Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

388 
WGUS61 KBUF 250253
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
953 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...Tropical Storm Force Winds to Lift Ice into the Niagara
River...

.An intense storm system moving into western Quebec overnight will
continue to generate winds in excess of 50 mph across the Lower 
Great Lakes into at least the initial daylight hours of Monday. 
These strong winds will continue to funnel Lake Erie ice down the
Niagara River. This will keep a threat for additional ice jam
flooding in place anywhere along the upper reaches of the Niagara
River, from Buffalo Harbor to the approach of Niagara Falls.

NYZ001-010-251200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-190225T1200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Northern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Buffalo
953 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York...including the following 
  counties...Niagara and Northern Erie. 

* Until 7 AM EST Monday.

* Very strong winds of 40 to as high as 65 mph will push Lake Erie
  ice down the Niagara River. Water levels on the Niagara River
  will continue to fluctuate because of the influx of lake ice 
  and the resulting jamming. 

* Areas susceptible to flooding from rising water on the Upper 
  Niagara River include the Grand Island shoreline, Cayuga 
  Island in Niagara Falls, and the river shoreline between North 
  Tonawanda and Niagara Falls. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means the threat of flash flooding exists
along rivers and creeks. If you are in the watch area you should
monitor weather conditions closely. Be ready to move to higher
ground if flooding is observed or a warning is issued. Stay tuned
to weather radio or other radio and tv stations for further
updates.

&&

$$

936 
WGUS61 KBUF 251148
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
648 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019


NYZ001-010-251300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-190225T1200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Niagara-Northern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Buffalo
648 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of western New York has been
cancelled. An area flood warning for near the Niagara River will
be in effect. 

$$

Thomas

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
352 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system north of Lake Huron will track into western
Quebec tonight, then into the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. This
system will produce powerful wind gusts across the region through
tonight and into Monday morning, while also driving much colder air
back across our region. The increasingly colder air flowing across
the lakes will bring bands of lake effect snow tonight, that when
combined with the still strong winds will create significant blowing
snow east of the Lakes, with blizzard conditions expected east of
Lake Ontario. Surface high pressure will then build into the region
Tuesday and relieve the area of the strong winds and snowfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of late afternoon...impressively strong surface low pressure was
located north of Lake Huron...with its trailing cold front and
attendant band of moderate to heavy rain showers now in the process
of cutting across the North Country. Behind this there is a bit of a
break in the precip...with wraparound/orographically-induced snow
showers found further west across the Southern Tier. Much more
significantly...winds have rapidly ramped up into the High Wind
Warning range across western New York in the wake of the cold
front...and these will spread further eastward across the remainder
of the region over the next couple of hours. This has ushered/will
usher in a prolonged period of high impact weather across our
region...the details on which follow below.

Winds...

This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 mb
temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees Celsius through the day),
forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail
(down to 500 mb) across the region will transport very strong winds
down to the surface, beginning this afternoon and continuing through
tonight and early Monday morning. As the 1.5 PV tail crosses the
region this afternoon behind a strong cold front, and 65 knots of
wind flow between 1K and 2K feet, wind gusts at the surface will
approach 75 mph downwind of Lake Erie and across the Lake Plain.
This 3-5 hour period just behind the cold front is when we could see
these 75 mph wind gusts.

Behind the cold front this evening winds will continue from the
southwest-west direction with continued gusts 60 mph and greater.
What will also make this wind event concerning will be the prolonged
period of damaging winds, with gusts over 60 mph possible for about
a 12 hour period. This lengthy period of winds battering the region
could increase the severity of this wind event. Strong winds will
persist into tonight, this will be more of a west to west-northwest
direction as the surface low tracks across southern Quebec. As winds
veer to west-northwesterly late tonight there may be a subtle uptick
in the wind gusts along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline and
through the Genesee Valley.

Winds may still be gusting to 60 mph or greater Monday morning
southeast of Lake Ontario from Rochester eastward to Oswego County,
and possibly across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier
and western Finger Lakes. These areas typically see their highest
gusts with a WNW wind direction. Winds will then gradually back off
through the course of the day. Winds will more dramatically drop off
shortly after sunset as diurnal mixing subsides and stronger winds
aloft begin to move away.

Temperatures...

Temperatures will briefly rise into the 50s for a very short time
just ahead of the front, then free fall behind the front as strong
cold advection takes hold. The first hour after the cold front many
areas will see a 15F drop. Temperatures will drop below freezing
across far Western NY by late afternoon.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s, with
temperatures 12Z Monday morning some 20 to 30F degrees cooler than
where they were 24 hours prior.

Highs on Monday will reach the mid 20s on the lake plains and around
20 across higher terrain.

Snow...

The 850 mb temperatures will plummet to -15C over the Lakes which
will increase the instability and generate lake effect snow.  As
lake effect snow parameters become increasingly favorable, bands of
snow will form to the east and then southeast of the Lakes.

On Lake Erie...A few snow flakes are possible late this afternoon,
but it will not be until the early evening that the lake effect snow
begins to take root east of Lake Erie. There will likely be slivers
of open water, in addition to sensible heat flux through thin or
broken ice waters. Even with open lake water this is not a
particularly favorable setup, and the majority of the snow will be
from upslope flow and synoptic scale convergence rather than lake
effect processes.

The greatest snow accumulations tonight will be across the Boston
Hills, western Wyoming County, and the Chautauqua Ridge. Here 2 to 4
inches of snow will fall, though measuring this snow will be quite
difficult as strong winds will create blowing and drifting. These
winds, combined with cellular bursts of snow will create brief white-
out conditions at times. Farther north, expect 1-3 inches of
accumulation across Northern Erie and Genesee counties including
Buffalo and Batavia with brief whiteout conditions with bursts of
snow showers and blowing snow.

On Lake Ontario...A blizzard warning will continue for the region,
starting this evening and going through Monday afternoon. Lake
induced equilibrium levels are expected to increase to around 8-9K
feet which will be plenty tall enough for lake effect snow to form.
On a westerly flow wind convergence from both the north and south
shoreline of Lake Ontario will create enough lift for either
clusters of snow, or a band of lake snow.

This snowband, or fractured bands of snow within the strong wind
field, are expected to first impact Jefferson and northern Lewis
counties this evening, with a slow veering to the winds bringing the
concentration of snow down across the upslope Tug Hill region, and
eventually farther south into Oswego County late tonight and Monday
morning. During the day Monday the boundary layer flow will continue
to slowly veer more WNW, carrying the lake effect snow slowly south
across Oswego County. The snow may eventually clip northern Cayuga
County and northeast Wayne counties.

Total accumulations will reach 6-10 inches across the higher terrain
of the Tug Hill with a significant upslope component, with 3-6
inches in the surrounding lower elevations through late Monday
afternoon.

The worst blizzard conditions will focus on the Tug Hill region,
including southern Jefferson, northern Oswego, and western Lewis
counties where the snow will be most persistent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will continue southeast of the lakes Monday
night. The response off Lake Erie will be very muted, with only
a few flurries and light snow showers lingering across the
higher terrain southeast of the lakes with little additional
accumulation. Conditions will continue to be more favorable off
Lake Ontario. Boundary layer flow will continue to veer slowly
to the NW with a band of lake effect snow across Oswego County
early in the evening dropping south and west across Northern
Cayuga and Wayne counties. These areas may see 2-4 inches of
accumulation in the evening along with some blowing and drifting
snow. Once the boundary layer flow passes about 290 degrees the
lake effect snow will break up into multiple bands across the
entire southern shore from Niagara to Cayuga counties including
the Rochester area, and extending into the western Finger Lakes.
The snow will weaken by this time, with 1-2 inches of
accumulation overnight.

Winds will drop significantly around sunset with the loss of
diurnal mixing and as winds aloft begin to drop off. Blowing
snow will persist into the evening southeast of the lake before
diminishing overnight.

A few lake effect flurries or light snow showers will continue
southeast of Lake Ontario through Tuesday morning before high
pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes, with associated
subsidence and drying allowing the lake effect snow to end.

Temperatures will be quite cold with lows Monday night and
Tuesday night generally in the teens, with single numbers east
of Lake Ontario. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower 20s, with
teens across higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario.

Forecast uncertainty increases by Wednesday. The GFS has been
very persistent over the past few days in bringing a notable
clipper system across the Great Lakes, with a shield of
accumulating snow crossing our region. The ECMWF has been
equally persistent in keeping this feature much weaker and
suppressed, with no more than a few light snow showers in our
area. The Canadian GEM continues to be a compromise solution
with a light snowfall across the region. Given the continued
model uncertainty, will keep POPS in the chance range for now.
If this snow does materialize, it will end later Wednesday night
as the system moves to the eastern seaboard.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday will be mostly precipitation free until the late evening
when a weak disturbance approaches the area. Thursday night into
Friday, a weak shortwave trough will cross the area with chance POPs
for most areas, except the North Country where forcing looks a
little less favorable, and therefore will have slight chance POPs.
Precipitation will start out as snow showers and mix with rain
during the day on Friday across the lower elevations as temperatures
warm.

A strengthening area of low pressure will track from the western
Ohio Valley and cross the Central Great Lakes Friday night into
Saturday afternoon. With this system precipitation will overspread
the area, initially as snow then changing to rain as warm air
advection increases ahead of an accompanying cold front. Winds
behind this area of low pressure will increase and wind headlines
may be needed for Sunday. Behind this area of low pressure a large
trough will persist through this time period with the potential for
snow showers across the area and lake effect snow off of both lakes,
especially the more ice free Lake Ontario, where a multi lake
connection looks possible.

High temperatures will start out around 30 on Thursday for most
areas and warm to the mid 30s on Friday and to the low 40s for
Saturday. Temperatures on Sunday will drop to the low to mid 20s by
Sunday behind the passing cold front. Low temperatures on Thursday
and Friday night will be in the low to upper 20s across the area
with some teens over the higher terrain of the North Country on
Thursday night. Temperatures will be in the low to mid teens for
Saturday and Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong cold front and its band of moderate to briefly heavy rain
showers will finish crossing the North Country through 22z...with
ongoing very strong winds across western New York rapidly spreading
across the remainder of the region in its wake. Gusts of 50-60 knots
will be commonplace...with a few peak gusts of up to 65 knots
possible late this afternoon and this evening.

Colder air building across the region will transition the rain to
lake effect snow by early evening. Snow, combined with the still
strong winds will create blowing snow that will bring a period of
LIFR or lower visibilities. Snow and blowing snow will initially be
near KBUF/KART but as winds veer to west and eventually west-
northwest tonight these intensifying lake effect snows and areas of
blowing snow will be south of KBUF/KART, and be in the vicinity of
KJHW.

Winds will continue to be strong overnight with gusts across the
Lake Plain possibly nearing 60 knots occasionally. Longest duration
of high winds will likely be at KROC, where late tonight and Monday
morning a west to northwest direction off Lake Ontario will maintain
strong wind gusts.

Winds will gradually back off through the day Monday but remain very
gusty. Lake effect snow showers across the higher terrain east of
Lake Erie including KJHW will slowly diminish. Lake effect snow
southeast of Lake Ontario will continue to produce local IFR Monday
and Monday night, eventually focusing near KFZY.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR with local IFR in scattered lake effect snow showers.
Wednesday...A chance of IFR in snow.
Thursday...VFR, with local IFR in scattered lake effect snow showers.
Friday...MVFR with a chance of rain/snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A deepening area of low pressure will track into western Quebec
through tonight. This low, combined with strong cold air
advection...strong LLJ aloft and a tight pressure gradient will
yield sustained storm force winds on the Lakes, and gales across the
Niagara River. Winds could gust to 65 knots at times on the Lakes
through tonight. These storm force winds are expected to continue
through the night, and linger through the morning hours of Monday on
Lake Ontario. These winds will generate significant wave heights of
25 feet on Lake Ontario, with an occasional wave over 30 feet. Storm
Warnings are in effect for both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Winds will
gradually back off through the day Monday, dropping below gales by
mid afternoon on Lake Erie, and by mid evening on Lake Ontario.

A heavy freezing spray warning is in effect for Lake Ontario for
later tonight through Monday night. The combination of strong winds,
high waves and temperatures falling below freezing will result in
heavy freezing spray on vessels.

It will not be until Tuesday night when a surface high pressure
nears the region that winds and waves will diminish back to fair
boating weather.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Powerful winds gusting up to 75 mph will result in significant
water rises in the eastern basins of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
late this afternoon and tonight.

Along the Lake Erie shore...lakeshore flooding is expected, and
this is likely to be a high end event. Guidance suggests the
water level at Buffalo may exceed 11 feet above low water datum.
The wildcard is how much the lake ice will restrict the seiche.
During a modest wind event a few days ago, satellite imagery
showed the ice on Lake Erie moving, suggesting it is not fast
ice and the wind will be able to move the water and ice
significantly.

As a result, this may impact some locations which are not
typically impacted. For reference, warning criteria is 8 ft. If
the water level at Buffalo exceeds 10 feet above low water
datum, flooding may occur at Fuhrmann Boulevard, Canalside and
in the Old First Ward section of Buffalo.

In addition, rises will break up ice in place on the lake, and
this will get pushed onto shoreline areas likely causing
damage to the immediate lakeshore, including the Buffalo Harbor
and Buffalo waterfront. Ice chunks may damage structures, and
even get pushed into rivers and creeks flowing into Lake Erie. Ice
will also get pushed across the Niagara River Ice Boom into the
Upper Niagara River likely causing damage along shoreline areas
of the Upper Niagara River.

The highest water levels will be this afternoon and early evening.

Along Lake Ontario...Significant water rises and high waves are
expected to impact shoreline areas from Oswego county to the
Saint Lawrence River. Ice in place, especially at the northeast
end extending to the Saint Lawrence River will get pushed onto
shoreline areas likely causing damage. Areas which may be
particularly vulnerable to flooding and ice damage are Sandy
Pond, Black River Bay, Chaumont Bay, and the Thousand Islands
Region of the Saint Lawrence River. Ice blocks will get pushed
onshore, and possibly into rivers and creeks flowing into Lake
Ontario. While Lake Ontario does not respond as dramatically to
a lake seiche, guidance suggests a 2 foot rise across the
eastern end of the Lake. This combined with waves which may
reach 25 feet is likely to have a major impact on the immediate
lakeshore.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ001-010-
     019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ006-007.
     Blizzard Warning until 4 PM EST Monday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ010-011.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 AM Monday to 4 AM EST
         Tuesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JJR
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JJR
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JJR
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA/Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

NYZ008-251145-
Lewis-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Blizzard Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Blizzard Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-007-251145-
Oswego-Jefferson-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Blizzard Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Blizzard Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-013-014-021-251145-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-003-251145-
Orleans-Monroe-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-251145-
Niagara-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-251145-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ011-251145-
Genesee-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-251145-
Northern Erie-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-251145-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-251145-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>044-062>064-251145-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM
EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.
   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.
   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ045-065-251145-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM
EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.
   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.
   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-251145-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-251145-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
644 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BROCKPORT               43.21N  77.94W
02/24/2019                   MONROE             NY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE VALLEY VIEW DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900937

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CHEEKTOWAGA             42.91N  78.75W
02/24/2019                   ERIE               NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES WALDEN AVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900938

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG EAST AURORA             42.77N  78.62W
02/24/2019                   ERIE               NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON GROVER STREET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900939

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
421 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BLASDELL                42.80N  78.83W
02/24/2019                   ERIE               NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN IN THE TOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900940

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
434 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-250100-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Orchard Park,
and Springville
434 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

...DANGEROUS WINDS AND FLASH FREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

Very strong and damaging winds will continue late this afternoon
and early this evening from the Lake Erie shore northeastward
across the Niagara Frontier and Genesee Valley, including the
Buffalo and Rochester areas. Peak wind gusts will reach 75 mph at
times.

Winds of this magnitude will result in extensive damage to trees
and power lines, widespread power outages, and property damage to
roofs and siding. Buildings which are under construction and older
deteriorating buildings may experience significant damage or even
collapse.

This is a particularly dangerous situation! If you must travel be
prepared for extensive damage and downed power lines. Always
assume power lines are live. Falling trees and power lines will
create a very dangerous environment to be outside in, including in
vehicles. Seek shelter in a substantial building until the
strongest of the winds begin to subside.

In addition to the very strong winds, temperatures will also fall
below freezing as we progress through the late afternoon and
early evening hours. This will result in the rapid freezing up of
water on untreated roadways, leading to areas of ice that could
make travel hazardous, particularly on bridges and overpasses. If
you must travel, be sure to slow down and exercise caution.

Hitchcock/JJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
440 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HILTON                  43.29N  77.79W
02/24/2019                   MONROE             NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900941

AR