Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
425 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Frigid air will continue to pour across our area through tonight,
and not only help to generate significant lake effect snow east and
northeast of the lakes, but also support dangerously cold wind
chill values areawide. High pressure passing across the Mid
Atlantic region late in the week will then bring an end to the
glacial weather, as day to day temperatures will steadily climb
during the upcoming weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Winter Storm Warnings remain in place for areas east and northeast
of the lakes.

Radar imagery showing two lake bands off Lake Erie which have become
pretty much stationary during the overnight hours. One fairly narrow
band across the Buffalo Southtowns over to northern Wyoming county.
The other a broader band extending across Southern Erie/Wyoming
counties and into far northern portions of Chautauqua/Cattaraugus
counties. These snow bands are a bit weaker than what we saw
yesterday, but still likely producing snowfall rates of up to
an inch per hour. Winds speeds have come down a bit, but still
gusting to at least 30 mph, so near whiteout conditions
certainly still occurring in and around the lake bands this
morning.

We will start to see a northward drift to the lake snows by mid
morning or so, as the low level flow backs a bit, which is
already noticed upstream across the western Lake Erie basin. It
certainly looks as if the northern portion of the snow band will
move back into Buffalo metro area, but probably not much
farther north than the Buffalo Airport and Batavia.

Winds will diminish considerably tonight across Lake Erie, which
will cause lake effect snow to diminish as the night goes on. There
will be a shrinking, but still intense band will probably linger
near the lakeshore in southwestern Erie County for at least the
first half of the night.

Meanwhile off Lake Ontario, an intense band of lake snow currently
making its way south as the low level flow starts to turn more
westerly. Snowfall rates within this band exceeding 2 inches per
hour. This band will gradually settle across the Tug Hill
through mid morning, then remain nearly stationary through the
day Thursday. Plenty of deep moisture, a multi-lake connection,
the long fetch along the long axis of the lake and favorable
orographics will lead to feet of snow across Jefferson, Lewis
and northern Oswego counties, with the heaviest accumulations
focused across the Tug Hill. Winds will be a bit stronger across
Lake Ontario, which will maintain heavy lake effect snow for
much of the night tonight.

Otherwise, wind chill warnings remain in place with dangerously
cold temperatures and wind chills continuing through the day
today. Wind chill values 40 below to 20 below zero are expected
as westerly winds continue, the coldest wind chills will be
across the western Southern Tier. Wind speeds will lower
tonight, therefore wind chill values will not be as harsh, but
still 15 below to 25 below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
This time frame will be characterized by a trend of pronounced day
to day warming. Temperatures that will average 15 degrees BELOW
normal at the start of the period will end up roughly 10 degrees
ABOVE normal by the end of the weekend. The details...

An area of modifying arctic high pressure will be centered over
Pennsylvania as we open this period on Friday. While the large scale
subsidence associated with this feature will promote fair weather
for the bulk of our forecast area...there will still be some lake
snow to deal with...particularly east of Lake Ontario. A 280 flow of
-20c H85 air will keep the lake snow machine churning for sites near
the Tug Hill...but as the day progresses...the low level steering
flow will back to about 230. This will send the weakening lake snows
northwards to between Watertown and the Thousand Islands region. A
limiting cap under 5k ft will keep a lid on any significant
additional snow accumulations...with fresh amounts generally under
two inches. There will also be the chance for a very limited lake
response near Grand Island and eastern Niagara county in the morning
where a 220 flow with a very low cap will be in place. Otherwise...
after two days of single digit max temperatures...the mercury will
struggle into the teens. This will still be a solid 15 deg below
normal.

The remnants of the surface high will drift southeast across the
Delmarva Peninsula Friday night...while a broad H5 ridge over the
nations mid section will gradually build over the Great Lakes
region. The combination will intensify a baroclinic zone that
will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to New York state. A 50kt low
level jet impinging upon this steepening boundary will generate some
snow showers in the moderately strong warm advection flow.
Fortunately the bulk of this over-running will be found north of our
forecast area...but we will still have to carry chance pops for Lake
Ontario and the North Country. The remainder of the region should
only experience an increase in clouds.

Solid warm advection will continue across our forecast area on
Saturday...as the once arctic high will act as a heat pump over the
Carolinas by circulating milder air into our region from the Mid
West. The warm advection will be aided by the aforementioned 50kt
low level jet...which will provide enough lift to keep most of the
region shrouded under a wealth of clouds. There may even be some
snow showers around...particularly across the North Country in the
vcnty of the more pronounced baroclinic zone. A weak cold front
stalling over our region in the afternoon and evening could provide
just enough low level convergence for some nuisance snow showers
elsewhere. Again..the theme of the day will be less cold as the
mercury will climb to within a few degrees of freezing over the
western counties and into the mid and upper 20s east of Lk Ontario.

An amplifying mid level ridge over the Ohio Valley and Upper Great
Lakes will push the stalled frontal boundary back to the north late
Saturday night and Sunday. This should be enough to warrant chance
pops for some mixed precipitation over the western counties...and
likely pops for the North Country. The bulk of Sunday afternoon
should be dry and uneventful though for the western counties.
Temperatures will top out around 40 in the west...and in the mid 30s
for most of the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

While most of western New York will be deep enough in the warm
sector to encourage dry weather Sunday night...there will still be
the chance for some mixed precipitation near and east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Temperatures will average solidly above normal throughout this
forecast period...as the displacement of the polar vortex to the
Labrador Sea will allow broad ridging to become established over
the eastern half of the Lower 48. As for the day to day details...

A progressive H5 ridge will move from the Lower Great Lakes to New
England on Monday...while a sub 995mb cyclone will track across Lake
Superior. This will set up a strong southerly flow over our region
with H85 forecast to climb to around 8c. While there will be a fair
amount of cloud cover...most sites across western New York should be
able to reach the 50 deg f mark while readings east of Lake Ontario
will be in the mid to upper 40s. Less confidence is expressed in the
pops for Monday..which will largely determined by the speed of a
Pacific based cool front. While many of the GEFS ensembles suggest a
faster passage...the more trusted ECMWF does not depict nearly as
strong a feature. Will thus use a range of chc pops across the
region with a higher chc of rain showers being found west of the
Finger Lakes.

There is notably stronger consensus with the passage of a cold front
Monday night. Will carry the likely pops from continuity for more
rain showers...although rainfall amounts should not be significant.

As the parent mid level trough races across our region on Tuesday...
expansive high pressure based over the northern reaches of Ontario
and Manitoba will nose southwards across the Great lakes region.
This should provide fair dry weather for the far western counties
with only chc pops for residual frontal based showers found further
to the east.

After dry weather Tuesday night...a storm system will likely track
out of the Ohio Valley towards our forecast area later Wednesday and
Wednesday night. The various ensembles have solutions that range
from an organized area of low pressure that would take aim on our
region...to an inverted trough that would include several sfc waves.
The latter would favor a longer duration event with higher rainfall
amounts...potentially problematic given our antecedent conditions.
Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ongoing lake effect snows east and northeast of the lakes will shift
a bit more southward overnight, with the Lake Erie Lake snows
remaining south of KBUF and the Lake Ontario snows impacting
KART with heavy snow, blowing snow and visibility 1/4 SM or less
through about 10/11z before settling south of KART into the Tug
Hill.

On Thursday, the Lake Erie lake snows will shift a bit back
northward toward KBUF, though may remain just south of the airport.
Meanwhile the Lake Ontario lake snows will largely remain across the
Tug Hill region, with the northern edge still affecting KART through
a good portion of the day.

Expect VLIFR to IFR conditions to prevail within the lake snows,
with a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions predominant elsewhere.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...diminishing lake effect snows east and
northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Saturday...A chance of snow showers/MVFR southeast of Lake Ontario,
otherwise VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of mixed precipitation.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to pull northward across Quebec Province
and away from our region today. This will maintain gale fore winds
on lake Ontario through today, while winds subside to just below
gale force on lake Erie. Heavy freezing spray will also develop
given the very cold temperatures.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A period of rain will most likely bring between a half an inch
to inch of rain to the area. This combined with snow melt due to
warm temperatures will pose a risk for flooding. The greatest
risk is for ice jams, however the combination of snow melt and
rain can also cause general flooding depending on rainfall
amounts. The risk for flooding will be greatest during the
Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Several surges of arctic air producing bands of lake effect
snow to close out the month of January may bring daily records
for both temperatures and snowfall. Below are the record low
maximum, low minimum and daily record snow for our three primary
climate stations.

Buffalo:

	Date			Low Maximum		Low Minimum 	Daily Snow

	Wednesday 1/30	8/1948			-3/2003			11.6/1966
	Thursday 1/31	5/1920			-11/1920		5.5/1982

Rochester:

	Date

	Wednesday 1/30	5/1908			-12/1873		18.0/1966
	Thursday 1/31	3/1920			-10/1994		11.7/1878

Watertown:

	Date

	Wednesday 1/30	7/2010			-24/2010
	Thursday 1/31	6/1973			-23/2011

In addition Buffalo will finish the month of January
within the top 10 snowiest on record. Currently through
January 27th the snow total for the month is: 42.4 inches.
Below is a partial list of the top 10 snowiest months of
January on record.

	Rank	 Amount (in)	Year

	1		68.3		  1977
	2		65.9		  1985
	3		65.1		  1999
    4		56.5		  1978
	5		53.2		  1982
	..
	10		42.6		  1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Chill Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ013.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST this evening
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR/JJR/TMA
MARINE...HSK/JJR/TMA/Zaff
HYDROLOGY...JJR/Apffel
CLIMATE...Thomas

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