Small Craft Advisory 45, NWS Buffalo, NY

240 
WHUS71 KBUF 172054
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
454 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

LEZ040-041-180500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.190418T0300Z-190419T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
454 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 3 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-180500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.190418T0800Z-190419T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
454 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 3 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-180500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.190418T0800Z-190419T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
454 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO
2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

461 
WHUS71 KBUF 172345
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
745 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

LOZ043-044-180745-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.190418T0000Z-190419T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
745 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 3 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-180745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.190418T0300Z-190419T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
745 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 3 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-180745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.190418T0800Z-190419T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
745 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO
2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

200 
WHUS71 KBUF 180232
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

LEZ040-041-181045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.190418T0300Z-190419T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 3 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-181045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 3 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-181045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.190418T0800Z-190419T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO
2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

611 
WHUS71 KBUF 180853
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
453 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

LEZ040-041-181700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
453 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-181700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
453 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-181700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
453 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...South 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

640 
WHUS71 KBUF 181421
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1021 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

LOZ043-182100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190418T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1021 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-182200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1021 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-182200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1021 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-182200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1021 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

029 
WHUS71 KBUF 182035
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
435 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

LOZ043-182145-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190418T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
435 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...


$$

LEZ040-041-190000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
435 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...1 to 3 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-190300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
435 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 3 feet but notably higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-190445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
435 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

059 
WHUS71 KBUF 182049
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
449 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

LOZ043-190300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
449 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 3 feet but notably higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LEZ040-041-190000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
449 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...1 to 3 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-190300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
449 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 3 feet but notably higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-190500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
449 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet but higher well offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

012 
WHUS71 KBUF 182319
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
719 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

LEZ040-041-190030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
719 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

$$

LOZ043-044-190030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
719 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

$$

LOZ045-190600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
719 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

344 
WHUS71 KBUF 190243
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1043 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

LOZ045-190600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1043 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

965 
WHUS71 KBUF 190531
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
131 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

LOZ045-190645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-190419T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
131 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1037 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure just to the north of the area will bring dry weather
today. A warm front will move northeast across the region tonight
and early Thursday with a period of showers. It will turn breezy and
much warmer Thursday following the passage of the warm front.
Low pressure will then slowly cross the region Friday through Friday
night with showers and a chance of a few thunderstorms and locally
heavy rainfall. Unsettled weather will continue over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak high pressure is building from eastern Ontario into western
Quebec, which has assisted in pushing a weak frontal boundary
through the southern fringes of our area and into Ohio and PA. All
shower activity is now relegated to Ohio and PA, and given the
frontal trajectory, it should stay there through early this evening.

This will leave us in the wake of the front with drying and
subsidence aloft providing a good deal of sunshine for most of the
area. The one exception will be across the higher terrain from
Southern Erie and southern Wyoming counties southward into the
Southern Tier. Low stratus and some hilltop fog will continue
through at least early afternoon before slowly improving later in
the day. Otherwise for the rest of the area the fog from early this
morning has dissipated.

High temperatures will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in most
areas today. It will stay notably cooler across the higher terrain
of the Southern Tier where low stratus persists. A northeast breeze
will also keep the south shore of Lake Ontario much cooler.

The front that will have slipped south of us looks set to run back
toward the area tonight as a wave along the front reinvigorates warm
advection across the front and starts to lift it back into and
through our area. This will result in a band of rain along the warm
front as it pushes NE through the area overnight. In its wake,
temperatures are set to catapult upward late tonight into Thursday
and into the short term period of the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Warm sector will overspread western and north central New York
Thursday, as the warm front exits the eastern Lake Ontario region
Thursday morning. Any remaining showers will push out of the area
during the morning. This will be followed by dry, but breezy
conditions through the remainder of the day. A surge of warm air
within the warm sector will allow temperatures to soar into the 70s
across Western New York, possibly flirting with 80F in a few spots,
and 60s for the eastern Lake Ontario region. A south wind will keep
the bulk of the cooling influence from the lakes on Canadian shores.

A more amplified pattern developing Thursday night into Friday
across the eastern CONUS with a slow moving frontal boundary
approaching the region. Deep southerly flow will start to advect
plentiful moisture northward into our region as the upper trough
takes on a more negative tilt and begins to draw in Atlantic and
Gulf moisture. A few showers may sneak into the region Thursday
night, but for the most part the more organized and potentially
heavy rainfall will hold off until Friday and Friday night.

Friday and Friday night, a deep upper trough will extend from the
western Great Lakes southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico,
while a broad area of low pressure will shift from the Ohio Valley
Friday into the Appalachians Friday night. As a result, an
anomalously moist airmass will engulf the region with precipitable
water values near record values for the month of April near 1.50
inches. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance all in consensus
with the potential for 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rainfall areawide
Friday through Friday night, with some locally higher amounts
possible as well. The heaviest rainfall amounts are expected to
focus east of the Finger Lakes into the North Country. This system
and its rainfall will need to be monitored closely for the potential
for flooding, especially across the North Country where rivers are
currently running high.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cutoff low over the southeast States Friday night will quickly
become progressive as it is captured by the westerlies again, with
the closed low moving NNE along or just west of the Appalachians.
The axis of deep moisture transport and potential heavy rain will
move east of the area Saturday as the closed low approaches. This
will leave more diffuse moisture and weaker forcing as the upper low
moves overhead. This will result in unsettled weather with showers
at times through the weekend, but rainfall amounts will be in the
light side. Temperatures will gradually cool over the weekend as the
upper level low crosses our region and temperatures aloft cool.

The upper low will open up and move out of the area later Sunday,
with a brief mainly dry period Sunday night. Model guidance begins
to diverge with the synoptic scale details by early next week as an
east/west frontal zone sets up in the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley.
This feature will bring a chance of showers back into the forecast
for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be greatly dependent on
which side of the east/west boundary we end up on. The 12Z GFS would
suggest a warm-up Monday followed by cooler temperatures Tuesday as
the boundary slips south of NY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather will prevail through early evening. Most areas have
returned to VFR following the early morning fog. The one exception
is across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier where the
fog has evolved into a layer of low stratus and some lingering
hilltop fog. This will continue to bring IFR conditions through 18Z-
20Z before slow improvement thereafter.

A warm front will move northeast across the area tonight with a
period of showers. This will produce areas of MVFR, with MVFR most
prevalent across higher terrain.

Outlook...

Thursday...Some rain showers/MVFR likely across the North Country
early...otherwise VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR in showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR with showers likely.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Through today our region will remain on the cool side of a slowly
meandering frontal boundary. While this will generally result in
winds and waves remaining below advisory criteria... far western
portions of Lake Ontario could see a brief period of moderate
easterly flow and near-advisory conditions this afternoon into early
this evening.

tonight a warm front will push northeastward across the Lower Great
Lakes. In its wake a period of moderately brisk southeasterlies and
southerlies will develop later tonight and Thursday. While such a
flow regime will direct the greatest wave action across Canadian
waters...winds could still reach lower-end advisory levels across
eastern Lake Erie and especially eastern Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Fries/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Fries/Hitchcock
MARINE...Fries/Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
501 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-180915-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Southern Erie-
501 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-180915-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
501 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-180915-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
501 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will move through the area
Friday into Saturday. There is the potential for locally heavy rain
which will bring an increased risk for flooding. This includes the
Black River and its tributaries.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-180915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
501 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
750 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

NYZ003-004-012>014-020-021-085-171400-
Monroe-Wayne-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Warsaw, Geneseo,
Canandaigua, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
750 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...

Areas of fog will continue through mid morning across portions of
the Southern Tier, southern Erie and Wyoming counties, the western
Finger Lakes and Genesee Valley. This includes portions of the
Rochester area. Visibility will be reduced to less than a quarter
mile at times, including I-390 from Rochester to Dansville, I-86,
and the New York Thruway between Leroy and Geneva. The fog is
expected to burn off by around 10 AM.

NYZ007-171400-
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
750 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...

An area of fog will continue through mid morning across northern
Jefferson County. The fog will be most prevalent from Cape Vincent
to the Thousand Islands region. Visibility will be reduced to a
quarter mile or less at times. This includes the northern end of
I-81 from near Watertown to the Thousand Islands Bridge. The fog
is expected to burn off by around 10 AM.

Hitchcock