Alert archive / New York / Heat Advisories in 2019
Heat Advisory 2, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this heat advisory at Jul 18, 2019, 1:54 PM EDT for 9 counties in New York. It took effect at Jul 19, 2019, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 30 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 18, 2019, 1:54 PM EDT (17:54 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 19, 2019, 12:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Jul 20, 2019, 6:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 30 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 12 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -52 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 575 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 13 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 63 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
703 WWUS71 KBUF 181754 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 154 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 NYZ001>005-013-014-190200- /O.UPG.KBUF.EH.A.0001.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.EH.W.0001.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 154 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued an Excessive Heat Warning, which is in effect from noon Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect. * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...From noon Friday through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 105 to 108 during the day Friday and Saturday. Overnight low temperatures in the low 70s with continued muggy conditions Friday night. * IMPACTS...Heat illnesses likely for those spending prolonged periods outdoors or in non-air conditioned locations. Prolonged heat is most dangerous for young children and the elderly. Car temperatures can reach lethal temperatures in minutes. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ010>012-019>021-085-190200- /O.NEW.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 154 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat Advisory, which is in effect from noon Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday. * LOCATIONS...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. * TIMING...From noon Friday through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Up to 100 during the day Friday and Saturday. Overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s with continued muggy conditions Friday night. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ006>008-190200- /O.NEW.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 154 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Heat Advisory, which is in effect from noon Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday. * LOCATIONS...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * TIMING...From noon Friday through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Up to 100 during the day Friday and Saturday. Overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s with continued muggy conditions Friday night. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$
8 follow-up statements
861 WWUS71 KBUF 190041 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 841 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 NYZ001>005-013-014-190900- /O.CON.KBUF.EH.W.0001.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 841 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...From noon Friday through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 105 to 110. * IMPACTS...Heat illnesses likely for those spending prolonged periods outdoors or in non-air conditioned locations. Prolonged heat is most dangerous for young children and the elderly. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ010>012-019>021-085-190900- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 841 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. * TIMING...From noon Friday through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100 to 104. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ006>008-190900- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 841 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * TIMING...From noon Friday through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...95 to 104. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ TMA
849 WWUS71 KBUF 190736 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 336 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 NYZ001>005-013-014-191545- /O.CON.KBUF.EH.W.0001.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 336 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...From noon today through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 105 to 108. * IMPACTS...Heat illnesses likely for those spending prolonged periods outdoors or in non-air conditioned locations. Prolonged heat is most dangerous for young children and the elderly. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ010>012-019>021-085-191545- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 336 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. Highest Heat Index values across lower elevations inland from Lake Erie. * TIMING...From noon today this through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100 to 103. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ006>008-191545- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 336 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * TIMING...From noon today this through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ Hitchcock/JM
867 WWUS71 KBUF 191548 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1148 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 NYZ001>005-013-014-200000- /O.CON.KBUF.EH.W.0001.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 1148 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...From noon this through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 110. * IMPACTS...Heat illnesses likely for those spending prolonged periods outdoors or in non-air conditioned locations. Prolonged heat is most dangerous for young children and the elderly. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ010>012-019>021-085-200000- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 1148 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. Highest Heat Index values across lower elevations inland from Lake Erie. * TIMING...From noon this through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 105. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ006>008-200000- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.190719T1600Z-190720T2200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1148 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * TIMING...From noon this through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$
519 WWUS71 KBUF 191917 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 317 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 NYZ001>005-013-014-200330- /O.CON.KBUF.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 317 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...Through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Expect heat index values the rest of this afternoon near 100 degrees. Low temperatures will only fall to 75 to 80 degrees tonight. Heat index values will reach as high as 105 degrees on Saturday. * IMPACTS...Heat illnesses likely for those spending prolonged periods outdoors or in non-air conditioned locations. Prolonged heat is most dangerous for young children and the elderly. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ010>012-019>021-085-200330- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 317 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. Highest Heat Index values across lower elevations inland from Lake Erie. * TIMING...Through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Showers and thunderstorms and cloud cover will keep heat index values from reaching must beyond 90 degrees into this evening. Low temperatures will only fall to 75 to 80 degrees tonight. Heat index values will reach as high as 100 degrees on Saturday. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ006>008-200330- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 317 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * TIMING...Through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 95 degrees the rest of this afternoon and as high as 100 degrees on Saturday. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy Friday night, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$
812 WWUS71 KBUF 200009 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 809 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 NYZ001>005-013-014-200900- /O.CON.KBUF.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 809 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...Through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 105. * IMPACTS...Heat illnesses likely for those spending prolonged periods outdoors or in non-air conditioned locations. Prolonged heat is most dangerous for young children and the elderly. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy tonight, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ010>012-019>021-085-200900- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 809 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. Highest Heat Index values across lower elevations inland from Lake Erie. * TIMING...Through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy tonight, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ006>008-200900- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 809 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * TIMING...Through early Saturday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. Temperatures will remain very warm and muggy tonight, preventing non-air conditioned buildings from cooling off. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ TMA
137 WWUS71 KBUF 200747 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 347 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 NYZ006-201600- /O.UPG.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ /O.EXA.KBUF.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Oswego- Including the city of Oswego 347 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued an Excessive Heat Warning, which is in effect until 6 PM EDT this evening. This upgrades the Heat Advisory which was previously in effect. * LOCATIONS...Oswego county. * TIMING...Through early this evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 105. * IMPACTS...Heat illnesses likely for those spending prolonged periods outdoors or in non-air conditioned locations. Prolonged heat is most dangerous for young children and the elderly. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ001>005-013-014-201600- /O.CON.KBUF.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 347 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...Through early this evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 105. * IMPACTS...Heat illnesses likely for those spending prolonged periods outdoors or in non-air conditioned locations. Prolonged heat is most dangerous for young children and the elderly. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ010>012-019>021-085-201600- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 347 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. Highest Heat Index values across lower elevations inland from Lake Erie. * TIMING...Through early this evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ007-008-201600- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 347 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties. * TIMING...Through early this evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ Hitchcock
630 WWUS71 KBUF 201439 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1039 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 NYZ001>006-013-014-202200- /O.CON.KBUF.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston- Ontario- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 1039 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * TIMING...Through early this evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 110. * IMPACTS...Heat illnesses likely for those spending prolonged periods outdoors or in non-air conditioned locations. Prolonged heat is most dangerous for young children and the elderly. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ010>012-019>021-085-202200- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 1039 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. Highest Heat Index values across lower elevations inland from Lake Erie. * TIMING...Through early this evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$ NYZ007-008-202200- /O.CON.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 1039 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...Jefferson and Lewis counties. * TIMING...Through early this evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...As high as 100. * IMPACTS...Prolonged exposure or any strenuous activity may lead to heat related illnesses that require immediate medical attention. Vehicle interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Never leave children, pets or the elderly unattended in parked vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check in on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. when possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. && $$
751 WWUS71 KBUF 202201 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 601 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 NYZ001>006-013-014-202315- /O.EXP.KBUF.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston- Ontario- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 601 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS EXPIRED... While it will remain very humid through the evening hours, temperatures have lowered this early evening to allow the heat indices to fall below warning criteria. $$ NYZ007-008-010>012-019>021-085-202315- /O.EXP.KBUF.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T2200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville 601 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this heat advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heat advisory went out at Jul 18, 10:29 AM EDT, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 10:29 AM EDT, 3 hours 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1029 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of low clouds and some patchy fog this morning will give way
to some sunshine by this afternoon, with just a few isolated showers
and thunderstorms inland from the lakes. Oppressive summer heat and
humidity will then build into the region Friday through the weekend
with a few brief rounds of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front
is expected to cross the area by Sunday night, allowing for a break
from the heat and humidity by early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The low stratus will mix out into a cumulus field by midday.
The cumulus may remain rather congested through much of the day
inland from the lakes given the abundant boundary layer moisture
available. Limited surface based instability may support a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along and
inland of the lake breeze boundaries. The best chance of this
will be found east of Lake Ontario where a passing weak mid
level shortwave will provide some large scale ascent. Converging
lake breeze boundaries may also produce an isolated shower or
thunderstorm just north/east of Buffalo this afternoon. The
greatest amount of sunshine will be found close to the
lakeshores this afternoon as stable lake shadows develop. It
will be quite muggy again today with dewpoints in the upper 60s
to around 70. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s in most
locations, yielding a heat index in the upper 80s to around 90
at lower elevations away from lake influences.
Any isolated convection will end this evening as the boundary layer
stabilizes with sunset. This will leave partly cloudy skies for the
early part of the overnight. Late tonight a 30-40 knot low level jet
will begin to approach from the central Great Lakes, tied to the
northeast extension of an EML plume. Greater instability will be
advected towards the eastern Great Lakes late tonight beneath the
EML. The combination of increasing instability, increasing
convergence on the nose of the low level jet, and an approaching
convectively enhanced mid level shortwave will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms towards daybreak Friday. A few higher
resolution models even suggest a weakening MCS reaching our area by
daybreak Friday. It will be a warm and muggy night, with lows in the
lower 70s in most areas, and mid to upper 60s in the cooler Southern
Tier valleys and east of Lake Ontario.
As the core of the oppressively hot airmass advects across the Lower
Great Lakes, max temperatures can be expected to reach the low to
mid 90s for the majority of the forecast area Friday afternoon.
Readings will be several degrees lower in the lake cooled air in
the immediate Buffalo suburbs, across the higher terrain and also
in the Thousand Islands region. This heat, combined with tropical-
like dew points in the mid 70s, will support stifling heat index
values possibly as high as 105-107. Heat Advisories can be expected
for the entire region both days, with the risk for Excessive Heat
Warnings for some of the counties bordering the south shore of
Lake Ontario, as well as the typically warmer locations across
the western Finger Lakes region. The Excessive Heat Watch
currently in effect for the latter still looks good, and will
not be adding any additional counties to the watch with this
package.
Precip chances will increase from the northwest late tonight/
early Friday morning. Models continue to advertise the possibility
for a convectively enhanced shortwave/MCS to potentially ride
southeast from the Upper Great Lakes to near western NY by Friday
morning. Convection looks fairly impressive over the Upper Great
Lakes earlier Thursday night, however it appears as though it
will be in a weakened state by the time it reaches our region
Friday morning. That said, it would give parts of the region a
chance for some rain/possible storm during the morning. Otherwise,
after a mainly dry midday, there will be a renewed chance for
showers and thunderstorms along and inland of any lake breeze
boundaries, with a bit better chance for convection across western
NY later in the day as a weak shortwave moves across the Lower
Great Lakes. Any convection late Friday will wane for the most
part during the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating,
however can't rule out an isolated shower/storm through the
overnight within this very humid airmass.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...Dangerously Oppressive Heat Continues A Little Longer...
An expansive 594dm sub tropical ridge extending from Bermuda back
across the eastern half of the country to Baja California will
continue to emersed the majority of the country in a sweltering sauna
of heat and high humidity through at least the first half of the
weekend. Interestingly...the ridge is not especially unusual. Rather
it is the 'perfect storm' of several variables coming together...
primarily anomalous temperatures below 10k ft and extraordinarily
high PWAT values coinciding with the thermal solstice. Its one thing
to have H7/H85 temperatures 2 to 3 STD above normal...and its quite
another to have that occur during the climatological max period of
the year. These values have return intervals of 10 to 20 years for
this point in summer.
All of that being said...ensemble guidance (GEFS/SREF) continues to
hammer home the forecast of 20-22 C air at H85 for Friday night and
Saturday with some deterministic guidance as high as 24c. Unlike
Friday when there could be some MCS remnants in the morning to delay
insolation...cloud cover on Saturday should not be an issue in
getting the heat started. Additionally...we will get a head start on
the dangerous heat due to the fact that Friday night will be at
least 5 deg f warmer than the previous night. Specifically...mins
Friday night will ONLY be in the mid 70s across the western counties
with max temps Saturday ranging from the upper 80s across the North
Country...higher terrain and lake cooled areas to 90-95 inland
across the lake plains. When mid 70 dew points are factored in...
heat indices will Saturday afternoon will generally range from 100
to 105. This will EASILY support widespread heat advisories with the
very real threat for Excessive Heat Warning conditions.
In regards to pcpn...there will be two areas of convection to
contend with Friday evening. The first will be weakening lake breeze
driven thunderstorm activity across the Southern Tier...and the
second will be storms supported by a convectively enhanced shortwave
moving southeast from southern Ontario. Will use high chc to likely
pops to cover these areas...both of which will either die off or
pass through the region by 06z. The important note with this
convection is that it will occur within/near an EML plume...
something that we have been pointing out for the past several days.
The origin of this elevated instability can be seen on this mornings
KLBF and KABQ soundings. During the course of the next 36 to 48
hours...this instability (lapse rates >7 deg c/km) will be advected
across the northern plains to the Great Lakes (as per HYSPLIT
trajectory forecasts at the 700-500mb level). This will certainly
have the ability to enhance the above described convection.
Mainly dry weather is then expected from the second half of Friday
night through the bulk of Saturday. While there will be the
potential for some showers and thunderstorms south and east of
Buffalo and Rochester late Saturday afternoon...the next round of
convection will be largely driven by the first of two cold fronts
that will be approaching from southern Ontario. The first of these
fronts will pass through the region Saturday night and will take the
edge off the heat for the second half of the weekend. The second
front will usher in the true relief for the new work week...but
thats getting ahead of ourselves.
The initial cold front will press south across our region Saturday
night. Will carry high chc pops during the first half of the night
for the associated convection with diminishing pops for the
overnight into Sunday morning. Steep mid level lapse rates may still
be in place early...so will have to remain vigilant for more strong
thunderstorm activity.
As the first fronts stalls over Pennsylvania on Sunday...the
secondary cold front will make its across Lake Ontario. Subsidence
between the two boundaries SHOULD provide a six hour period of mainly
convection free weather over the region...but timing this relatively
narrow window will be difficult. May just broad brush chc pops for
now and await more clear cut guidance before fine tuning. In either
case...temperatures will be several degrees lower on Sunday with the
mercury topping out in the mid to upper 80s. While it will still be
quite warm...lower humidity levels should help to make things a
little more tolerable.
High pressure centered over the northern plains Sunday night will
settle south across the Mississippi Valley Monday and Monday night.
This will usher cooler and notably drier air across all of the Great
Lakes region...allowing our temperatures to drop back to below
normal levels. Monday should prove to be a beautiful day!
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This period will feature a broad upper level trough over the Great
Lakes and Northeast, while the aforementioned Canadian high settles
southeastward to the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic states. For our
area this will lead to a continuation of pleasantly cooler and less
humid weather, with daytime highs averaging out in the mid to upper
70s, and nighttime lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Surface dewpoints settling into the 50s will make for quite
comfortable mid summer conditions. While weak disturbances
periodically rotating through base of the mean upper level trough
could touch off a few isolated to widely scattered showers both
Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly dry weather should otherwise prevail.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm, muggy airmass combined with wet ground following the rain
yesterday will continue to support patchy fog and areas of low
stratus this morning. While breaks in the clouds can be seen on
satellite, IFR conditions will last at KBUF, KIAG and KJHW through
15z. The low stratus will mix out to MVFR and eventually VFR by
midday to early afternoon. VFR will then prevail for the rest of
today and tonight. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon along and inland of lake breeze boundaries,
with the best chance of this east of Lake Ontario. Any thunderstorm
may produce local/brief MVFR to IFR, but VFR will prevail the vast
majority of the time.
The isolated showers and thunderstorms will end this evening.
Another area of showers and thunderstorms will approach from
Southern Ontario late tonight, possibly reaching the area by
daybreak Friday with another round of local/brief MVFR to IFR
conditions in the heavier showers.
Outlook...
Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few brief
rounds of showers and thunderstorms with associated local MVFR to
IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will remain light today and tonight, generally 10 knots or
less. Southwest winds will increase Friday and Saturday, averaging
15 knots on lakes Erie and Ontario. This will produce choppy
conditions at times, although winds and waves will likely remain
below Small Craft Advisory levels.
There will be a chance of a few scattered thunderstorms at times
Friday through the weekend. Any thunderstorm may produce locally
higher winds and waves.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for NYZ001>005-013-014.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/HSK
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...JM/JJR/RSH
AVIATION...Hitchcock/HSK
MARINE...HitchcockHazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 5:03 AM EDT, 8 hours 51 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 503 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 NYZ001>005-013-014-190915- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- 503 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Excessive Heat Watch. A few brief rounds of thunderstorms are expected Friday through Sunday night. A few of these storms may be severe, with isolated damaging winds and torrential downpours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006>008-010>012-019>021-085-190915- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 503 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Oppressive heat and humidity will move into the region Friday through Saturday. The peak of the sultry conditions will be on Friday and Saturday when apparent temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 90s to the low 100s. Heat Advisories may be needed Friday through Saturday. A few brief rounds of thunderstorms are expected Friday through Sunday night. A few of these storms may be severe, with isolated damaging winds and torrential downpours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-190915- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 503 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. A few brief rounds of thunderstorms are expected Friday through Sunday night. A few of these storms may produce gusty winds and locally higher waves. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf Hitchcock
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 18, 9:52 AM EDT, 4 hours 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM HEAVY RAIN OSWEGO EAST 43.46N 76.49W
07/17/2019 M2.24 INCH OSWEGO NY CO-OP OBSERVER
RAINFALL FROM 5:00 AM TO 4:00 PM ON 7/17
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1901390
SJWThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 1:54 PM EDT | Excessive Heat Warning | BUF | Cayuga, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, Ontario, Orleans and 2 more | 52 hr |
Nearby
Heat Advisories in New York, 2019Every heat advisory in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.