WWUS71 KBUF 152343
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
643 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

NYZ001>003-007-010-011-019-085-160045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-190216T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Jefferson-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Watertown, Buffalo, Batavia, Jamestown, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
643 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Feb 14, 9:59 AM EST, 2 hours 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 14, 9:59 AM EST, 2 hours 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
959 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure nosing north into our region this morning will exit
across New England this afternoon and evening. While this will
provide us with a short lived period of uneventful weather...rain
and wet snow showers will move in ahead of a strong cold front later
tonight into Friday. Most areas will also experience another round
of strong gusty winds. Temperatures in the wake of the front will
drop back to below normal levels for much of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Flow will rapidly become southerly through the remainder of the
day from west to east. This will quickly push lake induced
stratocumulus off to the north from west to east and finally
bring to an end the lagging snow shower activity east of Lake
Ontario. However, high clouds ahead of the next system in warm
advection aloft will keep the sun from really coming out in full
force. Certainly, some veiled sun through high clouds will be
likely through the day, however a full fledged February sun day
seems unlikely. That said, with some insolation making it
through and a noticeable rebound in 850 mb temperatures toward
0C, an uptick above freezing is likely everywhere that turns
southerly. The lone exception of this will be east of Lake
Ontario, where a later arrival of the wind shift will preclude
much of a warm up until the overnight hours.

Conditions will deteriorate across our forecast area tonight...as
the large sub 1000mb storm system will track across the SOO. In the
process...the strengthening area of low pressure will push a pair of
its associated frontal boundaries across the Lower Great Lakes. The
first of these will be a warm front that will make its way across
our region overnight. While isentropic lift near and in advance of
this boundary will be enough to start to generate some rain and wet
snow showers...stronger lift in the form of a 50kt low level jet
will be found ahead of a potent cold front that will advance to the
Niagara River and easternmost Lake Erie by daybreak. Given the deep
tongue of moisture between the two sfc boundaries...will raise pops
to categorical for the entire region.

Mins tonight are expected to occur before midnight...as moderately
strong warm advection will be in place for much of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday low pressure just north of Lake Huron will steadily
push northeastward into Quebec Province...and in the process will
sweep its trailing cold front across our area during the morning.
Fairly widespread rain showers (possibly mixed with a little snow
initially across the North Country) along and ahead of the front
will quickly give way to a period of relatively dry conditions
in its wake as strong dry slotting overspreads the region aloft.
By midday/early afternoon the incoming colder airmass will become
cold enough to support a lake response east and northeast of Lake
Erie...though this should be more muted than Wednesday's and last
Friday's LES events given inversion heights of only 4-5 kft and
correspondingly shallow moisture...both of which should help to keep
any accumulations relatively minor. The same general scenario will
also unfold by late afternoon/early evening east and northeast of
Lake Ontario...with any resultant accumulations there also on the
minor side given the much later start. Otherwise increasing cold
advection and the resultant mixing/downward transport of higher
momentum air from aloft will also result in another round of rather
windy conditions developing in the wake of the cold front...with
gusts reaching to 30-40 mph in many areas...and possibly to as high
as 45-50 mph (low-end advisory criteria) downwind of Lake Erie...a
mention of which has been added to the HWO. Expect temperatures to
peak in the upper 30s to mid 40s out ahead of the front...before
falling an average of 10 degrees by the end of the day.

Friday night some widely scattered wraparound snow showers will
remain possible across our region...while lake snows continue
east and then southeast of both lakes on a slowly veering low level
flow. Off Lake Erie these should remain rather minor given the
extensive ice cover on lake...a low cap of 3-4 kft...shortening
fetch...and shallow background moisture...all of which should keep
additional accumulations light. Off Lake Ontario it should be a
different story as a higher cap and deeper moisture will be in place
with the flow also remaining aligned more closely with the long axis
of the lake...all factors that should allow for a more organized
band to sink southward from the Tug Hill region to Oswego and
Northern Cayuga counties. This should allow for at least a few
additional inches of accumulation...and possibly amounts worthy of a
winter weather headline. Otherwise winds will gradually relax as the
supporting area of low pressure pulls further away from our region...
with overnight lows settling back into the upper teens to lower
20s.

Saturday and Saturday night the lake response will gradually fall
apart from west to east as high pressure and drier air build across
our region. More specifically...lingering scattered snow showers
southeast of Lake Erie should break apart Saturday afternoon...with
weakened lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario producing some
additional minor accumulations Saturday...before spreading out along
the south shore of the lake and suffering a similar fate Saturday
night. Elsewhere conditions will just be mainly dry and colder...
with highs Saturday mainly between 25 and 30...and lows Saturday
night dipping into the teens south of Lake Ontario...and to the
single digits across the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
During this period a low amplitude flow will be in place across
the CONUS...with initial broad/flat troughing giving way to a
quasi-zonal flow by late in the period. This will result in
somewhat below average temperatures Sunday and Monday giving
way to near normal readings by midweek.

In terms of precipitation chances...it still appears that a weak
southern stream wave may slide across the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic States between late Sunday...Sunday night...and Monday...
while bringing a general chance for some light snow to areas south
of Lake Ontario. After that high pressure and mainly dry weather
should return for Monday night and Tuesday...before another (and
somewhat stronger) southern stream system possibly brings somewhat
better chances for some snow by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place across the majority of western and
north central New York this morning...as high pressure will nose
into the region from the Carolinas. The exception will be east of
Lake Ontario where accumulating lake snows will remain in place over
Oswego county. This will keep MVFR to IFR vsbys intact for sites
like KFZY.

As we push into the afternoon...residual lake snow showers will
taper off to flurries while ending north of the Tug Hill. This will
translate into VFR conditions for the entire region...with the
strato-cu cigs lifting to alto-cu for the bulk of the afternoon.

Tonight...clouds will gradually lower ahead of a warm front that
will pass over the region during the overnight hours. VFR cigs will
lower to MVFR levels after 06z...with the lowering cigs being
accompanied by rain and wet snow showers. The showers will become
more widespread after 09z when cigs will likely be at MVFR levels.

The deteriorating conditions tonight will be accompanied by a period
of low level wind shear...mainly over the Southern Tier.

Outlook...
Friday...Deterioration to MVFR/IFR in rain and snow showers.
Friday night...IFR in areas of lake effect snow east of the
lakes... otherwise MVFR/VFR.
Saturday...Lingering areas of lake effect snow/IFR southeast of
Lake Ontario...otherwise mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers south of Lake Ontario.
Monday...MVFR with a weak system moving across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
The axis of high pressure over the Lower Great Lakes early this
morning will push east across New England this afternoon and
evening. This has allowed for winds and waves to subside so
small craft advisories were dropped for the time.

As the ridge pushes east this afternoon and evening...light to
moderate winds will back to the southeast. Winds will then freshen
ahead of an approaching cold front overnight...with a new round of
small craft advisories possible north of Mexico Bay by daybreak
Friday.

Winds will further increase to near gale force on Friday in the wake
of a strong cold frontal passage. These winds will gradually subside
Friday night into Saturday...although small craft advisories will
likely be in place to start the weekend for the Lake Ontario
nearshore waters.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Fries/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 14, 10:03 AM EST, 2 hours 43 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1003 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-085-151515-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
1003 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

In the wake of a cold front southwesterly winds will increase
again on Friday...and could gust to 45 to 50 mph at times. Such
winds could down a few tree limbs and power lines...and may also
make travel more difficult for high profile vehicles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>006-008-013-014-020-021-151515-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
1003 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-151515-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1003 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

In the wake of a cold front...winds could increase to low-end
gale force on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-151515-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1003 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-151515-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1003 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-151515-
Jefferson-
1003 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another round of lake effect snow could bring several inches of
accumulation late Friday...Friday night...and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 14, 8:17 AM EST, 4 hours 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
817 AM EST THU FEB 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     SNOW             2 SW FORESTVILLE        42.45N  79.20W
02/13/2019  M3.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0400 AM     SNOW             1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE     43.58N  75.45W
02/14/2019  M15.0 INCH       LEWIS              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0516 AM     SNOW             HIGHMARKET              43.58N  75.52W
02/14/2019  M10.5 INCH       LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0600 AM     SNOW             2 SSW REDFIELD          43.50N  75.85W
02/14/2019  M10.0 INCH       OSWEGO             NY   SNOW SPOTTER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0611 AM     SNOW             3 ESE MACEDON           43.05N  77.26W
02/14/2019  M4.2 INCH        WAYNE              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0618 AM     SNOW             1 NNE FRANKLINVILLE     42.34N  78.45W
02/14/2019  M4.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0640 AM     SNOW             ESE KENMORE             42.96N  78.87W
02/14/2019  M4.2 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0654 AM     SNOW             BUFFALO AIRPORT         42.94N  78.74W
02/14/2019  M5.1 INCH        ERIE               NY   NWS OFFICE

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NNW SILVER SPRINGS    42.71N  78.09W
02/14/2019  M4.3 INCH        WYOMING            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             SSE ISCHUA              42.24N  78.40W
02/14/2019  M6.2 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 E OSCEOLA             43.50N  75.70W
02/14/2019  M8.0 INCH        LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA        42.94N  78.72W
02/14/2019  M5.1 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 N SILVER SPRINGS      42.71N  78.09W
02/14/2019  M4.3 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             ESE CLARENCE CENTER     43.01N  78.63W
02/14/2019  M4.4 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             WARSAW                  42.74N  78.14W
02/14/2019  M7.5 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 WNW ALDEN             42.90N  78.51W
02/14/2019  M3.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             LOWVILLE                43.80N  75.48W
02/14/2019  M5.0 INCH        LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             LITTLE VALLEY           42.25N  78.81W
02/14/2019  M7.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900844
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900845
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900846
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900847
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900848
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900849
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900850
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900851
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900852
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900853
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900854
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900855
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900856
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900857
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900858
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900859
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900860
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900861

JAM
Local storm report, Feb 14, 8:48 AM EST, 3 hours 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
848 AM EST THU FEB 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             3 W WYOMING             42.82N  78.15W
02/14/2019  M7.0 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900862

JAM
Local storm report, Feb 14, 9:11 AM EST, 3 hours 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
911 AM EST THU FEB 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             5 ESE OSWEGO            43.44N  76.41W
02/14/2019  M9.0 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 ENE JAMESTOWN         42.11N  79.16W
02/14/2019  M3.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 NW WILLIAMSVILLE      42.97N  78.75W
02/14/2019  M3.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             CATTARAUGUS             42.32N  78.87W
02/14/2019  M4.5 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0845 AM     SNOW             LIMA                    42.91N  77.61W
02/14/2019  M4.0 INCH        LIVINGSTON         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900863
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900864
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900865
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900866
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900867

JAM
Local storm report, Feb 14, 9:52 AM EST, 2 hours 54 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 AM EST THU FEB 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             3 N CELORON             42.16N  79.28W
02/14/2019  M4.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 E WILLIAMSVILLE       42.97N  78.69W
02/14/2019  M5.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             ENE WEST CARTHAGE       43.97N  75.62W
02/14/2019  M4.0 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             1 ENE RANDOLPH          42.17N  78.96W
02/14/2019  M5.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 NE PULASKI            43.57N  76.12W
02/14/2019  M7.5 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 E LE ROY              42.97N  77.97W
02/14/2019  M4.4 INCH        GENESEE            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900868
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900869
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900870
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900871
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900872
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900873

JAM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 13, 8:55 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFOswego95 min
Feb 13, 10:27 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFOswego93 min
Feb 14, 12:47 PM ESTGale WarningBUF30 hr
Feb 14, 12:47 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF42 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in New York, 2019Every wind advisory in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.