Alert archive / New York / Beach Hazards Statements in 2019

Beach Hazards Statement 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

June 13, 2019Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this beach hazards statement at Jun 13, 2019, 10:31 PM EDT for Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York. It took effect at Jun 14, 2019, 12:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 20 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jun 13, 2019, 10:31 PM EDT (02:31 UTC)
In effect from
Jun 14, 2019, 12:00 AM EDT
Expired
Jun 14, 2019, 7:37 PM EDT
In force
20 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-06-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 8 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-06-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 7 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-17 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
852 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

339 
WHUS41 KBUF 140231
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1031 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

NYZ001-002-141045-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0007.190614T1200Z-190614T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
1031 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM
EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara and Orleans counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of record high lake 
  levels and moderately strong west winds will result in greater 
  wave action and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the 
  shoreline of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...From 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will increase, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ003>007-141045-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0007.190614T1400Z-190615T0200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
1031 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM
EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and 
  Jefferson counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of record high lake 
  levels and strong west winds will result in greater wave 
  action and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the shoreline 
  of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...From 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will increase, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ019-141045-
/O.NEW.KBUF.BH.S.0003.190614T0400Z-190615T0000Z/
Chautauqua-
1031 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Beach
Hazards Statement, which is in effect through Friday evening.

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Chautauqua county.

* TIMING...Through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$

NYZ010-085-141045-
/O.NEW.KBUF.BH.S.0003.190614T0700Z-190615T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
1031 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Beach
Hazards Statement, which is in effect from 3 AM EDT Friday
through Friday evening.

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Erie county.

* TIMING...From 3 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$

TMA
5 follow-up statements
301 
WHUS41 KBUF 140841
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
441 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

NYZ001-002-141645-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0007.190614T1200Z-190614T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
441 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS
MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara and Orleans counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of record high lake 
  levels and moderately strong west winds will result in greater 
  wave action and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the 
  shoreline of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...From 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will increase, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ003>007-141645-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0007.190614T1400Z-190615T0200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
441 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and 
  Jefferson counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of record high lake 
  levels and strong west winds will result in greater wave 
  action and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the shoreline 
  of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will increase, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ019-141645-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0003.000000T0000Z-190615T0000Z/
Chautauqua-
441 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Chautauqua county.

* TIMING...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$

NYZ010-085-141645-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0003.000000T0000Z-190615T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
441 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Erie county.

* TIMING...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$
416 
WHUS41 KBUF 141420
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1020 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

NYZ001-002-142100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190614T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
1020 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara and Orleans counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of record high lake 
  levels and moderately strong west winds will result in greater 
  wave action and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the 
  shoreline of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will continue, especially in bays,
  inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. Wave 
  action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ003>007-142230-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190615T0200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
1020 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and 
  Jefferson counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of record high lake 
  levels and strong west winds will result in greater wave 
  action and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the shoreline 
  of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will increase, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ019-142230-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0003.000000T0000Z-190615T0000Z/
Chautauqua-
1020 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Chautauqua county.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$

NYZ010-085-142230-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0003.000000T0000Z-190615T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
1020 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Erie county.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$
903 
WHUS41 KBUF 141850
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
250 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

NYZ001-002-142100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190614T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
250 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara and Orleans counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of record high lake 
  levels and moderately strong west winds will result in greater 
  wave action and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the 
  shoreline of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will continue, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ003>007-150200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190615T0200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
250 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and 
  Jefferson counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of record high lake 
  levels and strong west winds will result in greater wave 
  action and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the shoreline 
  of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will continue, especially in bays,
  inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. Wave 
  action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ019-150000-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0003.000000T0000Z-190615T0000Z/
Chautauqua-
250 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Chautauqua county.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$

NYZ010-085-150000-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0003.000000T0000Z-190615T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
250 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Erie county.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$
666 
WHUS41 KBUF 142038
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
438 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

NYZ001-002-142145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190614T2100Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
438 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the
Lakeshore Flood Warning.

$$

NYZ003>007-150200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190615T0200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
438 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and 
  Jefferson counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of record high lake 
  levels and strong west winds will result in greater wave 
  action and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the shoreline 
  of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will continue, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ019-150000-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0003.000000T0000Z-190615T0000Z/
Chautauqua-
438 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Chautauqua county.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$

NYZ010-085-150000-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0003.000000T0000Z-190615T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
438 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Erie county.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$
639 
WHUS41 KBUF 142337
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
737 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

NYZ010-019-085-150045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.BH.S.0003.000000T0000Z-190615T0000Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
737 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Beach
Hazards Statement.

$$

NYZ003>007-150200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190615T0200Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
737 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and 
  Jefferson counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of record high lake 
  levels and strong west winds will result in greater wave 
  action and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the shoreline 
  of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will continue, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this beach hazards statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this beach hazards statement went out at Jun 13, 7:42 PM EDT, 2 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 13, 7:42 PM EDT, 2 hours 49 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
742 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A deepening storm system that will slowly pass to our west and north
will produce widespread showers tonight into Friday morning. Gusty
winds in the wake of this system will help to gradually dry us out
Friday afternoon, but unfortunately more showers can be expected
during the upcoming weekend. This will especially be the case on
Sunday when a cold front will temporarily stall over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Regional radar is depicting multiple areas of showers and some
thunderstorms rotating around an upper level trough this evening.
Unsettled conditions will continue across western and north central
NY through Friday morning with gusty westerly winds through Friday.

A negatively tilted mid-level trough is centered over the Great
Lakes region while surface low pressure is located over southern
Ontario. Showers will continue to move northward across western and
north central New York through this evening.

A cold front will enter the region tonight and occasional showers
will continue. Moisture will linger across the higher elevations
across western New York and east of Lake Ontario which is where the
best chance of showers will be overnight. The southwest winds will
become westerly behind the frontal passage by Friday morning. Winds
will increase shortly after daybreak and wind gusts of 30-35 mph are
expected across western and north central New York. Clouds will
erode from west to east through the day with high temperatures
reaching the low to mid 60s across the higher elevations to the
upper 60s to low 70s across the lake plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sharp upper level trough will be centered from James Bay to northern
Ontario on Friday night. Multiple shortwaves will be rotating around
the upper trough. Lead shortwave slides into western Quebec late
Friday night while another shortwave and increasing upper level jet
bring showers to the central Great Lakes. Main sfc front Friday
night will reside from western Quebec to the Upper Mississippi River
valley. Though mid clouds thicken across the forecast area,
strongest moisture advection and convergence closer to sfc low stay
north of here in Quebec, so think though a few light showers could
occur closer to Lake Ontario and perhaps far western NY, most of the
area remains dry. Lows will be in the 50s.

Cloudy day on Saturday though still staying on breezy side as sw
winds gust to 30 mph, possibly higher over the Niagara Frontier if
there is any thinning in the overcast. Will keep pops mainly slight
chance for Saturday morning, then increase pops later as the front
and moisture advection ramps up in the afternoon and early evening.
Likely pops for showers Saturday night still look on track as sfc
front and axis of deep moisture transport/advection slides across
western New York to the Finger Lakes region. Majority of models then
indicate while main focus for showers slips just south of Niagara
Frontier to east of Lake Ontario, a secondary wave of low pressure
(tied to shortwave currently heading across WY) rides along sfc
front late Saturday night into Sunday morning which may enhance
showers over Southern Tier toward the Finger Lakes. Some instability
closer to the front, though majority of even elevated instability is
forecast to remain back upstream over the Ohio Valley. Heavy rain
possible with PWATS by that time over 1.5 inch along the boundary on
the nose of a 35-40 kt low-level jet. Maybe another lull, even over
the Southern Tier later during the day on Sunday.

Then, yet another shortwave in this very active pattern will bring
another round of showers and possible thunderstorms from especially
western NY toward the Finger Lakes Sunday night, expanding into
north central NY on Monday. Likely pops look appropriate with that
system closer to the Southern Tier in better proximity of the
stalled out frontal boundary.

Temperatures for the weekend should be reasonable, with highs mostly
in the lower 70s. Could end up a bit cooler on Sunday though with
front/more showers more over the region, especially north of the
front toward Lake Ontario. Temperatures on Monday will be highly
dependent on extent of clouds and showers. 70s will work for now,
though later adjustments may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After the unsettled weather of the three days leading up to this
period...it still looks as if a relative break will ensue for
Tuesday and Wednesday as a wedge of surface-based ridging and
associated drier air builds across our region. While some isolated
to widely scattered showers cannot be completely ruled out...mainly
dry weather should predominate through Wednesday.

Unfortunately...current indications are that more unsettled
conditions will make a return by Thursday...as the medium range
models are in general agreement on another disturbance/possible
attendant surface wave passing near or over our region near the end
of the period. This should result in renewed chances for showers as
we push closer to the end of the work week.

With respect to temperatures...daytime highs should average out near
normal levels in the 70s throughout this period...while nightly lows
will mostly be in the mid to upper 50s...or a little above normal for
mid-June.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A dynamic system will bring multiple rounds of showers to the
terminals through Friday morning. Chances for thunder will be
very low. A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs are expected across the
terminals through 04z. CIGS will lower to MVFR and IFR after
04z.

A cold front will cross the terminals tonight and winds will rapidly
pick up after daybreak Friday. Southwest-west winds with gusts 30-35
kts are expected through the early afternoon especially across
western NY. Clouds and showers will linger the longest at KART and
winds will not be as strong.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...VFR to MVFR in scattered showers.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A slow moving area of low pressure over southern Ontario drifts
to the Ottawa Valley by daybreak Friday then slides across
southern Quebec on Friday while gradually weakening. This will
set the stage for some relatively strong winds on both lakes
late tonight through most of Friday.

Winds will become southwest later tonight and increase to 15-20 kts
initially on Lake Erie and by daybreak Friday on Lake Ontario. Winds
will become west and increase further Friday morning, with winds
increasing to 20 kts on Lake Erie and up to 25 kts on Lake Ontario.
Winds diminish late Friday afternoon and evening as the system
weakens. Small craft advisories have been issued for all marine
areas, including the Niagara River.

Looking ahead, strong and gusty sw winds up to 20 kts with higher
gusts are expected on Saturday ahead of a approaching front. Looks
likely that we will need additional Small Craft advisories for
portions of the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A deepening area of low pressure will pass to the west and north of
Lake Ontario tonight, then will exit across southern Quebec on
Friday. Winds in the wake of this winter-like storm system will
become westerly and increase to 15 to 25 knots.

The significant freshening of the winds will couple with strong cold
advection to support a substantial increase in wave heights during
the day Friday. Winds will then subside from west to east late
Friday and Friday night, as high pressure will nose north from
the Mid Atlantic region.

The combination of the increased wave action and record high lake
levels will lead to flooding along the south shore of Lake Ontario
on Friday. A Lakeshore Flood Warning is in effect as outlined below.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lakeshore Flood Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ003>007.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 PM EDT
         Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSK/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...JLA/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RSH/HSK/TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 13, 2:45 PM EDT, 7 hours 46 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
245 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

NYZ008-010>014-020-021-141845-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-
245 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-141845-
Niagara-Orleans-
245 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-141845-
Monroe-
245 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>007-141845-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
245 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-141845-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
245 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-141845-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
245 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 13, 5:28 PM EDT, 5 hours 3 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
528 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

NYZ002-003-011-132215-
Orleans-Genesee-Monroe-
528 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ORLEANS...MONROE
AND NORTHEASTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 526 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Brockport,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Chili, Brockport, Hilton, Webster,
Brighton, Gates-North Gates, Le Roy, Spencerport, Churchville,
Holley, Riga, Clarendon, Charlotte, Bergen, Strong Memorial Hospital,
North Chili and Rochester International Airport.

This includes Interstate 90 near exit 47.

Welch
Special weather statement, Jun 13, 5:58 PM EDT, 4 hours 33 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
558 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

NYZ003-132215-
Monroe-
558 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY...

At 556 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Greece, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Gates-North Gates and Charlotte.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

TMA
Special weather statement, Jun 13, 6:20 PM EDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
620 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

NYZ003-004-132245-
Wayne-Monroe-
620 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WAYNE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

At 619 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Irondequoit to near Brighton to near
Henrietta. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
line of storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Irondequoit, East Rochester, Webster, Fairport, Brighton,
Ontario, Penfield, Williamson, Sodus, Walworth, Pittsford, Union
Hill, West Walworth, East Williamson and Pultneyville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

TMA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 14, 7:37 PM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF21 hr

Nearby

Beach Hazards Statements in New York, 2019Every beach hazards statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.