Small Craft Advisory 27, NWS Buffalo, NY

899 
WHUS71 KBUF 051439
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
939 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

LEZ040-041-052245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-190307T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
939 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-052245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
939 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-052245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
939 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-052245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.190305T1500Z-190307T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
939 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Reynolds

444 
WHUS71 KBUF 052135
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
435 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

LEZ040-041-060545-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-190307T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
435 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-060545-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
435 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-060545-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
435 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-060545-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
435 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

844 
WHUS71 KBUF 052359
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
659 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

LEZ040-041-060800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-190307T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
659 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-060800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
659 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-060800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
659 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-060800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
659 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

738 
WHUS71 KBUF 060244
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
944 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

LEZ040-041-061045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-190307T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
944 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-061045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
944 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-061045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
944 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-061045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
944 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots on
  Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

258 
WHUS71 KBUF 060534
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1234 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019

LEZ040-041-061345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-190307T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.190306T1400Z-190307T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1234 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
this evening.

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-060645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1234 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.


$$

LOZ042-061345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1234 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-061345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-190307T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1234 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
343 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably cold airmass will be in place through much of the
week along with periodic snow showers and bouts of lake effect
snow...particularly east and southeast of Lake Ontario. A steady
day to day warming trend will then follow from Friday through the
upcoming weekend, with the potential for rain increasing Saturday
night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 0840z the lake snows off Lake Erie have broken apart into
some remnant light snow showers and flurries across southern
Erie and Wyoming counties and the western Southern Tier. As the
low level flow backs to southwesterly again and becomes
increasingly more sheared through the early morning hours...what
is left of these will lift back northward across the Niagara
Frontier and continue to weaken...which should result in these
having little additional impact through this morning.

Meanwhile off our other lake...a curved narrow band of lake effect
snow extends across much of the length of the lake and into far
western Oswego county...with the band quickly dropping off in
strength from there due to the fairly weak low level flow in place
at the moment. The curved nature of this band is heralding the
expected northward shift that will begin shortly and continue
through this morning...resulting in the band lifting northward
across the Tug Hill/Watertown areas to the Saint Lawrence Valley.
During this wind shift...the low level flow will increase a bit
which should allow the inland extent of the band to improve...
though at the same time the shortening fetch and a modest increase
in shear will also likely cause it to weaken somewhat. Given that
the band is now out of Northern Cayuga county...have dropped the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for that county.

Outside of the above areas...conditions should just be cold and
largely uneventful through this morning with just some widely
scattered light snow showers and flurries.

As we move through this afternoon and evening...the weather will
turn more active across our region as the core of a mid/upper
level trough approaches and then passes through our region...
along with an attendant trailing cold front. The increase in
synoptic lift and moisture accompanying these features will result
in a period of more snow showers that will bring some minor
accumulations of an inch or so to most areas...and will also
more importantly help to reinvigorate the lake snows downwind
of the lakes.

Off Lake Erie...the combination of decreasing shear/deepening
moisture...increasing synoptic lift...and lake and terrain-driven
frictional convergence should allow for an area of lake enhanced
snow to develop northeast of the lake by early this afternoon.
Gradual veering of the winds to westerly in association with the
approach and passage of the trough will then force this area to
slowly but steadily migrate southward to Southern Erie/Wyoming/
Chautauqua/Cattaraugus counties through the late afternoon and
evening hours...where this will then weaken overnight with
diminishing moisture and synoptic support. While overall snowfall
amounts within the above region will not be overly impressive
given the mostly ice covered lake...potential lake enhancement
(as was already seen last evening) should still be enough to push
total amounts to the 2-4"/3-5" range. Combined with the afternoon/
early evening timing and the potential for increasingly brisk winds
to produce some blowing snow...we have decided to err on the side
of caution and hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for much of western
New York from this afternoon into tonight.

Meanwhile off Lake Ontario the same general process will take
place a few hours later...with the more open waters of that
lake likely helping to yield at least somewhat more impressive
lake snows that will also gradually work their way back southward
across the eastern Lake Ontario region during the course of this
afternoon and evening...before settling further southward into
areas southeast of the lake during the overnight hours. At this
juncture it appears that the migratory nature of the lake snows
may still be just enough to keep snowfall amounts confined to the
higher end of the advisory range...though lower-end warning-level
amounts certainly cannot be ruled out. Given lingering uncertainty
and lower forecast confidence with respect to the latter...for now
the remaining Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches
have been left in place east and southeast of Lake Ontario.

Aside from the snow showers and areas of lake enhanced/lake effect
snow...unseasonably cold temperatures will continue during this
period. Highs today will only range from 15 to 20 in most places...
with lows tonight again ranging from the single digits inland to
around 10 above near the south shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The main focus Wednesday through Thursday will continue to revolve
around ongoing lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario. There
remains a good deal of uncertainty with respect to exact band
placement and snowfall amounts, given the frequent changes in wind
direction and subsequent band oscillations, and diurnal influences
during the day Wednesday.

WNW flow will continue Wednesday and Wednesday night, keeping lake
effect snow focused southeast of Lake Ontario. Model guidance
continues to show numerous small scale shortwaves and surface
troughs moving across the eastern Great Lakes during this time
period, and this will likely yield small and frequent changes in
boundary layer wind direction. The frequent oscillating band
position raises uncertainty with respect to warning criteria snow
amounts. During the day Wednesday, it appears the most persistent
snow will be across Wayne and northern Cayuga counties, while Oswego
county may miss most of the snow. Another subtle wind shift
Wednesday evening may carry the lake band back into southern Oswego
County, only to be driven back south again overnight.

The intensity of the lake effect snow is also likely to change
diurnally. In March the higher sun angle promotes stronger and
deeper diurnal mixing, which often disrupts the subtle CISK driven
convergence that supports lake band structure, forcing the lake
effect snow to break apart into cellular snow showers during the
afternoon and early evening. The best band structure is often seen
overnight into the early morning when insolation driven mixing is
not present.

Given the uncertainty with frequent changes in band position, shear,
and diurnal influences, we have kept the headlines southeast of Lake
Ontario as a watch for now. Forecast accumulations in any given 12
and 24 hour block of time are borderline between high end advisory
and low end warning.

Farther west, lake effect snow will occasionally impact the south
shore of the lake from the Rochester area west to Niagara County.
The most likely times for this are Wednesday morning through early
afternoon, and then again later Wednesday night when boundary layer
flow has the most northerly component. The upstream connection to
Lake Huron may also occasionally brush this area, yielding local
enhancement. Expect accumulations of a few inches in the most
persistent bands Wednesday, and another few inches Wednesday night.
If the Lake Huron connection develops more strongly, an advisory may
be needed for some of these areas. For the Greater Rochester Area,
expect the bulk of the accumulations to be along and north of Route
104, with the greatest amounts in the northeast corner of the county
in Webster.

The latest 00Z model guidance continues to show a mid level trough
and weak surface wave crossing the eastern Great Lakes late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This feature may produce a
little light snow again areawide with minor accumulations. This
light snow will gradually end Thursday morning. A few more scattered
snow showers will continue through the day from diurnal instability,
and some limited lake effect snow will also continue southeast of
Lake Ontario from the Genesee Valley eastward to Oswego County.
Additional accumulations Thursday will be minor southeast of the
lake as inversion heights steadily drop.

Temperatures will run a solid 20F below average through the period,
with highs in the teens in most locations Wednesday and lows in the
single numbers Wednesday night away from the immediate Lake Ontario
shore. Wind chills will frequently run below zero. Highs by Thursday
afternoon will get back into the lower 20s at lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Friday an upper level shortwave will drop across the Great Lakes
region and towards the southern Mid-Atlantic States. The GFS remains
the farthest north with this feature and associated moisture field.
If the GFS verifies, it may clip our Southern Tier with a little
light snow Friday afternoon and evening.

Behind this shortwave an area of high pressure will slide across the
region, providing for a nice start to the weekend...with fair
weather Saturday. Warm advection will begin to ramp up by the
afternoon, with highs 35 to 40 across Western NY and in the mid 30s
for the North Country.

The next notable system will arrive Saturday night as a closed upper
level low rotates through the Ohio Valley. This system will send
warm air northward, with isentropic lift beneath diffluent flow
aloft bringing increasing precipitation chances later Saturday night
into Sunday. Strong warm advection ahead of the system should allow
almost all of the precipitation to fall as rain, with just a low
chance of a very brief period of light snow or mix right on the
leading edge.

Temperatures Sunday may reach the low to mid 50s in spots across
Western New York following the end of the steadier rain showers as
the warm sector becomes established across the area.

The closed upper level low will cross the eastern Great Lakes region
Monday as an open wave. This feature will bring back colder
temperatures, with highs back into the 30s. Wrap around moisture and
forcing from the upper low will bring a chance of snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Remnant snow showers east of Lake Erie and a narrow band of lake
effect snow/attendant IFR east of Lake Ontario will lift northward
and weaken through early this morning as the low level flow turns
more southwesterly and becomes increasingly sheared. Outside of
these there will just be some scattered snow showers and flurries
this morning...with a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions prevailing.

This afternoon and evening a mid level trough and trailing
surface cold front will push across the region. This will bring
about a period of more numerous snow showers and IFR that will
affect most locations...and will also help to enhance any lake
snows while shoving these back southward to areas east and then
southeast of the lakes. During this time frame...a period of
LIFR conditions will be possible at KBUF/KIAG/KART as the bands
become better organized and push back southward.

Following the passage of the trough/cold front...a northwesterly
flow of colder air will generate additional areas of lake effect
snow and IFR/LIFR southeast of the lakes tonight...particularly
southeast of Lake Ontario. Elsewhere...MVFR to VFR conditions and
scattered snow showers will prevail.

Outlook...
Wednesday through Thursday...Lake effect snow and IFR/LIFR conditions
southeast of lake Ontario, with mainly scattered snow showers and MVFR/
VFR elsewhere.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of snow showers.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
An extended period of moderate to brisk winds will affect the Lower
Great Lakes through at least midweek. Consequently...Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for Lakes Erie and Ontario...particularly
for the south shore of Lake Ontario where stronger winds and higher
waves should last through Wednesday and into Wednesday night.
After that...conditions should then improve for the Thursday-Saturday
period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ007-
     008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Thursday morning
     for NYZ006.
     Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Thursday morning
     for NYZ004-005.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this
     evening for NYZ010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Wednesday
     for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
         Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
         Wednesday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for
         LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock/Thomas
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
228 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

NYZ007-008-051930-
Jefferson-Lewis-
228 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-051930-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
228 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-051930-
Wayne-
228 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Lake effect snow will develop Tuesday night and continue through
Wednesday night or early Thursday. Moderate to heavy accumulations
are possible in the most persistent bands, especially across the
eastern portion of the county.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-006-051930-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
228 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-051930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
228 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1017 PM EST MON MAR 4 2019

NYZ010>012-085-050415-
Southern Erie-Wyoming-Genesee-Northern Erie-
1017 PM EST MON MAR 4 2019

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...
NORTHERN ERIE AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 1015 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow will continue through
late evening across the Buffalo Metro area and Southtowns, and will
also begin to extend inland across western Genesee and northwest
Wyoming counties by 11 PM. Snowfall rates will briefly reach 1 inch
per hour in this band of snow, but the heavy snow will not last in
any one location for very long.

Winds in excess of 30 mph with this band of lake effect snow will
produce some blowing and drifting snow.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57A and 48A.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4264 7916 4267 7912 4272 7909 4276 7898
      4280 7892 4284 7893 4292 7890 4296 7893
      4296 7896 4310 7834 4297 7814 4274 7824
      4260 7918

Hitchcock