River Flood Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

855 
WGUS81 KBUF 072222
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
522 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-063-080421-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190208T0600Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.190207T1807Z.190207T2200Z.190208T0000Z.NO/
522 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* until late tonight.
* At 5 PM Thursday the stage was 12.2 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage later this evening.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas 
  along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and 
  Tonawanda Creek Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

Welch

938 
WGUS41 KBUF 080212
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
912 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-063-080812-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190208T1827Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.190207T1807Z.190208T0600Z.190208T1227Z.NO/
912 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019


The flood warning continues for 
  the Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* until early Friday afternoon.
* At 9 PM Thursday the stage was 12.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 12.6 feet
  late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas 
  along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and 
  Tonawanda Creek Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

Welch

366 
WGUS81 KBUF 080810
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
310 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids

  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.

&&

NYC029-063-081409-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190209T0730Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.190207T1807Z.190208T1200Z.190209T0130Z.NO/
310 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...Flood warning extended until late tonight...

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* until late tonight.
* At 3 AM Friday the stage was 12.7 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river will continue to rise and crest near 12.8 feet
  this morning. 
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas 
  along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and 
  Tonawanda Creek Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

Hitchcock

761 
WGUS81 KBUF 081159
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
659 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...


  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-063-081759-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190209T1600Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.190207T1807Z.190208T1131Z.190209T1000Z.NO/
659 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...Flood warning extended until Saturday morning...

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* until Saturday morning.
* At 7 AM Friday the stage was 12.9 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river is near crest now and is expected to drop 
  below flood stage early Saturday morning.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas 
  along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and 
  Tonawanda Creek Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

888 
WGUS81 KBUF 081623
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1123 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...


  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-063-082223-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190210T0000Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.190207T1807Z.190208T1800Z.190209T1800Z.NO/
1123 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...Flood warning extended until Saturday evening...

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* until Saturday evening.
* At 11 AM Friday the stage was 12.9 feet and nearing crest.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river will crest near 12.9 feet
  this afternoon. 
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas 
  along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and 
  Tonawanda Creek Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$
DPK

451 
WGUS81 KBUF 082213
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
513 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-063-090413-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190210T0000Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.190207T1807Z.190208T1631Z.190209T1800Z.NO/
513 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* until Saturday evening.
* At 5 PM Friday the stage was 12.6 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river crested at 12.9 feet earlier this afternoon.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas 
  along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and 
  Tonawanda Creek Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

Welch

605 
WGUS81 KBUF 090317
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1017 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...The Flood Warning continues for The following rivers in New 
York...


  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-063-090917-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190209T1200Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.190207T1807Z.190208T1631Z.190209T0600Z.NO/
1017 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

The flood warning continues for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids
* until Saturday morning.
* At 10 PM Friday the stage was 12.1 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall...and is expected to 
  drop below flood stage late tonight.
* IMPACT...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas 
  along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, and 
  Tonawanda Creek Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

367 
WGUS81 KBUF 090819
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
319 AM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for The following rivers in New 
York...

  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...Never drive your car through flooded roadways. The 
water may be deeper than it appears.  Turn around...don't drown!

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further 
details and updates.


&&

NYC029-063-090849-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190209T1200Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.190207T1807Z.190208T1631Z.190209T0420Z.NO/
319 AM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

The flood warning is cancelled for
  The Tonawanda Creek At Rapids.
* At 3 AM Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river fell below flood stage last night and will 
  continue to fall to around 10.0 feet by Sunday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863 
      4315 7847 4302 7846            

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1109 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and drizzle will remain across the region
into this afternoon before much milder air finally expands
northward across the region late afternoon and early evening. A
deepening area of low pressure will pass by to our west and
north tonight, driving a cold front across the region Friday
morning with strong winds and another round of showers. Cold air
flowing across Lake Ontario Friday and Saturday will bring
accumulating lake effect snow to areas east and southeast of the
lake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The High Wind Watch was upgraded to a warning. The strongest gusts
will likely be immediately behind a strong cold front which will
reach Buffalo around 1 a.m., Rochester around 3 a.m., and Watertown
around 5 a.m. Expect 1-2 hour period with wind gusts up to 60 mph
immediately following the frontal passage. This is a challenging
event to forecast. The decision to upgrade is supported by latest
guidance maintaining a 50-60 knot LLJ at 3K feet, a rapidly
strengthening low, and a strong isallobaric component to the wind.
Also, the latest HRRR guidance shows a line of strong winds behind
the front, which may be enhanced by funnelling from the
Chautauqua Ridge. Wind gusts may not reach 60 mph in Jefferson
County, but with temperatures expected to remain in the 30s
there will be considerable ice still on trees, so slightly below
warning criteria winds will still have a significant impact. A
Wind Advisory was issued for the rest of the forecast area. The
front will produce a period of gusty winds elsewhere - just not
as strong as near the lakes. Then behind the front, 45-50 knot
925mb winds will support wind gusts to 50 mph across the entire
area on Friday.

The Flood Watch was expanded to include the rest of Western New
York. There remains some uncertainty in rainfall amounts due to the
convective nature of the precipitation, but there is a risk of
a half inch or greater of rain in the watch area. This combined
with snow and ice melt with the warmer temperatures presents a
risk for river and creek flooding. See the hydrology section of
the discussion for more on this.

There remains a layer of cold and moist air trapped beneath an
inversion this morning. This is resulting in below freezing
temperatures across much of the area, along with areas of drizzle
and freezing drizzle. The only area where temperatures have risen
above freezing is across the Western Southern Tier, where winds have
shifted to the south. The other concern is areas of fog, which in
some cases is located in below freezing areas which may add to the
freezing drizzle concerns. The Winter Weather Advisory was
extended until 3 p.m. due to the very slow rise in surface
temperatures, and remains in effect until 10 p.m. in Jefferson
County. An increasing southerly flow aloft will eventually
translate to the surface, which will lead to a rapid rise in
surface temperatures - eventually. Unfortunately, this will take
some time along and north of I-90, but eventually there will be
an abrupt rise into the 40s (and even 50s) this afternoon once
the warmer air aloft finally mixes to the surface. The exception
will be the St. Lawrence Valley where temperatures will remain
near or below freezing all day with a persistent northeast flow.

Ahead of the cold front convection will develop with showers
reaching Chautauqua County 4-6 pm. This activity will then
expand across the CWA tonight. Elevated instability of 200 to
300 J/KG will be enough to support chances for thunderstorms
within these showers, with the best time period for
thunderstorms and a noticeable uptick in wind gusts between 04Z
and 10Z just ahead of the cold front. It will be a very mild
evening ahead of the cold front with temperatures rising into
the 50s in many areas. Temperatures will drop quickly behind the
front with overnight lows in the upper 20s near Lake Erie, and
mid 30s across the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario. The
colder air flowing over Lake Erie may bring a few snow flurries
to metro Buffalo area by sunrise.

Strong cold advection behind the cold front will force falling
temperatures through the day. The airmass will grow plenty cold
enough for a lake response by midday Friday. The setup will be much
more favorable over Lake Ontario with deeper moisture and better
synoptic scale support. Lake induced equilibrium levels there will
rise to 8-9K feet, with a favorably deep layer of dendritic crystal
growth within the cloud bearing layer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Lake effect snow will begin to ramp up Friday night.

Off Lake Ontario...expect a band of lake effect snow to develop by
late morning across central and northern Jefferson County, over or
north of Watertown. This band of snow will then intensify and move
steadily south across the Tug Hill region Friday afternoon, ending
up in southern Oswego County later Friday night. Snowfall rates may
reach 1-2 inches per hour in this band, but the latest guidance
suggests it may shift too quickly across the region to produce
warning criteria amounts. Given the expected band movement, kept
accumulations in the 4-8 inch range east of Lake Ontario. The
western end of this band may produce some accumulations in northeast
Wayne/Northern Cayuga counties Friday night as well.

Some lake effect snow may persist southeast of the lake from Wayne
to southern Oswego counties into Saturday morning before slowly
diminishing in the afternoon as a ridge of high pressure builds
across the lake.

Off Lake Erie...A drier synoptic scale airmass and extensive ice
cover on the lake will yield a much more muted lake response. Expect
scattered snow showers to develop across the Niagara Frontier Friday
morning, then gradually move south into the western Southern Tier
later Friday afternoon and Friday night. Given the marginal setup,
accumulations should be light, with a spotty inch or two.

High pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday
night with mainly dry weather and some lingering lake effect clouds
southeast of the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will drift off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday with
clouds increasing ahead of the next system. The majority of the day
will remain dry, although some light snow may develop towards
evening if the faster model solutions verify.

Model guidance begins to diverge by Sunday night with the handling
of the next system. The GFS is most aggressive with available
moisture and forcing along a cold front and associated mid level
trough Sunday night, producing a general light snow across the
entire region. The ECMWF is weaker with this system, and the GEM
even weaker still. Given the model uncertainty, kept POPs in the
chance to low likely range. Even the more aggressive GFS would just
be a minor event.

A few flurries or light snow showers may linger Monday to the south
of Lake Ontario, but a shallow inversion and dry airmass will keep
these very light.

By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week the lastest 00Z model guidance
generally agrees on another system moving through the Great Lakes,
with expected differences in track and timing details. This appears
to be another Great Lakes cutter system, with the surface low
tracking across the central Great Lakes to our north and west. This
may bring an initial area of snow on Tuesday, changing to a mix or
rain for awhile Tuesday night into Wednesday before going back to
snow later Wednesday. A system with such a track may produce another
round of gusty winds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest TAF amendments reflect more pessimistic expectation with
improvement in conditions expected to take a bit longer. There
remains a strong inversion in place, and warmer and drier air
aloft has been slow to mix out. LIFR conditions are in place
across most of the area at 14Z and these conditions should
maintain until early to mid afternoon when winds aloft increase
and begin to mix down. Expect a period of MVFR/VFR conditions
with some showers late afternoon and this evening as southerly
winds downslope and mix out the low moisture.

Attention will then be on the last 12 hours of the TAF cycle,
when a strong LLJ rides across the region, bringing LLWS up to
45 knots this evening. A strong cold front will pass by late
tonight, bringing a line of storms, possible thunder and a 1-2
hour period of surface wind gusts of 40-50 knots.

Outlook...

Friday...IFR/MVFR windy with rain to snow.

Saturday..VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain light this afternoon, veering from
northeasterly this morning around to southerly this afternoon.

An area of low pressure cutting through the Central Great Lakes, and
deepening tonight through Friday will bring gale force winds across
the eastern Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow. The stronger winds
over Lake Ontario will be enhanced a bit by a secondary cold front
Friday night...with gale force winds likely to remain on the Lake
into early Saturday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another system is expected to track to our west later today and
tonight, with another period of warmer temperatures and rain
expected. This system has the potential to produce more rainfall
from late this afternoon into tonight. This may cause
additional flooding in some areas due to rainfall and run- off,
depending on how much rainfall and how warm it gets. Due to the
convective nature of the precipitation, rainfall amounts are
still uncertain. Also, based on latest snow surveys, there still
are patches of snow in the Buffalo Creeks basin which are mainly
due to snow drifts from last week. This combined with ice
suggests there is ample Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in place to
provide decent run-off when temperatures rise into the 50s this
evening. This is reflected in the latest RFC forecasts which
brings several points above action stage, and close to flood
stage in some cases. Based on this the Flood Watch was expanded
to include the rest of Western New York.

The other wild card is if there is a lake seiche there may be
additional flow in the Niagara River which may result in an ice
jam there. Niagara County is included in the watch.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Users should be wary of unrepresentative gauge
readings with ice as hydro gauges are designed to measure for
ice free conditions. High levels seen on many of the Buffalo
Area Creek gauges are not representative of the true flow of
water. Ice buildup around the gauge can result in much higher
readings than are actually occuring on the river as a whole. For
these reasons, gauge readings due to ice jams are not counted
as records.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Winds will abruptly increase to 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots
behind a cold front shortly after midnight. This would typically
produce a seiche if Lake Erie was ice free. However, there are
significant areas of ice on the lake which makes the result
much more uncertain. Unfortunately, the amount of ice has been
difficult to determine based on satellite imagery since it has
been mostly cloudy the past several days. Based on this, a
Lakeshore Flood Advisory was not issued, but there is some risk
that there will be a lake response which will cause a rise in
water levels on eastern portions of Lake Erie in the 2-6 a.m.
timeframe. If there is enough open water for a seiche, the rise
would probably only reach advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 5 PM EST Friday for
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     Flood Watch through Friday morning for NYZ001>003-010>013-
     019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ001>006-008-010>014-085.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ007.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ007.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ004>006.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ008.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ013-
     014-019>021.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EST Friday for
     NYZ013-014-020-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
         Saturday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Friday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM
         EST Saturday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Apffel/Thomas
MARINE...Thomas
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/TMA/Thomas/Fries
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

NYZ020-021-081600-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Dense Fog Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010>012-085-081600-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Southern Erie-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.
   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-081600-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Strong winds gusting as high as 45 to 50 mph can be expected in the
wake of a cold front late tonight and Friday.

A band of lake effect snow may bring moderate snow accumulations
Friday night across northern Cayuga and northeast Wayne counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-081600-
Chautauqua-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Dense Fog Advisory.
   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-081600-
Livingston-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Dense Fog Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ014-081600-
Ontario-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Dense Fog Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-081600-
Lewis-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A band of lake effect snow may bring moderate snow accumulations
Friday and Friday night east of Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-081600-
Jefferson-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

High Wind Watch.

A band of lake effect snow may bring moderate snow accumulations
Friday and Friday night east of Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-081600-
Oswego-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A band of lake effect snow may bring moderate snow accumulations
Friday and Friday night east of Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-081600-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-081600-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-081600-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-081600-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1051 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
735 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

NYZ019>021-071500-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, and Wellsville
735 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...Patchy Dense Fog This Morning...

There will be patchy dense fog across the Western Southern Tier
this morning. Visibility will be be below a half mile in spots,
especially across higher terrain. Motorists should be prepared for
low visibility and and be prepared to slow down in areas where
visibility is poor. The fog will gradually dissipate late this
morning.

Apffel

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 AM EST THU FEB 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FREEZING RAIN    2 NE WEBSTER            43.24N  77.39W
02/06/2019  M0.10 INCH       MONROE             NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     FREEZING RAIN    NORTH TONAWANDA         43.02N  78.85W
02/07/2019  M0.20 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED 0.2 INCHES OF ICE THIS MORNING FROM THE RAIN
            YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900738
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900739

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EST THU FEB 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FREEZING RAIN    DEXTER                  44.01N  76.05W
02/06/2019  M0.30 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900740

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
826 AM EST THU FEB 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FREEZING RAIN    1 NE PENDLETON          43.12N  78.77W
02/07/2019  M0.33 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ICE ACCRETION ON TREE LIMBS AND SURFACES

0810 AM     FREEZING RAIN    SPENCERPORT             43.19N  77.81W
02/07/2019  M0.35 INCH       MONROE             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900741
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900742

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
917 AM EST THU FEB 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FREEZING RAIN    4 NE SANBORN            43.17N  78.82W
02/07/2019  M0.50 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900743

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
918 AM EST THU FEB 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FREEZING RAIN    4 NE SANBORN            43.17N  78.82W
02/07/2019  M0.50 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HALF INCH OF ICE WITH FREEZING RAIN YESTERDAY

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900743

DPK