Alert archive / New York / Special Weather Statements in 2019

Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

October 1, 2019Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this special weather statement at Oct 1, 2019, 6:28 PM EDT for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It was in force for 62 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 1, 2019, 6:28 PM EDT (22:28 UTC)
Expired
Oct 1, 2019, 7:30 PM EDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-10-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 168 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-10-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 251 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
168 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-151 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1231 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
251 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
245 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 1, 6:08 PM EDT, 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 1, 6:08 PM EDT, 20 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 1, 5:01 AM EDT, 13 hours 27 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
501 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014-020915-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Northern Erie-
Genesee-Livingston-Ontario-
501 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop tonight
and continue through Wednesday. Some of the storms may produce
locally heavy rainfall, which may result in minor flooding in poor
drainage areas. Some storms may also contain gusty winds tonight
through early Wednesday morning. There is a marginal risk of a few
isolated storms with damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy rainfall,
which may result in minor flooding in poor drainage areas.

Much cooler air will move into the region late this week. Frost is
possible Friday night and early Saturday morning across much of the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019>021-085-020915-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
501 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop tonight
and continue through Wednesday. Some of the storms may produce
locally heavy rainfall, which may result in minor flooding in poor
drainage areas. Some storms may also contain gusty winds tonight
through early Wednesday morning. There is a marginal risk of a few
isolated storms with damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy rainfall,
which may result in minor flooding in poor drainage areas.

Much cooler air will move into the region late this week. Frost and
below freezing temperatures are possible Friday night and early
Saturday morning across much of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-020915-
Jefferson-Lewis-
501 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop late this
afternoon and continue through tonight. Some of the storms may
produce locally heavy rainfall, which may result in minor flooding in
poor drainage areas. Some storms may also contain gusty winds
late this afternoon through tonight. There is a marginal risk of a
few isolated storms with damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A brief window of partial clearing and the arrival of cooler air may
allow frost to develop late Wednesday night and early Thursday
morning.

Much cooler air will move into the region again late this week.
Frost and below freezing temperatures are possible Friday night and
early Saturday morning across much of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-020915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
501 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop tonight across the eastern Great
Lakes. A few of these storms may produce gusty winds and locally
higher waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue early Wednesday across the
eastern Great Lakes. A few of these storms may produce gusty winds
and locally higher waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 1, 4:30 PM EDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before
WWUS81 KBUF 000000 SPSBUF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
430 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

NYZ001-010-012130-
Niagara-Northern Erie-
430 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL ERIE AND
WESTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES...

At 429 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 27 miles west of
Fort Niagara State Park, or 30 miles northwest of Niagara Falls,
moving east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Niagara Falls, North Tonawanda, Lockport, Amherst, Tonawanda,
Williamsville, Grand Island, Newfane, Pendleton, Lewiston,
Youngstown, Fort Niagara State Park, Sanborn, Wilson, Cambria Center,
Olcott, Pendleton Center, Ransomville and Model City.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4339 7868 4297 7874 4303 7901 4306 7900
      4308 7908 4311 7906 4312 7907 4315 7904
      4325 7906 4330 7909
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 280DEG 43KT 4327 7960

JLA
Special weather statement, Oct 1, 5:49 PM EDT, 39 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Oct 1, 6:28 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 1, 5:35 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBUFJefferson, Lewis55 min
Oct 1, 7:15 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBUFJefferson45 min
Oct 1, 1:38 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningBUF22 min
Oct 1, 4:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBUFNiagara60 min
Oct 1, 4:32 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningBUF88 min
Oct 1, 4:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFErie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans60 min
Oct 1, 5:44 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningBUF61 min
Oct 1, 5:49 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBUFGenesee, Livingston, Monroe, Wyoming56 min
Oct 1, 6:36 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningBUF54 min
Oct 1, 6:54 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBUFCattaraugus66 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in New York, 2019Every special weather statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.