Alert archive / New York / Storm Watches in 2019

Storm Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 22, 2019

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this storm watch at Feb 22, 2019, 3:19 AM EST. It took effect at Feb 24, 2019, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 22, 2019, 3:19 AM EST (08:19 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 24, 2019, 10:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 23, 2019, 3:37 AM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

The text

As transmitted.

748 
WHUS71 KBUF 220819
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
319 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

LOZ045-221630-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190222T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1800Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
319 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Storm Watch,
which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

* WINDS...Southwest to 50 knots.

* WAVES...15 to 19 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-221630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190222T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
319 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Storm Watch,
which is in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 knots this morning. Southwest to 50 
  knots Sunday and Sunday night.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet this morning, then 16 to 21 feet Sunday and
  Sunday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-221630-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0005.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
319 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-221630-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
319 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Storm Watch,
which is in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ062>064-221630-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
319 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Storm Watch,
which is in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning.

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...18 to 23 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ065-221630-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1800Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
319 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Storm Watch,
which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...15 to 19 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
878 
WHUS71 KBUF 221105
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
605 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

LOZ042>044-221915-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-190222T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
605 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...Southwest to 50 knots.

* WAVES...16 to 21 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-221915-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
605 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-221915-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
605 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ062>064-221915-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
605 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...18 to 23 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ045-065-221915-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1800Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
605 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...15 to 19 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$
245 
WHUS71 KBUF 221829
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
129 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

LEZ020-LOZ030-230230-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
129 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-230230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
129 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-062>064-230230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
129 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...18 to 23 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ045-065-230230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1800Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
129 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...15 to 19 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$
087 
WHUS71 KBUF 222339
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
639 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

LEZ020-LOZ030-230930-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0005.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
639 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-230930-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
639 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-062>064-230930-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
639 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...18 to 23 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ045-065-230930-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1800Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
639 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...15 to 19 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

JJR
573 
WHUS71 KBUF 230837
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
337 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

LEZ020-LOZ030-231645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0005.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0007.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
337 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday.
The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-231645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SR.W.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
337 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Storm
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday.
The Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots are imminent or
occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take
shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should
prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and
consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds
and waves subside.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-062>064-231645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SR.W.0001.190224T1500Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
337 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Storm
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday.
The Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...West to 55 knots.

* WAVES...23 to 28 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots are imminent or
occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take
shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should
prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and
consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds
and waves subside.

&&

$$

LOZ045-065-231645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.SR.A.0001.190224T1800Z-190225T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SR.W.0001.190224T1800Z-190225T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
337 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Storm
Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday.
The Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...19 to 24 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots are imminent or
occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take
shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should
prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and
consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds
and waves subside.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm watch went out at Feb 22, 1:03 AM EST, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 22, 1:03 AM EST, 2 hours 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
103 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A few flurries or light snow showers will continue east and
southeast of Lake Ontario tonight. Otherwise high pressure will
build across the region through Friday night and bring several days
of dry weather. A strong storm system will then arrive this weekend,
with rain overspreading the region Saturday night. A powerful cold
front will then cross the region Sunday with more rain and
widespread damaging winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IR satellite imagery shows a mix of lower lake effect clouds and
high clouds across the region. Mostly cloudy skies will
continue to be the rule overnight as a weak cold front moves
southeast across the area, re-enforcing low level moisture and
the resulting low stratus. There are still some light snow
showers or flurries east of Lake Ontario early this morning,
with these likely to shift southeast of the lake from Oswego to
Wayne counties as the boundary layer flow becomes more WNW.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s on the lake plains, and around
20 across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

Surface high pressure and associated drier air will continue to
build into the region Friday, bringing fair weather and lighter
winds. However, a fair amount of cirrus is expected to stream
into the region along axis of 120kt jet separating the deep
trough over the western CONUS and anomalous upper ridge over the
Caribbean. Temperatures will be near average in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND LIKELY SUNDAY...

High pressure will move east of the area Friday night into Saturday
with return flow around it allowing for progressively moderating and
warming temperatures. As this occurs, the next system that will
affect the area moves toward the western Great Lakes, working to
increase the pressure gradient driven southerly flow. This allows
850 mb warm advection to reach a crescendo on Saturday night in
advance of the cold front associated with this system moving into
the area. Thus, by 12z Sunday, consensus 850 mb temperatures eclipse
+10C and even reach +12C on some guidance. Thus, non-diurnal
temperature rises are all but a given, yielding readings
precariously close to 60F across a vast swath of the lower portion
of the CWA early Sunday.

This all comes crashing down as a stunningly strong cold front rips
toward and through the area from Sunday morning onward. Model
guidance has been encouragingly consistent with the deepening,
timing, and track of this system. In fact, model clustering is
astoundingly tight for a d3-d3.5 forecast, and this only works to
increase confidence in a rather hazardous forecast for Sunday and
Sunday night.

Ahead of the system, rainfall really blossoms in warm advection,
however the apex of this seems to largely be north of the area, but
with the density discontinuity noted along the front vis-a-vis 850
mb temperature falls from +12C to -6C over a span of 12 hours on
Sunday, it would be rather amazing if it failed to rain along the
cold front, even with the best forcing to our north. That said, the
rainfall will not be the main event with this system. In its wake,
the occluding upper level low will drive a mid-level dry slot and
associated tropopause fold through the area from Sunday morning
onward. This is noted by a drastic drop of the dynamic tropopause
well below 700 mb across Lake Erie with an associated ribbon of
starkly drier air that penetrates down toward 800 mb signifying some
sort of stratospheric intrusion. That said, this will work to
essentially shove all atmospheric momentum below this level and
likewise allow for the development of a post-frontal 75+ knot low
level jet. The progression of this feature through the area is
utterly crushing both in terms of the synoptic features driving it
as well as the fact it will be coming through during a diurnally
favorable period of mixing out to the surface. Further, substantial
drying aloft due to the tropopause fold may yield a period of sun
concurrent with its passage. This would only further enhance the
mixing potential. That said, bufkit momentum transfer suggests in
excess of 60 kts (70+ mph) is possible along the Lake Erie shore,
through Buffalo, Rochester, and into Watertown. Even elsewhere,
where high wind gusts are far less frequent, very strong winds will
also be possible given this method. That said, a high wind watch was
issued for the entire area.

In concert with the high wind watch, and with a consideration to
damage from recent far less intense wind events, as well as rather
mobile ice on Lake Erie, lakeshore flood watches were issued for ice
damage along the shore and ice overtopping the ice boom into the
Niagara River. These effects will be enhanced by a likely lake
seiche, however the amplitude of this remains to be seen a bit as
guidance isn't really available at this time.

Behind the Sunday system, rapidly cooling conditions will favor a
changeover to upslope snow showers with a segue to a much colder
extended forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Windy conditions will continue into Monday as the powerful storm
system moves into the Canadian Maritimes. A very tight pressure
gradient will lead to northwest winds gusting to 40-45 mph through
Monday morning. Pressure rises will slow down Monday evening and
winds will finally settle down. Cold air advection will also be
occurring Monday and Monday night with 850 mb temperatures falling
to around -15 deg C by Monday evening. Northwest flow across the
Lakes will result in lake snows especially east/southeast of Lake
Ontario. Subsidence will be increasing during this time so minor
accumulations are possible.

Mostly zonal flow will persist across much of the north-central
CONUS mid-week. High pressure will move into the Great Lakes Monday
night and Tuesday. Models diverge from there with the 12z GFS
developing a weak system that tracks to the south. This may bring
accumulating snow to the area Tuesday night-Wednesday night. On the
contrary, the 12z ECMWF has high pressure across much of the Great
Lakes through mid-week. Very cold temperatures are also possible
into mid-week if the 12z ECMWF pans out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There will be a mix of high clouds and lake effect stratus
through 15Z. For the most part, the cloud bases of the stratus
will be just in the VFR category, but there will be areas below
3k feet across higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise
high pressure will bring fair weather to the eastern Great
Lakes with much lighter winds during the day Friday with lake
effect clouds eventually scattering out. Then VFR conditions
for tonight when high pressure moves across the region.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR lowering to MVFR in rain.
Sunday...MVFR or IFR with rain, then snow. Strong winds.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk southwesterly winds behind a cold front will slowly diminish
from west to east overnight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions on
Lake Ontario ending overnight and early Friday morning. High
pressure will then bring a period of light winds Friday through
early Saturday.

A powerful storm system will cut through the Central Great Lakes
Sunday and Sunday night. As this system rapidly deepens it will
produce at least gale force winds on the lakes, and possibly
even storm force.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
     NYZ001>003-007-010-011-019-085.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for NYZ004>006-008-012>014-020-021.
     Lakeshore Flood Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
     night for NYZ001-010-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Fries
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA/Apffel
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 21, 12:53 PM EST, 14 hours 26 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1253 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

NYZ002-003-011-221800-
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-
1253 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-010-019-085-221800-
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1253 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Watch.
   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-221800-
Wyoming-
1253 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-008-013-014-020-021-221800-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-
1253 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-221800-
Jefferson-
1253 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-221800-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1253 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A powerful storm system will pass to the west and north of the
region Sunday and Sunday night. It is becoming more likely that this
system will generate strong winds with gusts in excess of 60 knots
possible. Gale warnings or storm warnings may be necessary.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-221800-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1253 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 22, 3:19 AM ESTGale WatchBUF24 hr
Feb 22, 3:19 AM ESTHigh Wind WarningBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more3 days
Feb 22, 11:19 AM ESTLakeshore Flood WarningBUFChautauqua, Erie, Jefferson, Niagara, Oswego3 days

Nearby

Storm Watches in New York, 2019Every storm watch in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.