Small Craft Advisory 23, NWS Buffalo, NY

728 
WHUS71 KBUF 251453
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
953 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

LOZ042-062-252300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190225T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190226T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.UP.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
953 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect until 9 PM EST this evening. The
Storm Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS...West to 45 knots.

* WAVES...18 to 23 feet.

* FREEZING SPRAY...Storm force winds and waves greater than 10 
  feet will create conditions favorable for heavy freezing spray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is
expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can
be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that
mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels
not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the
warning area.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-063-064-252300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190225T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.UP.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
953 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...22 to 27 feet.

* FREEZING SPRAY...Storm force winds and waves greater than 10 
  feet will create conditions favorable for heavy freezing spray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is
expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can
be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that
mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels
not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the
warning area.

A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots are imminent or
occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take
shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should
prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and
consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds
and waves subside.

&&

$$

LOZ045-065-252300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190225T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.UP.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
953 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 50 knots.

* WAVES...17 to 22 feet.

* FREEZING SPRAY...Storm force winds and waves greater than 10 
  feet will create conditions favorable for heavy freezing spray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is
expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can
be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that
mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels
not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the
warning area.

A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots are imminent or
occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take
shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should
prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and
consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds
and waves subside.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-252100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190225T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
953 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-252300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-190226T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
953 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

231 
WHUS71 KBUF 251939
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
239 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

LOZ043>045-063>065-260345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190225T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190226T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.UP.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
239 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect until 10 PM EST this evening. The
Storm Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS...West to 45 knots.

* WAVES...17 to 22 feet.

* FREEZING SPRAY...Storm force winds and waves greater than 10 
  feet will create conditions favorable for heavy freezing spray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is
expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can
be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that
mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels
not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the
warning area.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-260345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190225T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-190226T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
239 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 1 AM EST Tuesday. The Gale
Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-260345-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190226T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.UP.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
239 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 45 knots.

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

* FREEZING SPRAY...Storm force winds and waves greater than 10 
  feet will create conditions favorable for heavy freezing spray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is
expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can
be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that
mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels
not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the
warning area.

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-260300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-190226T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
239 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

629 
WHUS71 KBUF 260231
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
931 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

LOZ043>045-261045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190226T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0024.190226T0231Z-190227T0600Z/
/O.CAN.KBUF.UP.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
931 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 1 AM EST Wednesday. The Gale
Warning has been cancelled. The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning has
been cancelled.

* WINDS...Northwest to 30 knots.

* WAVES...11 to 15 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-261045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190226T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0024.190226T0231Z-190227T0300Z/
/O.CAN.KBUF.UP.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
931 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 10 PM EST Tuesday. The Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning has been cancelled. The Gale Warning has
been cancelled.

* WINDS...Northwest to 30 knots.

* WAVES...7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-260345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190226T0300Z/
/O.CAN.KBUF.UP.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
931 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Gale
Warning. The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning has been cancelled.

Winds have fallen below gale force, and the threat of significant 
freezing spray has ended, therefore the warnings have been
cancelled.

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-260345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-190226T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
931 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds have fallen below advisory levels, therefore the advisory
has been cancelled. 

$$

LEZ040-041-260345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-190226T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
931 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds have fallen below advisory levels, therefore the advisory
has been cancelled. 

$$

JJR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1234 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will track into western Quebec overnight, then
into the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. This system will produce
strong wind gusts across the region overnight and into Monday
morning, while also driving much colder air back across our region.
The increasingly colder air flowing across the lakes will produce
bands of lake effect snow tonight, which when combined with the
strong winds will create significant blowing snow east of the Lakes,
with blizzard conditions expected east of Lake Ontario. Surface high
pressure will then build into the region Tuesday and relieve the
area of the strong winds and snowfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of late evening areas of wraparound/orographically-enhanced snow
continue east of both lakes...with some lake enhancement now also
beginning to kick in east of Lake Erie. As for the winds...
observational trends continue to show fairly widespread warning-
level winds with gusts to 60-65 mph continuing from the Chautauqua
county shoreline northeastward across the Niagara Frontier and
Rochester areas...with more in the way of higher-end advisory-level
winds (gusts of 45-55 mph) persisting across the rest of the Finger
Lakes region and North Country. The weakest winds are found across
interior portions of the Southern Tier...where gusts continue to
flirt with and occasionally reach lower-end advisory criteria at
times. At this juncture...both model guidance and observational
trends indicate that the threat for 70+ mph wind gusts has
passed...with these likely to remain confined to the 60-65 mph
range at worst overnight.

Digging further into the forecast details...

Winds...

Overnight winds will continue from the southwest-west with continued
gusts of 60-65 mph. What will also make this wind event concerning
will be the prolonged period of damaging winds, with gusts over 60
mph possible for about a 12 hour period. This lengthy period of
winds battering the region could increase the severity of this wind
event. As winds veer to west-northwesterly late tonight there may be
a subtle uptick in the wind gusts along the southern Lake Ontario
shoreline and through the Lower Genesee Valley.

Winds may still be gusting to 60 mph or greater Monday morning
southeast of Lake Ontario from Rochester eastward to Oswego County,
and possibly across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier
and western Finger Lakes. These areas typically see their highest
gusts with a WNW wind direction. Winds will then gradually back off
through the course of the day. Winds will more dramatically drop off
shortly after sunset as diurnal mixing subsides and stronger winds
aloft begin to move away.

Temperatures...

Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s, with
temperatures 12Z Monday morning some 20 to 30F degrees cooler than
where they were 24 hours prior.

Highs on Monday will reach the mid 20s on the lake plains and around
20 across higher terrain.

Snow...

850 mb temperatures will plummet to -15C over the Lakes which will
increase the instability and generate lake effect snow. As lake
effect snow parameters become increasingly favorable, bands of snow
will form to the east and then southeast of the Lakes.

On Lake Erie...temperatures aloft have become cold enough to allow
some lake enhancement to begin to mix in with the ongoing wraparound
and orographically-induced snows east of that lake...with the former
likely supported by slivers of open water, in addition to sensible
heat flux through thin or broken ice waters. This stated...even with
some open lake water this is not a particularly favorable setup, and
the majority of the snow will be from upslope flow and synoptic
scale convergence rather than lake effect processes.

The greatest total nighttime snow accumulations will be across the
Boston Hills, western Wyoming County, and the Chautauqua Ridge. Here
4 to 7 inches of snow will fall, though measuring this snow will be
quite difficult as strong winds will create blowing and drifting.
These winds, combined with cellular bursts of snow will create brief
white-out conditions at times. Farther north, expect 1-3 inches of
accumulation across Northern Erie and Genesee counties including
Buffalo and Batavia, with brief whiteout conditions with bursts of
snow showers and blowing snow.

On Lake Ontario...a blizzard warning continues for the region,
starting this evening and going through Monday afternoon.
Wraparound/upslope snows will continue late this evening, with lake
induced equilibrium levels expected to increase to around 8-9K feet
which will be plenty tall enough for lake effect snow to form by the
early overnight hours. On a westerly flow wind convergence from both
the north and south shoreline of Lake Ontario will create enough
lift for either clusters of snow, or a band of lake snow.

This snowband, or fractured bands of snow within the strong wind
field, are expected to first impact Jefferson and northern Lewis
counties, with a slow veering to the winds bringing the
concentration of snow southward across the upslope Tug Hill region,
and eventually farther south into Oswego County late tonight and
Monday morning. During the day Monday the boundary layer flow will
continue to slowly veer more WNW, carrying the lake effect snow
slowly south across Oswego County. The snow may eventually clip
northern Cayuga County and northeast Wayne counties.

Total accumulations will reach 6-10 inches across the higher terrain
of the Tug Hill with a significant upslope component, with 3-6
inches in the surrounding lower elevations through late Monday
afternoon.

The worst blizzard conditions will focus on the Tug Hill region,
including southern Jefferson, northern Oswego, and western Lewis
counties where the snow will be most persistent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue southeast of the lakes tonight.
The response off Lake Erie will be very muted, with only a few
flurries and light snow showers lingering across the higher
terrain southeast of the lakes with little additional
accumulation. Conditions will continue to be more favorable off
Lake Ontario. Boundary layer flow will continue to veer slowly
to the NW with a band of lake effect snow across Oswego County
early in the evening dropping south and west across Northern
Cayuga and Wayne counties. These areas may see 2-4 inches of
accumulation in the evening along with some blowing and drifting
snow. Once the boundary layer flow passes about 290 degrees the
lake effect snow will break up into multiple bands across the
entire southern shore from Niagara to Cayuga counties including
the Rochester area, and extending into the western Finger Lakes.
The snow will weaken by this time, with 1-2 inches of
accumulation overnight. Winds will be less of an issue, but
still strong enough to cause areas of blowing snow southeast of
Lake Ontario this evening before diminishing late tonight.

On Tuesday high pressure will build into the central Great Lakes,
with strong low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes. This will
maintain a northwesterly flow across the area, which will gradually
diminish heading into Tuesday evening. The airmass will be quite
dry, but with 850mb temperatures around -21C there will be ample
lake induced instability for considerable lake effect clouds and
some lake effect snow showers south of Lake Ontario. The dry airmass
should limit snow accumulations, but 1-3 inches is possible from
localized bands. Otherwise, temperatures will be well below normal
on Tuesday with highs only in the teens to lower 20s which is a
solid 15 degrees below normal. Winds will be less of an issue, but
still will gust 20 to 30 mph with daytime wind chill values near
zero.

On Tuesday night the surface high will move across the eastern Great
Lakes and into New England on Wednesday. This will provide a brief
period of dry weather Tuesday night when winds go calm underneath
the surface high. However 00Z guidance is in better agreement and
brings a broad area of mid-level warm air advection into the region
late Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will be followed by a weak
area of low pressure which will move across the region Wednesday
evening before exiting into New England late Wednesday night. This
is likely to bring a general light snowfall in the 1-3 inch range
for most locations.

Meanwhile temperatures will remain below normal with lows Tuesday
night in the teens and single digits, with some below zero readings
across the North Country. On Wednesday highs will mainly be in the
20s, except the teens across the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday will be mostly precipitation free until the late evening
when a weak disturbance approaches the area. Thursday night into
Friday, a weak shortwave trough will cross the area with chance POPs
for most areas, except the North Country where forcing looks a
little less favorable, and therefore will have slight chance POPs.
Precipitation will start out as snow showers and mix with rain
during the day on Friday across the lower elevations as temperatures
warm.

A strengthening area of low pressure will track from the western
Ohio Valley and cross the Central Great Lakes Friday night into
Saturday afternoon. With this system precipitation will overspread
the area, initially as snow then changing to rain as warm air
advection increases ahead of an accompanying cold front. Winds
behind this area of low pressure will increase and wind headlines
may be needed for Sunday. Behind this area of low pressure a large
trough will persist through this time period with the potential for
snow showers across the area and lake effect snow off of both lakes,
especially the more ice free Lake Ontario, where a multi lake
connection looks possible.

High temperatures will start out around 30 on Thursday for most
areas and warm to the mid 30s on Friday and to the low 40s for
Saturday. Temperatures on Sunday will drop to the low to mid 20s by
Sunday behind the passing cold front. Low temperatures on Thursday
and Friday night will be in the low to upper 20s across the area
with some teens over the higher terrain of the North Country on
Thursday night. Temperatures will be in the low to mid teens for
Saturday and Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of late evening large areas of wraparound/orographically-induced
snow continue east of both lakes...with areas of lake enhancement
developing east of Lake Erie...and similar lake enhancement expected
to develop east of Lake Ontario over the next 2-3 hours. The snow,
combined with still- strong winds will create blowing snow that will
bring a period of VLIFR to IFR visibilities. As winds veer more
westerly and then west-northwesterly with time through the course of
the night...the areas of snow will eventually consolidate across
areas south of KBUF/KART, and in the vicinity of KJHW.

Winds will continue to be strong tonight with gusts across the Lake
Plains possibly nearing 55 knots occasionally. The longest duration
of high winds will likely be from KROC over to KFZY, where late
tonight and Monday morning a west to northwesterly flow off Lake
Ontario will maintain strong wind gusts.

Winds will gradually back off through the day Monday but remain very
gusty. Lake effect snow showers across the higher terrain east of
Lake Erie including KJHW will slowly diminish. Lake effect snow
southeast of Lake Ontario will continue to produce local IFR Monday
and Monday night, eventually focusing near KFZY.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR with local IFR in scattered lake effect snow showers.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with snow likely.
Thursday...VFR, with local IFR in scattered lake effect snow
showers.
Friday...MVFR with a chance of rain/snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A deepening area of low pressure will track into western Quebec
through tonight. This low, combined with strong cold air
advection...strong LLJ aloft and a tight pressure gradient will
yield sustained storm force winds on the Lakes, and gales across the
Niagara River. Winds could gust to 65 knots at times on the Lakes
through tonight. These storm force winds are expected to continue
through the night, and linger through the morning hours of Monday on
Lake Ontario. These winds will generate significant wave heights of
25 feet on Lake Ontario, with an occasional wave over 30 feet. Storm
Warnings are in effect for both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Winds will
gradually back off through the day Monday, dropping below gales by
mid afternoon on Lake Erie, and by mid evening on Lake Ontario.

A heavy freezing spray warning is in effect for Lake Ontario for
later tonight through Monday night. The combination of strong winds,
high waves and temperatures falling below freezing will result in
heavy freezing spray on vessels.

It will not be until Tuesday night when a surface high pressure
nears the region that winds and waves will diminish back to fair
boating weather.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Powerful winds gusting to 60-70 mph will result in significant
water rises in the eastern basins of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
tonight.

Along the Lake Erie shore...lake levels have struggled to get
much above 8 to 8.5 feet above low water datum thus far...or well
below the 11 feet previously projected for this point in time by
forecast guidance. With the strongest winds already having passed...
it now appears more likely that lake levels will actually peak
a couple feet lower than previously thought...or in the 8 to 9
foot range. Thus...while lakeshore flooding is still expected...
the impacts at this point do not appear as if they will be
quite as extreme as earlier feared. Nonetheless...the rise in
lake levels will still break up the ice in place on the lake...
and this will still get pushed onto shoreline areas likely
causing damage to the immediate lakeshore, including the
Buffalo Harbor and Buffalo waterfront. Ice chunks may also damage
structures, and even get pushed into rivers and creeks flowing
into Lake Erie. Ice will also get pushed across/through the
Niagara River Ice Boom into the Upper Niagara River...likely
causing damage along shoreline areas of the Upper Niagara River.
A Flash Flood Watch has been issued to cover this potential.

The highest water levels will be early this evening.

Along Lake Ontario...Significant water rises and high waves are
expected to impact shoreline areas from Oswego county to the
Saint Lawrence River. Ice in place, especially at the northeast
end extending to the Saint Lawrence River will get pushed onto
shoreline areas likely causing damage. Areas which may be
particularly vulnerable to flooding and ice damage are Sandy
Pond, Black River Bay, Chaumont Bay, and the Thousand Islands
Region of the Saint Lawrence River. Ice blocks will get pushed
onshore, and possibly into rivers and creeks flowing into Lake
Ontario. While Lake Ontario does not respond as dramatically to
a lake seiche, guidance suggests a 2 foot rise across the
eastern end of the Lake. This combined with waves which may
reach 25 feet is likely to have a major impact on the immediate
lakeshore.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ001-010-019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ012-019-020-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ006>008.
     Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ001-010.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ010-011.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for LEZ040-
         041.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JJR
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JJR
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JJR
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA/Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas/JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

NYZ008-252200-
Lewis-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Blizzard Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Blizzard Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-007-252200-
Oswego-Jefferson-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Blizzard Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Blizzard Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002>005-013-014-021-252200-
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-252200-
Niagara-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-252200-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ011-252200-
Genesee-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-252200-
Northern Erie-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-252200-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-252200-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-252200-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM
EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.
   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.
   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-252200-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-252200-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
453 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1038 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ROCHESTER AIRPORT       43.12N  77.67W
02/24/2019  M66 MPH          MONROE             NY   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900956

KRA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1051 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-250700-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
1051 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...

Areas of snow will move across Western New York overnight.
This will combine with winds gusting 50 to 60 mph to produce areas
of blowing snow and localized whiteout conditions. Snowfall rates
will vary in intensity, but it does not take much snow to make
travel extremely difficult. Also be aware there is debris on many
roadways from the strong winds. Travel will be extremely difficult
overnight, and should be avoided if at all possible. If you must
travel, slow down and be prepared for areas of poor visibility,
debris, or damaged traffic lights.

Apffel

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1212 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BUFFALO                 42.89N  78.86W
02/24/2019                   ERIE               NY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            *** 2 INJ *** TWO PEOPLE HAVE BEEN INJURED BY FALLING
            LIGHT POLES. ONE WAS AT NIAGARA AND GARFIELD IN THE CITY
            OF BUFFALO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900957

KRA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1248 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

NYZ006>008-250745-
Jefferson-Oswego-Lewis-
1248 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT...

At 1245 AM EST, lake effect snow was intensifying east of Lake
Ontario with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour expected
overnight. Meanwhile, winds will gust to 60 mph during this time,
with the strongest gusts expected to be near the Lake Ontario
shoreline. Wind gusts this strong can blow over high profile
vehicles, especially trucks with empty trailers. This also will
result in areas of blowing snow, which will lower visibility to below
a quarter mile in areas of lake effect snow. Travel will be
extremely difficult to impossible.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 33 and 41.

LAT...LON 4342 7553 4348 7581 4333 7589 4342 7663
      4347 7661 4356 7645 4356 7631 4358 7626
      4369 7626 4386 7634 4379 7513 4361 7511

Apffel

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
119 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ORCHARD PARK            42.76N  78.75W
02/24/2019  M66 MPH          ERIE               NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900958

KRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
128 AM EST MON FEB 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HAMBURG                 42.72N  78.83W
02/24/2019  M72 MPH          ERIE               NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900959

KRA