Gale Watch 13, NWS Buffalo, NY

277 
WHUS71 KBUF 100148
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
848 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

LOZ045-101000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.191210T0900Z-191211T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0013.191211T1500Z-191212T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
848 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west to 30 knots and 
  waves 6 to 9 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, west to 35 
  knots and waves 7 to 10 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 4 AM to 10 PM EST 
  Tuesday. For the Gale Watch, from Wednesday morning through 
  Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ044-101000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.191210T0900Z-191211T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0013.191211T1500Z-191212T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
848 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO
1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west to 30 knots and 
  waves 6 to 9 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, west to 35 
  knots and waves 7 to 10 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM 
  EST Wednesday. For the Gale Watch, from Wednesday morning 
  through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ020-101000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.191210T0300Z-191210T1500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
848 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-101000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.191210T0300Z-191212T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
848 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.191210T0600Z-191211T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
848 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West to 30 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-101000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.191210T0900Z-191211T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
848 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO
1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West to 30 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-101000-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0013.191211T1500Z-191212T0300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
848 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...West to 35 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

127 
WHUS71 KBUF 100902
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
402 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

LOZ045-101715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191211T0300Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0013.191211T1500Z-191212T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0017.191211T2000Z-191212T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
402 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west to 35 knots and waves 9 to 
  12 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 15 
  to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 3 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST 
  Thursday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM EST this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-101715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191211T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0013.191211T1500Z-191212T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0017.191211T2000Z-191212T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
402 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west to 35 knots and waves 10 to 
  13 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 15 
  to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 3 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST 
  Thursday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST 
  Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-101715-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0013.191211T1500Z-191212T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0017.191211T1800Z-191212T0300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
402 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West to 35 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-101715-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0013.191211T1500Z-191212T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0017.191211T2000Z-191212T0600Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
402 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West to 35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-101500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191210T1500Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
402 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-101715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191212T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
402 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191211T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
402 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-101715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191211T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
402 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1249 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the central Great Lakes today with
above normal temperatures and rain showers, followed by colder air
and lake effect snow showers for mid week. High pressure will move
across the region and bring a return to dry weather for Thursday
night and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Steady rain has moved into far western New York early this
afternoon, and this area will continue to spread across the
rest of the area through this afternoon. Temperatures are mainly
in the 40s across the region, with the warmest in areas
favorable to a southerly downslope where afternoon temperatures
will be near 50.

An upper level trough will dig across the Great Lakes region through
tonight, while a surface low strengthens as it tracks across the
central Great Lakes today and into southwestern Quebec by tonight. A
south-southwest low level jet of 45-50 knots will provide warm air
and moisture advection and favorable jet dynamics will support a
round of widespread rain. Rainfall amounts heavily influenced by
upsloping, with higher resolution guidance showing localized amounts
exceeding an inch, while the majority of the area will get between a
half inch and an inch of rain. The steadiest rain will be this
afternoon/evening, then will taper off from west to east tonight.

Temperatures will be well above normal during the period with
temperatures remaining warm through this evening with readings
in the 40s and even some lower 50s near the Lake Erie shoreline
where downslope warming will be most pronounced. The cold front
will enter western New York late tonight with southwesterly
winds gusting to 35-45 mph. This front may also produce an
additional round of rain showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A still deepening surface low will move across central and northern
Quebec on Tuesday, with a trailing cold front crossing the eastern
Great Lakes early in the morning. The majority of the large scale
forcing and moisture transport will be associated with the warm
advection regime well ahead of the cold front. The actual cold front
will only produce a few brief showers as it moves east across the
area early in the day. Developing upslope flow will allow showers to
linger a little longer across the higher terrain east of Lakes Erie
and Ontario. Precipitation will change over to wet snow in these
upslope areas, but any accumulation will be minimal. Temperatures
will still be in the 40s before daybreak, but will drop through the
30s during the day with moderately strong cold advection in the wake
of the cold front. Wind gusts will reach around 30 knots in the
morning northeast of the lakes in the wake of the cold front.

A weak secondary cold front will move south into the area late
Tuesday afternoon and evening. This feature may produce an uptick in
snow showers along the south shore of Lake Ontario as it captures a
weak lake convergence band and moves it onshore. This may produce
some light accumulations southeast and east of Lake Ontario.
Following this secondary front, shear and dry air will likely force
Lake Ontario lake effect to end completely for a time overnight
Tuesday night. Off Lake Erie, the close proximity of surface high
pressure will continue to introduce dry air and shear in the
boundary layer, greatly limiting lake effect potential despite
deepening cold air. Expect nothing more than a few snow showers
Tuesday night across the western Southern Tier. Accumulations will
be light Tuesday night, with no more than an inch or two southeast
of the lakes.

Wednesday a mid level trough and associated clipper low will pass
well north of the area, with the clipper cold front crossing the
eastern Great Lakes during the mid to late afternoon. The cold front
itself will do little, with nothing more than a few light snow
showers. It will introduce a more favorable lake effect environment
however. Convergence along the advancing cold front will merge with
pre-existing lake induced convergence over both lakes, resulting in
intensifying bands of lake effect snow. Lake induced equilibrium
levels will briefly rise to 10-12K feet with the passage of the
clipper as moisture improves and a pool of cold air aloft crosses
the eastern Great Lakes. A favorably deep mixed phase layer will be
located within the cloud bearing layer, yielding dendritic growth.

Off Lake Erie...

Expect a band of relatively light lake effect snow showers to move
north out of the Southern Tier and across Buffalo in the morning,
ending up north of Buffalo across the Northtowns and Niagara County
by late morning. This band will begin to move back south and east
across the area by early to mid afternoon as the cold front reaches
eastern Lake Erie. The band will intensify as it crosses the Buffalo
area from a boost of synoptic support from the cold front, and
increasing lake induced instability. The strong band will then move
onshore from Buffalo all the way down to Chautauqua County and push
inland through the Southern Tier through the late afternoon. The
band of snow will continue for a few hours across the western
Southern Tier Wednesday evening before quickly weakening as
inversion heights lower, shear increases, and moisture decreases
with high pressure building over Lake Erie.

The fast pace of the southward band drift will greatly limit
accumulations, even though the band of snow may become quite heavy.
Early estimates suggest 2-4 inches from the Buffalo Metro area into
portions of Genesee County, and 3-5 inches across the higher terrain
of Southern Erie/Wyoming counties into the Chautauqua Ridge. Even
though amounts will be limited, if the brief burst of heavy snow
materializes it would produce very difficult travel for a few hours.
Winds will also gust 30-35 knots around this time, producing blowing
and drifting snow.

Off Lake Ontario...

Expect a similar trend just a few hours later. Tuesday morning
disorganized lake effect snow showers over the lake will push to the
northeast end to near Kingston Ontario, possibly clipping Cape
Vincent in northern Jefferson County. The band of snow will then
intensify during the mid to late afternoon as the cold front
approaches and synoptic support/instability improve. This
intensifying band of snow will then move southeast across Jefferson
County, crossing the Tug Hill region during the evening. The band
will reach maximum intensity during this time frame as the best lake
parameters line up with a period of upslope flow across the Tug
Hill. The band will continue to march steadily southeast overnight,
with a WNW to ESE oriented band of weakening lake snow moving into
northern Cayuga/Wayne counties. A few snow showers may also clip the
south shore farther west overnight from eastern Niagara to Monroe
counties as boundary layer flow veers.

Similar to Lake Erie, the short residence time of the band in any
one location will limit accumulations. Expect 2-4 or 3-5 inches
across the lower elevations of the eastern Lake Ontario region, with
up to 6 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau. Wayne and northern
Cayuga counties may see a few inches overnight. While amounts are
not overly impressive, this band may produce difficult travel for a
few hours with heavy snow and 30-35 knot wind gusts producing
blowing and drifting.

Thursday a few lake effect snow showers may linger in the morning
southeast of Lake Ontario with minor additional accumulations. High
pressure will then build east across the eastern Great Lakes, ending
the lake effect snow and bringing some partial clearing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will move east off the east coast Thursday night. Warm
advection in its wake will bring an increase in clouds across the
eastern Great Lakes, but any precipitation will stay well north of
the region. Warm advection continues Friday as a mid/upper level
ridge builds into the northeast states. The warm advection will
produce some cloud cover, but dry weather will continue. After a
chilly start, temperatures will warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s
in most areas.

A complex system will then cross our region this weekend. A southern
stream trough will support low pressure developing over the Gulf
coast Friday. The resulting low will move almost due north, with one
low center moving up the west side of the Appalachians and into the
eastern Great Lakes by Saturday, with a second weak lee side low
moving up the eastern seaboard. This southern stream trough will
phase with a northern stream trough moving towards the western
lakes, allowing an expansive area of deep layer ascent to move north
across our area late Friday night and Saturday. This will produce
another round of rain areawide. There is a small chance the rain may
start as a wintry mix across the North Country if precipitation
begins early enough, otherwise this looks to be an all rain event as
temperatures warm into the 40s on Saturday.

The northern stream portion of this phasing system will then cross
the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday, producing
additional chances of rain and wet snow showers as colder air moves
back into the region. Highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ongoing warm air advection will support increasing low level
moisture with rain rapidly spreading across the region from
west to east. Ceilings will lower quickly with the arrival of
the rain. Southerly downsloping will limit the drop to MVFR
ceilings at most locations with the exception of KJHW which does
not benefit from this downsloping.

Winds will shift to the SSW and briefly diminish ahead of a
frontal boundary this evening. This may allow KBUF/KIAG to
briefly drop to IFR in lower cigs and possibly fog. Fog also is
likely at KJHW where LIFR conditions are expected. The also
will be a period with LLWS ahead of this boundary at most TAF
sites.

Winds will shift to the WSW and rapidly increase behind the cold
front which will move through the area between 07Z and 12Z.
There may be some lingering rain or snow showers across higher
terrain. Cigs will gradually lift to the MVFR/VFR flight
category through Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday...MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow
showers possible late.
Wednesday...IFR within lake effect snow east of the lakes.
Thursday...VFR with localized IFR in lake effect snow showers
east of the lakes.
Friday...VFR.
Saturday...MVFR. Rain likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A windy period is expected through much of the week as a strong
cold front crosses the area Tuesday, followed by moderate
westerlies Tuesday night through Thursday night. It is possible
that winds will approach gale force on Lake Ontario on
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A period of warmer temperatures will cause snow melt which will
add to run-off from rain on today through Tuesday. For most
basins, rainfall amounts will be less than an inch and the snow
pack in place is limited, resulting in little risk for
flooding.

There is a bit more snow pack in place in the Black River basin,
with Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) values in the 1-2 inch range.
Model guidance shows a bit more QPF here, with 1-2 inches across
localized favorable upslope regions. Latest RFC forecast has
Boonville reaching action stage by late Tuesday, with Watertown
poised to reach it just beyond the forecast period. This is in
line with latest MMEFS ensembles which show a fairly high
likelihood that these points will reach action stage but very
low probabilities of flooding.

Based on this, have maintained a mention of this risk in the
HWO. The most likely outcome remains action stage, but the
situation bears watching. The greatest risk is if temperatures
are warmer than expected. If this happens then the additional
snow melt would be a concern, but for now there is not enough
confidence to issue any flood headlines.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
         Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST
         Wednesday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA/Zaff
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Apffel/TMA/Zaff
MARINE...Apffel/TMA
HYDROLOGY...Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
114 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

NYZ012-019-020-085-101815-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
114 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Much colder air will pour into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Relatively light lake effect snow is
expected Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning. Lake effect
snow will then move north of the area briefly during the middle of
the day Wednesday before moving back south into the area late
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Moderate accumulations are
expected. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph Wednesday may also produce
blowing and drifting snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-011-101815-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
114 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Much colder air will pour into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Lake effect snow will initially develop
south of the area Tuesday night. Lake effect snow will move north
into the Buffalo and Batavia areas for a time on Wednesday, with
moderate accumulations possible. The lake effect snow will move back
south of the area by early Wednesday evening. Wind gusts of 30 to 40
mph are expected Wednesday, which may result in blowing and drifting
snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-013-014-021-101815-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
114 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-101815-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
114 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Much colder air will pour into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Relatively light lake effect snow is
expected Tuesday evening. Lake effect snow will then move north of
the area later Tuesday night through Wednesday, before moving back
south into the area Wednesday night. Light to moderate accumulations
are possible.

The combination of high lake levels and wave action may result in
flooding along the lakeshore Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-101815-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
114 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The combination of rainfall and snow melt will result in rises on
the Black River and its tributaries. Although crests will most
likely be around action stage at forecast points, there is a chance
for minor flooding along the Black River Tuesday and Wednesday.

The combination of high lake levels and wave action may result in
flooding along the lakeshore Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Much colder air will pour into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Relatively light lake effect snow is
expected Tuesday evening. Lake effect snow may intensify later
Wednesday afternoon through the first half of Wednesday night with
moderate accumulations possible. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph may
produce blowing and drifting snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-043-SLZ022-024-101815-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
114 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-062>065-101815-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
114 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf