Alert archive / New York / High Wind Watches in 2019
High Wind Watch 3, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this high wind watch at Mar 7, 2019, 4:00 PM EST for 4 counties in New York. It took effect at Mar 9, 2019, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 7, 2019, 4:00 PM EST (21:00 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 9, 2019, 7:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Mar 9, 2019, 2:48 AM EST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 963 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 69 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 223 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
503 WWUS71 KBUF 072100 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 400 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 NYZ019-085-080500- /O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0003.190310T0000Z-190311T0300Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 400 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind Watch, which is in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday evening. * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties, especially the lower terrain near Lake Erie. * TIMING...From Saturday evening through late Sunday evening. * WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. This will especially be the case along the New York State Thruway, which runs perpendicular to the forecast high winds. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage, including downed trees and power lines that could result in power outages. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ007-008-080500- /O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0003.190310T0600Z-190311T0600Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 400 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind Watch, which is in effect from late Saturday night through late Sunday night. * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties, especially the northwest facing slope of the Tug Hill and in the Black River Valley. * TIMING...From overnight Saturday night through overnight Sunday night. * WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage, including downed trees and power lines that could result in power outages. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ RSH
6 follow-up statements
808 WWUS71 KBUF 080639 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 139 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 NYZ019-085-081445- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0003.190310T0000Z-190311T0300Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 139 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties, especially the lower terrain near Lake Erie. * TIMING...From Saturday evening through late Sunday evening. * WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. This will especially be the case along the New York State Thruway, which runs perpendicular to the forecast high winds. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage, including downed trees and power lines that could result in power outages. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ007-008-081445- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0003.190310T0600Z-190311T0600Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 139 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties, especially the northwest facing slope of the Tug Hill and in the Black River Valley. * TIMING...From overnight Saturday night through overnight Sunday night. * WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage, including downed trees and power lines that could result in power outages. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$
524 WWUS71 KBUF 081427 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 927 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 NYZ019-085-090230- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0003.190310T0000Z-190311T0300Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 927 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties, especially the lower terrain near Lake Erie. * TIMING...From early Saturday evening through late Sunday evening. * WINDS...Southeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph, becoming southwest on Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. This will especially be the case along the New York State Thruway, which runs perpendicular to the forecast high winds. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage, including downed trees and power lines that could result in power outages. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ NYZ007-008-090230- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0003.190310T0600Z-190311T0600Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 927 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties, especially the northwest facing slope of the Tug Hill and in the Black River Valley. * TIMING...From overnight Saturday night through overnight Sunday night. * WINDS...Southeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph, becoming southwest on Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage, including downed trees and power lines that could result in power outages. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$
998 WWUS71 KBUF 081658 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1158 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 NYZ019-085-090100- /O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0003.190310T0000Z-190311T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0003.190310T0000Z-190311T0300Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 1158 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind Warning, which is in effect from 7 PM EST Saturday to 11 PM EDT Sunday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect. * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties, especially the lower terrain near Lake Erie. * TIMING...From early Saturday evening through late Sunday evening. * WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. This will especially be the case along the New York State Thruway, which runs perpendicular to the forecast high winds. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and could result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$ NYZ001>003-010-011-090100- /O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0003.190310T1500Z-190311T0300Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, and Batavia 1158 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday. * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties. * TIMING...From late Sunday morning through late Sunday evening. * WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and could result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$ NYZ007-008-090100- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0003.190310T0600Z-190311T0600Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 1158 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties, especially the northwest facing slope of the Tug Hill and in the Black River Valley. * TIMING...From overnight Saturday night through overnight Sunday night. * WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage, including downed trees and power lines that could result in power outages. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$
715 WWUS71 KBUF 082003 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 303 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 NYZ019-085-090415- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.190310T0000Z-190311T0300Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 303 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties, especially the lower terrain near Lake Erie. * TIMING...From early Saturday evening through late Sunday evening. * WINDS...Southeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph Saturday night becoming southwest on Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. This will especially be the case along the New York State Thruway, which runs perpendicular to the forecast high winds. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and could result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$ NYZ001>003-010-011-090415- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.190310T1500Z-190311T0300Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, and Batavia 303 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties. * TIMING...From late Sunday morning through late Sunday evening. * WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and could result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$ NYZ007-008-090415- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0003.190310T0600Z-190311T0600Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 303 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties, especially the north facing slope of the Tug Hill and in the Black River Valley. * TIMING...From overnight Saturday night through overnight Sunday night. * WINDS...Southeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph Saturday night becoming southwest Sunday afternoon and evening. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage, including downed trees and power lines that could result in power outages. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$
066 WWUS71 KBUF 082342 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 642 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 NYZ019-085-090745- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.190310T0000Z-190311T0300Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 642 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties, especially the lower terrain near Lake Erie. * TIMING...From early Saturday evening through late Sunday evening. * WINDS...South 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. This will especially be the case along the New York State Thruway, which runs perpendicular to the forecast high winds. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and could result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$ NYZ001>003-010-011-090745- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.190310T1500Z-190311T0300Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, and Batavia 642 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties. * TIMING...From late Sunday morning through late Sunday evening. * WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and could result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$ NYZ007-008-090745- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0003.190310T0600Z-190311T0600Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 642 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties, especially the north facing slope of the Tug Hill and in the Black River Valley. * TIMING...From overnight Saturday night through overnight Sunday night. * WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage, including downed trees and power lines that could result in power outages. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ RSH/Reynolds
139 WWUS71 KBUF 090748 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 248 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019 NYZ019-085-091600- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.190310T0000Z-190311T0300Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 248 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties, especially the lower terrain near Lake Erie. * TIMING...From early this evening through late Sunday evening. * WINDS...South 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. This will especially be the case along the New York State Thruway, which runs perpendicular to the forecast high winds. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and could result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$ NYZ001>003-010-011-091600- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.190310T1500Z-190311T0300Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, and Batavia 248 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties. * TIMING...From late Sunday morning through late Sunday evening. * WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts could bring down trees and powerlines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and could result in property damage, including downed trees and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should secure loose objects. && $$ NYZ007-008-091600- /O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0003.190310T0600Z-190311T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0009.190310T0600Z-190311T0600Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 248 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 1 AM EST Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect. * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties, especially the north facing slope of the Tug Hill and in the Black River Valley. * TIMING...From overnight tonight through overnight Sunday night. * WINDS...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure personal property. && $$ TMA
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high wind watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind watch went out at Mar 7, 3:21 PM EST, 39 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 7, 3:21 PM EST, 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 321 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into New York State and across the Mid- Atlantic states tonight. High pressure will provide warmer and dry conditions Friday into the first half of the weekend. A low pressure system will track across the Upper Great Lakes with rain and windy conditions for sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Visible satellite shows a mixture of sunshine and diurnally driven clouds with some scattered snow showers late this afternoon. Otherwise, of more importance regional radars are now showing an uptick in lake effect snow showers on the western end of Lake Ontario which will play a role in additional accumulating snows east of Lake Ontario tonight. As we head into the evening hours with cold WNW'erly flow backing a bit more westerly and with the full fetch of Lake Ontario now available redevelopment of the lake band should occur. With Hi.Res guidance continuing to show this lake effect snow band reforming near the south shore of lake Ontario and placing it primarily across Oswego County. However, with diurnal influence still in control late this afternoon this band will likely not get better organized until late this evening into tonight. It will also have other factors working against its organization with equilibrium levels beginning to fall and synoptic moisture slowly declining across the region. Although, it wouldn't be out the question with such a cold airmass aloft working across the lower lakes to reorganize and squeak out an additional 4-7" mainly across Oswego County for tonight. With that said, a Winter Weather Advisory has replaced the warning and now in effect until 4am Friday. Outside of the lake effect, with the loss of daytime heating any snows showers will quickly diminish in coverage across the region this evening. For tonight, surface high pressure over the upper Midwest will begin to build east and southeast into New York State and Mid-Atlantic. As high pressure build east and southeast overnight wind flow will gradually weaken and back to WSW'erly. This will over the course of the overnight hours will slowly nudge lake effect snow across Oswego northward and then diminish during the wee morning hours. Friday, with high pressure over the area and to our southeast weak warm air advection will spread into the region. Additionally, with a drier air mass moving in and subsidence will promote abundant March sunshine across both Western and North Central New York. Look for it to be much warmer with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s areawide after a chilly start to the day. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Weak high pressure will build across the region Friday night and move into New England on Saturday. This will provide dry weather throughout this period. There will be some lingering cloud cover from a system passing well to the south Friday evening, otherwise Friday night and Saturday will be mostly clear. This will provide good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night with low temperatures 5 to 15, with the coldest temperatures across the North Country. With a fresh snow pack, the forecast hedges below consensus guidance. Saturday will be warmer than it has been of late, with late afternoon highs in mid to upper 30s in most areas. A developing southerly downslope flow will help warm the lake plains of Chautauqua County into the lower 40s. The weather will become more active for the latter half of the weekend, when a storm system tracks across Wisconsin Saturday night and tracks north of Lake Huron on Sunday. The system will be a strong stacked system to start with, but will weaken as it finally passes north of our region Sunday night. This will bring a period of precipitation, warmer temperatures, and gusty winds to our region. Strong winds may become a concern with this system. The track is fairly favorable, but the system will be weakening as it gets closer. Initially a downslope wind off the Chautauqua Ridge will develop Saturday night and off the Tug Hill and into the Fort Drum on Sunday. 12Z NAM/GFS guidance are a bit stronger with the low level jet, with 65 kts down to 2k feet. This SSE flow is cross- barrier, but may coincide with the precipitation which tends to diminish winds. This is also when the surface low is stronger, with peak wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. Then winds will pick up in all areas on Sunday, behind the passage of the cold front. The environment will be better mixed, but winds aloft will only be 50-55 knots so it will take pretty good mixing to get this to the surface. This is likely to produce surface winds gusting 45 to 55 mph Sunday afternoon and evening, with the strongest winds across the Niagara Frontier and eastward to Rochester. Given the marginal nature of the event, no headlines were issued for this forecast package. The vast majority of precipitation with this system will be with a band of mid-level warm air advection aligned with a diffulent flow aloft. This will move across our region from southwest to northeast Saturday night into Sunday. The result will be a 3-6 period of precipitation, with thermal profiles suggesting rain for most locations. The one exception is across the North Country, where a slower retreat of low level cold air may allow for a brief period of snow or wintry mix at the onset. Any snow accumulations would be minor. Precipitation amounts will be modest, with model consensus suggesting most areas will get between a quarter and a half inch. Steady rain will end on Sunday, but there may be a few more showers with the passage of the cold front. Before this, temperatures will rise Saturday night and into Sunday. They should top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s before the cold front sweeps across the region during the day Sunday. The warmest temperatures will be across the lake plains due to the southerly downslope flow. Cooler air will build in behind this system on Sunday night. This will change lingering showers over to snow. Initially it will not be cold enough for lake effect, but upsloping and the passage of a shortwave will support lingering showers, especially east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will fall into the lower 30s by daybreak Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Moist cyclonic flow across the region Monday will bring snow showers...favored across higher terrain where lake enhancement and upslope flow processes occur. An additional shortwave, and increasing mid level instability, moves across the region Monday that will likely increase the coverage area of snow showers, and perhaps a few rain showers during the day Monday. Temperatures at 850 hPa will become marginally cold enough over Lake Ontario for some lake effect snow across areas east and southeast...though moisture within the snow growth zone will be brief...keeping additional snow accumulation to minor totals. Tuesday an area of high pressure will build towards the region, ending any lingering lake effect precipitation. This high pressure feature will cross the region Wednesday, that when combined with an upper level ridge axis will bring a sunny and fair weather day. Some high clouds will begin to build across the region later Wednesday ahead of an end of the week storm system. Rain from this system may reach the area late Wednesday night, though Thursday will be the better chance at this point. Temperatures Thursday will be well above normal in front of a cold front. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will mainly be found across the bulk of the region at area terminals today. The exception will be southeast of the both lakes where lake induced snow showers will create periodic MVFR-IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Tonight, the majority of the area will see VFR conditions. The only problem area will be east of Lake Ontario where residual lake effect snow will produce MVFR to IFR conditions. Friday, high pressure will settle across New York State and the Mid- Atlantic providing VFR conditions areawide. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Sunday...MVFR, rain and windy. Monday...MVFR in scattered snow showers. Tuesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories are effect from Niagara River to Mexico Bay on Lake Ontario into tonight. After that, high pressure will promote improving conditions late tonight through Saturday with light winds and wave action. && .HYDROLOGY... Cold air will continue to allow new ice to form on rivers and creeks through Friday night. Ice conditions are variable, but there is some thin ice and shore ice on some of the Buffalo area creeks. Warmer temperatures are expected from this weekend with temperatures reaching the lower 50s Sunday. Snowmelt is expected, as well as a round of rainfall Saturday night into Sunday. The amount of runoff created by rain and snowmelt is still uncertain, with thawing degree hours reaching around 300 which is marginal. Given the thin ice, this probably will be enough to break up ice on some of the Buffalo creeks, but any ice jams that do develop should be fairly quick to release. There still is some risk for ice jams, especially if temperatures are warmer or if more than a half inch of rain falls. This potential will need to be monitored closely as we draw closer. Those living near locations prone to ice jam flooding should pay close attention to water levels. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Friday for LOZ042>044. && SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...Apffel LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR HYDROLOGY...TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 7, 9:52 AM EST, 6 hours 8 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 952 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 NYZ001>003-010>012-081500- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- 952 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The is the potential for warmer temperatures and rainfall Saturday night and Sunday which could have possible impacts on area rivers and creeks, especially those that are prone to ice jam flooding. Gusty southwest winds may develop Sunday afternoon and evening as a deep area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ019-085-081500- Chautauqua-Southern Erie- 952 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The is the potential for warmer temperatures and rainfall Saturday night and Sunday which could have possible impacts on area rivers and creeks, especially those that are prone to ice jam flooding. Gusty southeast downslope winds may develop late Saturday night and Sunday morning along the Lake Erie shore and Chautauqua Ridge. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021-081500- Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany- 952 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006-081500- Oswego- 952 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a potential for a wintry mix Saturday night into Sunday, including possible freezing rain, before precipitation changes to rain with warmer temperatures later Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ007-008-081500- Jefferson-Lewis- 952 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a potential for a wintry mix Saturday night into Sunday morning, including possible freezing rain, before precipitation changes to rain with warmer temperatures later Sunday. Gusty south to southeast downslope winds may develop Sunday afternoon and evening. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible in the Black River Valley, near Fort Drum, and the north slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-081500- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 952 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
In the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 7, 10:37 AM EST, 5 hours 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 AM EST THU MAR 07 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM SNOW 3 NW ALTMAR 43.54N 76.05W
03/07/2019 M21.8 INCH OSWEGO NY SOCIAL MEDIA
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901213
DPKLocal storm report, Mar 7, 11:36 AM EST, 4 hours 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1136 AM EST THU MAR 07 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW FULTON 43.30N 76.39W
03/06/2019 M9.0 INCH OSWEGO NY CO-OP OBSERVER
24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
0800 AM SNOW SE MINETTO 43.40N 76.48W
03/07/2019 M6.5 INCH OSWEGO NY COCORAHS
24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901214
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901215
DPKLocal storm report, Mar 7, 11:49 AM EST, 4 hours 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1149 AM EST THU MAR 07 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1118 AM SNOW 3 SSW REDFIELD 43.50N 75.85W
03/07/2019 M21.0 INCH OSWEGO NY PUBLIC
STORM TOTAL SNOW
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901216
DPKThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 9:00 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Lewis | 4 hr |
| Mar 7, 1:28 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Erie | 92 min |
| Mar 7, 5:41 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Monroe, Niagara, Orleans | 79 min |
| Mar 7, 9:52 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Oswego | 22 hr |
Nearby
High Wind Watches in New York, 2019Every high wind watch in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.