Small Craft Advisory 58, NWS Buffalo, NY

585 
WHUS71 KBUF 231306
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
906 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

LEZ040-041-232100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.190523T1600Z-190524T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
906 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-232100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.190523T1600Z-190524T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
906 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-232100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.190523T1800Z-190524T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
906 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-232100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.190523T1800Z-190524T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
906 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-232100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.190524T0300Z-190524T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
906 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

903 
WHUS71 KBUF 231744
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

LEZ040-041-240300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
144 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-240300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
144 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-240300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.190523T1800Z-190524T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
144 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-240300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.190523T1800Z-190524T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
144 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-240300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.190524T0300Z-190524T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
144 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

077 
WHUS71 KBUF 240014
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
814 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

LEZ040-041-240300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
814 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-240300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
814 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-240600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
814 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-240815-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.190524T0300Z-190524T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
814 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-240815-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
814 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

500 
WHUS71 KBUF 240240
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1040 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

LOZ042-240345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1040 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

$$

LEZ020-240345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1040 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

$$

LEZ040-041-240700-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T0700Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1040 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-241045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.190524T0300Z-190524T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1040 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-241045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1040 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

633 
WHUS71 KBUF 240754
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
354 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

LOZ043-044-241500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
354 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

674 
WHUS71 KBUF 241429
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1029 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

LOZ043-044-241530-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-190524T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1029 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves will continue to decrease through the afternoon.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
209 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and strong thunderstorms will increase in coverage area
across the region today, ahead of a cold front that will sweep
across the area later this afternoon and early evening. Warm and
humid conditions today will be replaced by cooler, and less humid
conditions for Friday...in generally rain free weather. The next
weather system will bring more showers Friday night to our area,
with showers and thunderstorms again passing over the area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Initial round of showers have passed across our region this early
morning, with now a brief clearing trend developing. Light southerly
winds will continue through the remainder of tonight.

Given the overall warm advection regime...lows tonight will be
substantially warmer than those of the past couple of nights... with
minimum temperatures ranging from the lower 50s across the North
Country to near 60 along the Lake Erie shoreline.

On Thursday the warm front and any isolated attendant showers/storms
will finish pushing across our area during the morning...and may be
followed by a brief relative lull for a few hours. After that time...
the combination of diurnal heating/destabilization of an increasingly
warm and more humid airmass within the warm sector...increasing height
falls aloft...and the approach of a prefrontal trough should lead to
renewed convective development by late morning or midday...with this
initially developing and focusing to the southeast of the stabilizing
influence of Lake Erie...before growing/pushing northeast across the
Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes and into the North Country during the early
to mid afternoon hours...with the bulk of this then sliding east of our
region late. Given the combination of favorable moisture...lift...and
instability that is expected...have further increased PoPs associated
with this round of convection to the lower end of the categorical range.

With respect to the potential for strong to severe storms...a
strengthening westerly flow regime aloft will lead to copious amounts
of shear areawide...with 0-6 km bulk shear values of at least 50 knots
expected...and some the short term guidance suggesting that this could
reach as high as 60-70 knots. With respect to instability...diurnal
destabilization out ahead of the prefrontal trough is currently projected
to lead to the MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg in those areas south of
Lake Ontario away from stabilizing lake influences...with localized
pockets of 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Such a combination of shear and
instability should lead to the development of increasingly organized
convection and an attendant risk for all forms of severe weather.
Of these...damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary
threats by far...though the amount of available shear and low LCL
heights would also be supportive of a small...but nonzero risk for
a tornado. Given all this...the current Slight Risk of severe storms
advertised in SPC's Day 2 Convective Outlook looks very reasonable...
particularly from the Southern Tier eastward across the Finger Lakes
where the shear-instability parameter space appears most favorable.

Behind the prefrontal trough and its attendant convection...increasing
drying and subsidence will make for a much less favorable environment
for additional convection...and as such would expect the trailing cold
front (as is so commonly the case for our area) to produce little
more than some isolated to scattered showers as it works into far
western New York late in the day. The bigger story in the wake of
the prefrontal trough will actually be a brief but notable period of
stronger southwesterly to westerly winds downwind of Lake Erie...where
downward transport of higher momentum air from aloft should lead to a
round of 15-30 mph sustained winds along with gusts to 40-45 mph during
the early to mid afternoon hours...with these then quickly subsiding
as we head toward evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The forcing responsible for the active weather Thursday afternoon
will quickly exit our region Thursday evening...as a 45-50kt low
level jet and deep moisture profile ahead of a cold front will make
its way across New England. While there may be some leftover showers
and thunderstorms early in the evening due to the actual cold
frontal passage...the trend will definitely be for benign weather
with dying convection rapidly giving way to partial clearing. In
fact...all of the forecast area should be precipitation free by
midnight. Meanwhile...the somewhat muggy conditions (dew points in
the 60s) will be replaced by a more comfortable Canadian airmass
with Tds falling back into the low 50s by daybreak.

Ridging at all levels will build across the Lower Great Lakes on
Friday. The strong subsidence provided by the ridge and the
proximity of being under the right front exit region of a 150kt H25
jet will nearly guarantee dry weather with abundant sunshine. It
will be notably cooler (by more than 10 deg f) than Thursday
though...as a Canadian airmass with single digit H85 temps will only
allow afternoon mercury readings to be in the mid to upper 60s.

While the bulk of Friday night will be rain free in most areas...a
baroclinic zone will become established over the Great Lakes region
courtesy of a broad storm system over the Upper Lakes and exiting
high pressure to our east. In fact...the forecast pops will be a
little higher than those advertised by many of the guidance
packages. Just cannot trust a warm front...or in this case...the
semblance of one.

Saturday will be rather unsettled across our region. The
aforementioned warm front will press northwards across the region
during the first half of the day...then a pre frontal trough will
make its way through during the afternoon. Much like the convective
environment from Thursday...sfc based instability will be
unimpressive to the tune of 500-1000 j/kg while a 45kt low level jet
will set the stage for 40-45kts of deep layer shear. This will
encourage any convection to become strong to severe...especially
inland from the influences of a well established lake breeze off Lk
Erie. Have added a little enhanced wording to the package by
mentioning gusty winds with the likely convection. Also like
Thursday...it will be warm and humid ahead of the pre frontal trough
and subsequent cold front...with max temps of 75 to 80 over the
western counties where dew points will also be in the 60s.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage...a large sfc high will
gradually build across the forecast area during the day Sunday.
While this should support fair weather to end the weekend...there is
a fairly wide variance in solutions for this period...including the
risk that the cold front will stall near or just south of the
Southern Tier. This would lend itself to a much more unsettled day
if it were to verify. Will compromise for now with low chc pops near
the Pennsylvania border.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A bubble of high pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes
Monday and potentially bring a brief break between rain chances with
a mainly dry day. A warm front will move northeast across the
eastern Great Lakes Monday night with a chance of a few showers.

Tuesday through Wednesday the longwave trough will re-focus across
the Northern Plains, forcing downstream height rises across the
eastern United States. This will allow warmer and somewhat more
humid air to move back into the Ohio Valley and New England. Model
guidance has shown some run to run variability with the synoptic
scale details during this time period. In a general sense, one or
two low pressure systems will move through the Great Lakes later
Tuesday through Wednesday. These systems will bring an increase in
large scale forcing and a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
at times. High temperatures will move back into the 70s at least,
and possibly 80s if some of the warmer model guidance verifies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found across the region,
with initial round of shower now to our east. The next round of
showers, and potential for stronger thunderstorms will arrive late
this morning and afternoon. The early timing of the cold front to
the west may limit the amount of thunderstorms across eastern TAF
sites, but farther to the east...greater daytime instability may
yield thunderstorms for KROC and KART...that may also produce strong
wind gusts. Timing for thunderstorms will be between 15Z and 21Z.

Behind the storms a cold front will sweep across the region. Wind
gusts this afternoon may near 35 or greater knots for KBUF/KIAG and
KROC. Cold air advection behind the front will continue breezy
westerly winds tonight. Lingering moisture will also lead to the
formation of a deck of MVFR range stratus across much of the TAF
region by the end of Friday night.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR. A chance of showers Friday night.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms. Some storms could again produce gusty winds.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure draped across New York State will drift eastward into
New England this afternoon...while low pressure advances across
Minnesota. In between these two systems a moderate easterly flow will
continue across the Lower Great Lakes...though the strongest winds
and greatest wave action will remain confined to the open waters
of Lake Ontario. Winds will then turn southerly tonight and Thursday
morning as a warm front pushes across our region.

On Thursday southwesterly winds will increase within the warm sector
of a storm system...with winds likely to reach small craft criteria on
Lake Erie...and possibly the western half of Lake Ontario.

A cold front will then cross the Lower Great Lakes late Thursday and
Thursday night...with brisk westerly winds behind this feature leading
to the continued possibility of advisory-level conditions on portions
of both lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Fries/JJR/Thomas
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
345 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-231945-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
345 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday from late
morning through late afternoon. A few storms may contain damaging
winds and large hail.

Southwest winds may also gust to 45 mph Thursday afternoon northeast
of Lake Erie.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Thursday.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-013-014-020-021-231945-
Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
345 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday from late
morning through late afternoon. A few storms may contain damaging
winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Thursday.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-231945-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
345 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday from late
morning through late afternoon. A few storms may contain damaging
winds and large hail.

West winds will increase behind a cold front late Thursday night and
Friday morning. The increasing winds and building wave action may
bring an increase in lakeshore flooding and erosion along the Lake
Ontario shore.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Thursday.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-231945-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
345 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday from late
morning through late afternoon. A few storms may contain strong
winds, locally higher waves, and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Thursday.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock