Small Craft Advisory 47, NWS Buffalo, NY

425 
WHUS71 KBUF 231432
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1032 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

LEZ040-041-232245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.190423T1500Z-190424T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1032 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-232245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.190423T1500Z-190424T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1032 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-232245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.190423T2000Z-190424T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1032 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-232245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.190423T2300Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1032 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-232245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.190424T0100Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1032 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

573 
WHUS71 KBUF 232004
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
404 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

LEZ040-041-240000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190424T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
404 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-240000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190424T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
404 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-240415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190424T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
404 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-240415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.190423T2300Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
404 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-240415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.190424T0100Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
404 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

717 
WHUS71 KBUF 232315
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
715 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

LEZ020-240015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190424T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
715 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

$$

LEZ040-041-240200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190424T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
715 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-240715-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.190423T2315Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
715 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-240715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190424T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
715 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-240715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
715 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

592 
WHUS71 KBUF 240201
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1001 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

LEZ040-041-240315-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190424T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1001 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have dropped below criteria.

$$

LOZ042-241015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190424T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1001 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-241015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1001 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-241015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1001 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

641 
WHUS71 KBUF 240750
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
350 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

LOZ042-241600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190424T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
350 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-241600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
350 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-241600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
350 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

685 
WHUS71 KBUF 241434
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1034 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

LOZ042-242100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190424T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1034 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-242245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1034 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-242245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190425T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1034 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

668 
WHUS71 KBUF 242021
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
421 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

LOZ042-242130-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190424T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
421 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

$$

LOZ043-044-250200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190425T0200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
421 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-250200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190425T0200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
421 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

885 
WHUS71 KBUF 250155
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
955 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

LOZ043-044-250300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190425T0200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
955 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Winds and waves have dropped below criteria.

$$

LOZ045-250300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-190425T0200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
955 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Winds and waves have dropped below criteria.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
347 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon and evening with
showers and possibly a few widely scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures will warm to well above average prior to the arrival of
rain on gusty southwest winds today. A few scattered showers may
continue later tonight and Wednesday east of Lake Ontario, otherwise
the rest of the area will see a return to dry weather and cooler
temperatures behind the cold front. Dry weather will continue
through Thursday before the next system brings rain back to the
region Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Patches of mid level clouds will continue to cross the region early
this morning, with a decent amount of sunshine to start the day. Mid
level clouds will then thicken from west to east from mid morning
through early afternoon as warm advection and moisture transport
increases downstream of the next trough.

Surface low pressure will track from northern Lower Michigan this
morning to southwest Quebec by this evening. A pre-frontal trough
will enter Western NY this afternoon, with the actual surface cold
front crossing the area this evening. Large scale forcing will
increase today ahead of the associated mid level trough, with DPVA
and height falls spreading east across the eastern Great Lakes.
Convergence will increase along a pair of pre-frontal troughs
forecast to cross the region, and these will act as the primary foci
for shower development. The first of the showers may enter Western
NY as early as midday, with better coverage developing by mid
afternoon across Western NY, then spreading east across the Genesee
Valley late afternoon, and to the eastern Lake Ontario region by
early evening.

Just enough instability may develop this afternoon and early evening
to support a few widely scattered thunderstorms, though the latest
CAMS guidance is lackluster on thunder potential. Any storms that do
develop will be weak given the very marginal instability. For most
of the area rainfall amounts will be light, generally less than a
quarter inch. The one exception may be east of Lake Ontario, where a
consensus of the GFS/NAM/HREF suggest 0.25-0.50" of rain from the
best juxtaposition of forcing, moisture, and diurnal instability.

Warm advection ahead of the system will allow temperatures to
briefly surge to well above average today. Expect highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s across Western NY, and mid 70s from the Genesee
Valley eastward. Temperatures will drop in Western NY this afternoon
once the steadier showers arrive, and also due to winds veering to
the southwest and spreading Lake Erie cooling into the area. It will
become quite breezy this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 knots in most
areas, and 30-35 knots from the Niagara Frontier to near Rochester.

Most of the showers will quickly end from west to east this evening
following the passage of the cold front. A few wrap around/upslope
showers may linger overnight east of Lake Ontario, otherwise the
rest of the area will become dry. Low stratus will likely hold
strong most of the time as low level moisture becomes trapped
beneath a steepening inversion. Temperatures will drop back into the
low to mid 40s by daybreak Wednesday, with upper 30s for higher
terrain. It will remain breezy overnight with gusts of 20-25 knots
in most areas, and over 30 knots along the Lake Ontario shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low over Quebec Canada will gradually track east into
New England on Wednesday. In its wake, quite and dry weather will
commence as ridging builds in at all levels into the Empire State
over the course of the day. There will also be a brisk NW'erly flow
as a fairly tight surface graident reside across the eastern Great
Lakes which will gradually relax as the aforementioned low pulls
further away from the region. Otherwise, with lingering low level
moisture in the the lower boundary layer look for a fair amount of
diurnally driven cloud cover the first half of the day. Of which,
the greatest coverage will likely be found over the North Country
where there will be a continued chance of a few showers. As the day
progresses, sunshine should eventually win out especially across far
Western NY. It will also be noticeably cooler(10F to 15F)with H850T
ranging from +2C to -1C which will support highs in the 50s to near
60F.

Wednesday night, any residual diurnally driven cloud cover will
quickly dissipate with the loss of insolation. With surface high
pressure continuing to build in over the area mainly clear skies
will rule the overnight hours. This combined with lighter wind flow
should allow temperatures to fall back into the 30s, with a few
locations nearing the freezing mark. Thursday, surface high pressure
will maintain dry conditions as it slowly exit to our east off the
Mid-Atlantic coast. After a chilly start temperatures should rebound
nicely into the 60s.

Thursday night and Friday, there is the potential for it to turn
progressively wet as several waves are forecast to ride up along a
returning frontal boundary and then phase with an upstream
shortwave. Although, there still remains a bit of uncertainty when
and where these two system phase, if at all. This has been factored
into the forecast with POP's held in check. Highs on Friday will be
right near there climatological norms for this time of year. Friday
night, a gradual decline in shower activity will occur from west to
east as the upstream shortwave kicks its front east of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A negatively tilted mid level trough over New England Saturday
morning will then slowly push north across the St Lawrence Valley
and Quebec Saturday afternoon and night. This will allow low level
ridging to build across our forecast area so that improving
conditions can be anticipated.

Unfortunately...the various guidance packages significantly diverge
for the second half of the weekend into the start of the work week.
While the ECMWF and its associated ensembles favor ridging over our
region through at least Monday morning...HPC guidance leans more
towards the GEFS ensembles which suggest another sfc low moving
through. Will maintain low chc pops as a result to avoid flip
flopping...but confidence in this portion of the package is low to
put it mildly. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patches of mid level clouds will continue to cross the region early
this morning. The mid level clouds will grow more dense later this
morning as warm advection and moisture continue to spread over the
eastern Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough and cold front will then
cross the area this afternoon and evening, bringing a few brief
periods of showers. VSBY may briefly drop to MVFR in the heavier
showers, with VFR prevailing most of the time. Some patchy fog and
local IFR may develop over and northeast of the lakes this afternoon
and evening as moist air crosses the cold lake water and/or ice.

CIGS will initially be VFR as the rain arrives. MVFR CIGS will
become more widespread along and behind the cold front late in the
afternoon as a layer of low level moisture becomes trapped beneath a
frontal inversion. It will become windy this afternoon and evening,
with gusts of 20-25 knots across much of the region and 30-35 knots
northeast of Lake Erie, including KBUF, KIAG, and KROC.

The showers will end from west to east early this evening. MVFR CIGS
will linger overnight behind the front. A few additional showers may
cross the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight associated with the
mid level trough. It will remain windy tonight with gusts of around
25 knots common across the area, and over 30 knots along the Lake
Ontario shore.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers east of Lake Ontario in
the morning.
Thursday...VFR.
Thursday night and Friday...MVFR with showers likely.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface low will track from the central Great Lakes this morning
to southern Quebec tonight, with a trailing cold front crossing the
eastern Great Lakes this evening. Southwest winds will increase
ahead of this system today, bringing Small Craft conditions by this
afternoon to Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario.

Following the cold front, the strongest westerly winds will focus on
Lake Ontario, with higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions
tonight and Wednesday. Winds and waves will diminish Wednesday
evening as the pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern Great
Lakes.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KBUF WSR-88D radar will be down most of this week for a
scheduled upgrade. The outage is planned to last through Friday
April 26.

During the upgrade, the transmitter will be refurbished including
the installation of new fuses and cables. Some of the components
being replaced are original to the radar, which is now over 20 years
old. The transmitter refurbishment is the second major project of
the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program, a series of upgrades and
replacements that will keep our nation's radars viable into the
2030's.

This is the second project in the NEXRAD Service Life Extension
Program. The first was the installation of a new signal processor.
The last two phases of the project are the refurbishment of the
pedestal, and refurbishment of equipment shelters. All phases are
expected to be complete in 2022.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
         evening for LEZ020-040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM
         EDT Wednesday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
         Wednesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
         Wednesday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR/TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
EQUIPMENT...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
356 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-230800-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
356 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-230800-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
356 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf