Alert archive / New York / River Flood Warnings in 2019
River Flood Warning 5, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this river flood warning at Nov 2, 2019, 12:46 AM EDT for Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York. It took effect at Nov 2, 2019, 10:07 PM EDT. It was in force for 43 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 2, 2019, 12:46 AM EDT (04:46 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 2, 2019, 10:07 PM EDT
- Expired
- Nov 4, 2019, 3:51 PM EST
- In force
- 43 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Black River at Watertown (ARTN6). The gauge peaked at 11.24 ft at Nov 3, 2019, 12:00 PM EST.
- Action stage
- 8 ft
- Minor stage
- 10 ft
- Moderate stage
- 12 ft
- Major stage
- 14 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04260500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
485
WGUS41 KBUF 020446
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1246 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
...The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Flood Warning
for The following rivers in New York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-021046-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FL.W.0005.191105T0100Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191105T0100Z.191105T0100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1246 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a
* Flood warning for
the Black River At Watertown
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At 11 PM Friday the stage was 7.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday
evening, with a crest near 10.5 feet Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in the
Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
Hitchcock12 follow-up statements
599
WGUS81 KBUF 021011
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
611 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Boonville
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-065-021610-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-191102T2000Z/
/BOON6.1.ER.191101T1304Z.191101T2216Z.191102T1400Z.NR/
611 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Boonville
* until this afternoon.
* At 6 AM Saturday the stage was 10.2 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall...and is expected to
drop below flood stage late this morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, widespread farmland flooding in
the Flats area. Several roads may be closed in Glenfield,
Martinsburg, and Lowville.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7550 4394 7536 4378 7537 4348 7524
4346 7534 4386 7559
$$
NYC045-049-021610-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.191105T0100Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191105T0100Z.191105T0100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
611 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Watertown
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At 5 AM Saturday the stage was 8.2 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday
evening, with a crest near 10.5 feet Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in the
Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
Hitchcock440
WGUS81 KBUF 021545
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1145 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Boonville
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-065-021615-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-191102T2000Z/
/BOON6.1.ER.191101T1304Z.191101T2216Z.191102T1125Z.NR/
1145 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Black River At Boonville.
* At 11 AM Saturday the stage was 9.6 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage this morning and will
continue to fall to around 8.3 feet by Sunday morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, widespread farmland flooding in
the Flats area. Several roads may be closed in Glenfield,
Martinsburg, and Lowville.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7550 4394 7536 4378 7537 4348 7524
4346 7534 4386 7559
$$
NYC045-049-022144-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.191104T1900Z-191105T1000Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191104T1900Z.191105T0100Z.191105T0400Z.NO/
1145 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Watertown
* from Monday afternoon to late Monday night.
* At 10 AM Saturday the stage was 8.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage Monday
afternoon and crest near 10.1 feet Monday evening.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in the
Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
Apffel582
WGUS81 KBUF 022138
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
538 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-030337-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.191103T1300Z-191105T1000Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191103T1300Z.191104T0700Z.191105T0400Z.NO/
538 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Watertown
* from Sunday morning to late Monday night.
* At 4 PM Saturday the stage was 9.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise above flood stage Sunday
morning and crest near 10.1 feet early Monday morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in the
Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
TMA779
WGUS81 KBUF 030209
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1009 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-030808-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.191103T0207Z-191105T0336Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191102T2254Z.191103T0500Z.191104T2136Z.NO/
1009 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Watertown
* until Monday evening.
* At 9 PM Saturday the stage was 10.3 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 10.8 feet
late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in the
Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$185
WGUS81 KBUF 030711
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
211 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-031310-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-191105T0336Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191102T2254Z.191103T1200Z.191104T2136Z.NO/
211 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Watertown
* until Monday evening.
* At 1 AM Sunday the stage was 10.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 10.9 feet
this morning. The river is then expected to remain above flood stage
through Monday.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in the
Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
Hitchcock861
WGUS81 KBUF 031027
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
527 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-031626-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-191105T0336Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191102T2254Z.191103T1200Z.191104T2136Z.NO/
527 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Watertown
* until Monday evening.
* At 4 AM Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 11.0 feet
this morning. The river is then expected to remain above flood stage through Monday.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in the
Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
Hitchcock807
WGUS81 KBUF 031639
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1139 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-032238-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-191105T0130Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191102T2254Z.191103T1500Z.191104T1930Z.NO/
1139 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Watertown
* until Monday evening.
* At 10 AM Sunday the stage was 11.1 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will crest near 11.1 feet this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread farmland flooding
in the Flats. Numerous road closures in Castorland, Denmark,
Lowville, and Carthage. Some residential properties flooded in the
Flats.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
Apffel357
WGUS81 KBUF 032231
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
531 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-040431-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-191105T0130Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191102T2254Z.191103T1700Z.191104T1930Z.NO/
531 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Watertown
* until Monday evening.
* At 4 PM Sunday the stage was 11.1 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river crested near 11.1 feet this afternoon...a slow
fall is expected tonight...and is expected to drop below flood stage
Monday afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Moderate flood, widespread farmland flooding
in the Flats. Numerous road closures in Castorland, Denmark,
Lowville, and Carthage. Some residential properties flooded in the
Flats.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
TMA014
WGUS81 KBUF 040427
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1127 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-041027-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-191105T0130Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191102T2254Z.191103T1700Z.191104T1930Z.NO/
1127 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Watertown
* until Monday evening.
* At 10 PM Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to drop below flood stage early
Monday afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in the
Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
Hitchcock814
WGUS81 KBUF 041018
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
518 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-041617-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-191105T0130Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191102T2254Z.191103T1700Z.191104T1930Z.NO/
518 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Watertown
* until this evening.
* At 4 AM Monday the stage was 10.6 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall...and is expected to
drop below flood stage this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in the
Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$
Hitchcock346
WGUS81 KBUF 041510
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019
...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-042110-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-191105T0130Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191102T2254Z.191103T1700Z.191104T1930Z.NO/
1010 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019
The flood warning continues for
The Black River At Watertown
* until this evening.
* At 9 AM Monday the stage was 10.3 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall...and is expected to
drop below flood stage this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in the
Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$853
WGUS81 KBUF 042051
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2019
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New
York...
Black River At Watertown
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The
water may be deeper than it appears. Turn around...don't drown!
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further
details and updates.
&&
NYC045-049-042121-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-191105T0130Z/
/ARTN6.1.ER.191102T2254Z.191103T1700Z.191104T2007Z.NO/
351 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2019
The flood warning is cancelled for
The Black River At Watertown.
* At 330 PM Monday the stage was 9.9 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage late this afternoon and
will continue to fall to around 9.2 feet by Tuesday morning.
* IMPACT...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage, farmland flooding begins in the
Flats with some roads flooded. Minor damages to riverfront
commercial properties in Dexter.
&&
LAT...LON 4392 7531 4374 7550 4397 7567 4392 7606
4405 7612 4408 7559
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Nov 1, 11:08 PM EDT, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 1, 11:08 PM EDT, 1 hour 38 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1108 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered lake effect rain and some wet snow showers will continue
east of the lakes tonight before high pressure builds in briefly
Saturday. Another surge of colder air will bring lake effect snow
across the higher terrain east of the lakes later Saturday night and
Sunday morning, with moderate accumulations possible in some areas.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The powerful storm which produced the significant wind event across
western and north central New York is over eastern Quebec heading to
Atlantic Canada. Winds have quickly come down across the region.
What a difference compared to 24 hours ago!
The airmass is just cold enough (-4c at 3-5kft) for a marginal lake
response. A few light rain and snow showers are drifting in off of
Lake Erie toward Buffalo, but by far, the better band of lake effect
rain and snow showers is streaming in across the Tug Hill with web
cam at Redfield showing snow in the air. This band may produce
additional very minor snow accumulations across higher terrain into
the overnight hours. Boundary layer flow will eventually back more
southerly overnight carrying any lake induced precipitation
northward, with the precipitation eventually dissipated Saturday
morning. Lows tonight will be in the mid 30s on the lake plains,
with mid to upper 20s in the colder interior locations.
Quieter conditions will start Saturday once any lingering lake
effect precipitation fades away, as high pressure briefly
builds in. This should allow for a mostly dry day.
A clipper system will travel across the southern Canadian provinces,
centering over Ontario just north of Lake Superior by 18Z Saturday.
This advancing clipper system will allow a weak cold frontal
boundary to approach western New York by the end of the day.
Marginally cold air within the southwest flow ahead of the
front is expected to generate a band of lake effect
precipitation into the region off Lake Erie toward Saturday
evening. Thermal profiles suggesting the bulk of this will be
rain, although some mix with wet snow is possible over the
highest terrain south and east of Buffalo.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night low pressure near James Bay will sweep a cold front
across our area from west to east...with cold advection in its wake
driving initial 850 mb temps of -3C/-4C downward to the -5C to -8C
range. With the low level flow also veering from southwesterly to
westerly...all of this should result in initial lake-enhanced rain
showers to the northeast of both lakes shifting southward to areas
east of both lakes while also mainly transitioning over to lake and
orographically-enhanced snow showers. As is typically the case...
this process will take place first off Lake Erie (during the
evening)...and later on off Lake Ontario (during the later evening
and early overnight hours). With the low level flow trending to
almost due westerly across both lakes...the Lake Erie lake effect
activity will steadily push southward and (eventually) settle mainly
across Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties during the course of Saturday
night...while the Lake Ontario activity will largely settle across
the Tug Hill Plateau. Once in these areas...a general steady-state
westerly flow will keep the activity largely in place through Sunday
morning.
Off both lakes...lake parameters will generally be most favorable
from the second half of Saturday night into Sunday morning...when
favorably deep moisture will be in place beneath inversion heights
of 10-11 kft...and when the steering winds will be most aligned.
This should result in the most organized activity occurring over
the traditional lake effect areas east of both lakes during the above
time frame...with the activity then notably weakening through the
course of Sunday and eventually lifting back northward as diurnal
effects increase...and as high pressure builds into the region from
the Ohio Valley and brings a falling cap...low level drying...and
a slowly backing/increasingly sheared low level flow.
Given expected thermal profiles through the lake effect event...the
bulk of any accumulating snowfall should tend to be mostly confined
to the higher terrain of the aforementioned areas from later Saturday
evening through the first part of Sunday...with little to negligible
accumulations expected across the lower elevations. The above said...
the overall setup continues to lend increasing confidence to some
lower-end advisory-type snowfall amounts (3-6") across the Tug Hill
and the higher terrain of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties...and
with both this and the fact that this will be the first accumulating
snowfall of the season in mind...we have elected to hoist winter weather
advisories for the above areas for Saturday night and Sunday. Again...
the bulk of the accumulating snowfall in these areas is expected to
come between Saturday night and the first part of Sunday...with
increasing diurnal influences and the weakening nature of the activity
then resulting in steadily lowering accumulations through the remainder
of Sunday.
Outside of the precipitation associated with the cold frontal passage
and the main areas of lake effect/lake enhancement...this period will
feature mainly dry conditions and a trend to well below average
temperatures...with highs on Sunday only expected to be in the upper
30s to lower 40s for the most part.
By Sunday evening the last vestiges of the lake effect activity will
be in the form of some dying rain and snow showers that will lift
northward across the Niagara Frontier/Jefferson County and dissipate
through the course of the evening...with mainly dry weather then
anticipated through the remainder of the night and Monday as the
surface high slowly exits eastward across New England...and as the
next wave of low pressure approaches from the Upper Great Lakes.
With the developing warm advection regime in between these two
systems...Monday should also feature a return to milder conditions...
with highs rebounding into the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas.
Monday night and Tuesday the aforementioned broad low will gradually
make its way northeastward across Quebec Province...while slowly
pivoting its trailing cold front across our region. This will result
in an increasing potential for at least some scattered showers through
the last 24 hours of this period...with some lake enhancement also
becoming possible east of both lakes during Tuesday as temperatures
aloft begin to cool.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Behind Tuesday's cold front...somewhat colder air will again build
across the area Tuesday night...with a short-lived lake response east
of both lakes likely to die out on Wednesday with increasing diurnal
influences and as surface-based ridging and much drier air builds back
across our region. Meanwhile...the colder airmass will drive temps
back to below normal levels...with highs on Wednesday mainly ranging
in the lower to mid 40s.
After that...the GFS/ECMWF are coming into significantly better
agreement on the passage of yet another fast-moving surface wave/
cold front between Wednesday night and Thursday...with a northwesterly
flow of much colder air then following for Thursday and Friday with
consensus 850 mb temperatures falling to between -12C and -14C. Should
this come to fruition...this would result in temps falling to WELL
below average for the end of next week...with another mixed bag of
rain and snow showers Wednesday night/Thursday transitioning into
some northwest-flow lake effect snow showers for Thursday night
and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered lake effect showers will continue tonight east of the
lakes, especially Lake Ontario. MVFR cigs with spotty MVFR vsby
possible in these showers. What remains of these showers will move
north late tonight as boundary layer flow veers to the southwest.
The lake effect clouds and scattered showers will dissipate by
daybreak Saturday. Otherwise, expect a broken to overcast deck of
lower VFR cigs to gradually fade away through the night away from
the lakes.
Outlook...
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A Chance of showers.
Saturday night and Sunday...Mainly VFR, except IFR in lake effect
rain and snow showers east of the lakes.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
As deep low pressure heads toward Atlantic Canada, expect winds and
waves to continue to subside across the lakes, though Small Craft
Advisories linger especially on Lake Ontario through later tonight,
mainly due to the residual higher waves. High pressure over the area
later tonight into Saturday will allow for relatively lighter winds
on the lakes.
A clipper low enters the Great Lakes Saturday and will extend a cold
front across the lakes by Saturday night. West winds will increase
behind the front and waves will build again, likely bringing a round
of small craft advisory criteria conditions for Saturday night
into Sunday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM EDT Saturday to 4 PM EST
Sunday for NYZ006>008.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM EDT Saturday to 1 PM EST
Sunday for NYZ019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for
LOZ044-045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/JLA/TMAHazardous weather outlook, Nov 1, 8:10 PM EDT, 4 hours 36 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 810 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-030015- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee- Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- 810 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012-085-030015- Wyoming-Southern Erie- 810 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Lake effect snow showers could produce 1 to 3 inches of accumulation across the higher terrain between Saturday night and Sunday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ019-020-030015- Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- 810 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006>008-030015- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 810 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-030015- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 810 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
In the hours before
Local storm report, Nov 2, 12:23 AM EDT, 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1223 AM EDT SAT NOV 02 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CAPE VINCENT 44.13N 76.33W
11/01/2019 JEFFERSON NY SOCIAL MEDIA
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE TOWN, INCLUDING SEVERAL ON
HOMES. SEVERAL POWER POLES BLOWN OVER AND SNAPPED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901624
HITCHCOCKLocal storm report, Nov 2, 12:28 AM EDT, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1228 AM EDT SAT NOV 02 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WATERTOWN 43.98N 75.90W
11/01/2019 JEFFERSON NY NEWSPAPER
LARGE TREE DOWN ON A HOME ON HIGH ST
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901625
HITCHCOCKLocal storm report, Nov 2, 12:31 AM EDT, 15 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1231 AM EDT SAT NOV 02 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0545 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW SACKETS HARBOR 43.95N 76.12W
11/01/2019 JEFFERSON NY NEWSPAPER
SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE TO A BUILDING AT THE SACKETS
HARBOR BATTLEFIELD STATE HISTORIC SITE
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901626
HITCHCOCKLocal storm report, Nov 2, 12:33 AM EDT, 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1233 AM EDT SAT NOV 02 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM COASTAL FLOOD BOULTONS BEACH 43.94N 76.14W
11/01/2019 JEFFERSON NY NEWSPAPER
BROWN SHORES RD WASHED OUT AND CLOSED DUE TO LAKESHORE
FLOODING FROM LAKE ONTARIO
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901627
HITCHCOCKLocal storm report, Nov 2, 12:35 AM EDT, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1235 AM EDT SAT NOV 02 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW NORTH ADAMS 43.90N 76.06W
11/01/2019 JEFFERSON NY NEWSPAPER
APPROXIMATELY 30 FOOT BY 75 FOOT BARN BLOWN DOWN
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901628
HITCHCOCKThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 8:52 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | BUF | Lewis | 12 hr |
| Nov 2, 4:20 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 46 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in New York, 2019Every river flood warning in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.