Alert archive / New York / Beach Hazards Statements in 2019

Beach Hazards Statement 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

May 20, 20195 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this beach hazards statement at May 20, 2019, 4:23 AM EDT for 5 counties in New York. It took effect at May 20, 2019, 11:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 20, 2019, 4:23 AM EDT (08:23 UTC)
In effect from
May 20, 2019, 11:00 AM EDT
Expired
May 21, 2019, 4:38 AM EDT
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 16 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 13 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-05-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 36 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-05-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 19 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
36 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-148 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1980 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

031 
WHUS41 KBUF 200823
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
423 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

NYZ007-201630-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.190520T1800Z-190521T1200Z/
Jefferson-
423 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of very high lake levels 
  and moderate westerly winds will result in greater wave action 
  and an increase in lakeshore flooding potential on the eastern 
  portion of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...From 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding may increase, especially in bays, 
  inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. Wave 
  action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-201630-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.190520T2100Z-190521T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
423 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of very high lake levels 
  and moderate westerly winds will result in greater wave action 
  and an increase in lakeshore flooding potential on the eastern 
  portion of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...From 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding may increase, especially in bays, 
  inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. Wave 
  action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-201630-
/O.NEW.KBUF.BH.S.0001.190520T1500Z-190521T0400Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
423 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Beach
Hazards Statement, which is in effect from 11 AM EDT this morning
through this evening.

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* TIMING...From 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-201630-
/O.NEW.KBUF.BH.S.0001.190520T1700Z-190521T2200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
423 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Beach
Hazards Statement, which is in effect from 1 PM EDT this
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* TIMING...From 1 PM EDT this afternoon through Tuesday 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
827 
WHUS41 KBUF 201425
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

NYZ007-202230-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.190520T1800Z-190521T1200Z/
Jefferson-
1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of very high lake levels
  and moderate westerly winds will result in greater wave action
  and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the eastern portion of
  Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...From 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will increase, especially in bays,
  inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. Wave 
  action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-202230-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.190520T2100Z-190521T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of very high lake levels
  and moderate westerly winds will result in greater wave action
  and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the eastern portion of
  Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...From 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will increase, especially in bays,
  inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. Wave 
  action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-202230-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0001.190520T1500Z-190521T0400Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* TIMING...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-202230-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0001.190520T1700Z-190521T2200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* TIMING...Through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
291 
WHUS41 KBUF 202035
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
435 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

NYZ007-210445-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190521T1200Z/
Jefferson-
435 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of very high lake levels 
  and moderate westerly winds will result in greater wave action 
  and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the eastern portion 
  of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...Until 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will increase, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-210445-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.190520T2100Z-190521T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
435 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of very high lake levels 
  and moderate westerly winds will result in greater wave action 
  and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the eastern portion 
  of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...Until 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will increase, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-210400-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-190521T0400Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
435 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Erie and Chautauqua counties.

* TIMING...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-210445-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-190521T2200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
435 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* TIMING...Through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$
215 
WHUS41 KBUF 210221
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1021 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

NYZ010-019-085-210330-
/O.CAN.KBUF.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-190521T0400Z/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1021 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Beach
Hazards Statement.


$$

NYZ007-211030-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190521T1200Z/
Jefferson-
1021 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of very high lake levels 
  and moderate westerly winds will result in greater wave action 
  and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the eastern portion 
  of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...Until 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will increase, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-211030-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190521T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
1021 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of very high lake levels 
  and moderate westerly winds will result in greater wave action 
  and an increase in lakeshore flooding on the eastern portion 
  of Lake Ontario.

* TIMING...Until 11 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will increase, especially in 
  bays, inlets, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. 
  Wave action will produce an increase in shoreline erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-211030-
/O.CON.KBUF.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-190521T2200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
1021 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Beaches of Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* TIMING...Through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents and dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when there is a high swim
risk. This means life threatening waves and currents are
expected. Stay out of the water and stay away from dangerous
areas like piers and breakwalls.

&&

$$
Reynolds
085 
WHUS41 KBUF 210838
CFWBUF

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
438 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

NYZ001>003-210945-
/O.CAN.KBUF.BH.S.0001.000000T0000Z-190521T2200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
438 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Beach
Hazards Statement.

$$

NYZ007-211200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190521T1200Z/
Jefferson-
438 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...As moderate westerly winds and greater
  wave action gradually diminish, expect the more significant
  lakeshore flooding hazard to diminish later this morning. 

* TIMING...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will decrease through the day.
  Lingering impacts will occur, especially in bays, inlets, and
  other low lying areas along the shoreline. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-211500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190521T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
438 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...The combination of very high lake levels
  and moderate westerly winds will result in greater wave action
  and an a continuation of lakeshore flooding on the eastern
  portion of Lake Ontario. Expect the more significant lakeshore
  flooding hazard to ease by midday as winds and waves gradually 
  diminish.

* TIMING...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding will decrease later today. 
  Lingering impacts will occur, especially in bays, inlets, and 
  other low lying areas along the shoreline. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lakeshore Flood Warning means lakeshore flooding is occurring,
is imminent, or is expected to occur. People in the warning area
should take immediate action to protect life and property. Listen
to local radio...television...or NOAA Weather Radio for further
information.

&&

$$

JLA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this beach hazards statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this beach hazards statement went out at May 20, 4:13 AM EDT, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 20, 4:13 AM EDT, 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
413 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and humid conditions remain in place early this morning ahead
of a cold front that is currently crossing lower Michigan. Showers
that roamed the area overnight along a pre-frontal trough have
pretty much exited except over far eastern sections of forecast
area. Could see a few more showers develop today just ahead of the
cold front mostly to the east of the Genessee Valley toward areas
east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, strong and gusty westerly winds
develop by this aftn once the cold front moves through. Some areas
may see gusts over 40 mph late this afternoon. Once the winds
diminish tonight, possible that some locations over the Western
Southern Tier see temps drop to below 40F. Expect this return to
cooler and drier conditions to last through first part of Wednesday
as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Primary upper level trough from James Bay to Upper Lakes focuses
over James Bay through this afternoon. Two additional shortwaves
within the mean trough, one currently sliding across eastern Lake
Erie and another crossing WI will keep the threat for showers going
especially for areas east of the Genessee Valley to east of Lake
Ontario later this morning into mid afternoon, though with lake
stabilization developing off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, these
showers may end up mostly south and east of our forecast area. There
could also be a small chance for a tsra or two east of Lake Ontario
this afternoon due to daytime heating and marginal sfc based CAPE.
No severe weather is expected due to such marginal instability.

Attention late this morning into the afternoon turns to cold frontal
passage and especially the strong and gusty westerly winds expected
just in wake of the front. If it were not for abundant bkn-ovc
strato cu clouds that will continue to expand across the area today
per NAM, GFS and RAP forecast soundings, would be more concerned
about deeper mixing and thus winds reaching advisory level across
much of Western NY toward the Lake Ontario shoreline. Ultimately,
think the clouds will cut down on mixing and the 45-50kt winds seen
on BUFKIT soundings aoa 900mb/2kft will not mix down fully. No
enhancing isallobaric component to wind to aid in stronger winds as
well. Even so though, with the gradual cold air advection aloft
especially above 800mb and stronger winds aloft, kept the idea of
previous shifts that we could see wind gusts 35-45 mph this
afternoon. Any substantial/prolonged clearing over what is expected
would enhance the risk of seeing gusts over 45 mph and this will
have to be watched today. Temperatures today will stay steady in the
upper 50s to lower 60s closer to Lake Erie as developing westerly
winds will put breaks on additional warming. Temps could still reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s over the south and eastern portions of
the forecast area, warmest toward the western Finger Lakes region.

Winds gradually diminish tonight and it looks the strato cu clouds
will also diminish as sfc low over Quebec drifts farther away.
Clearing skies and diminishing winds will allow temps to drop off
into the lower 40s which obviously is quite the change from what we
are seeing this morning. Temps may even drop into the upper 30s over
the Western Southern Tier and over the higher terrain to east of
Lake Ontario. If temps drop that low, certainly could be some patchy
radiation/ground fog. For now, put a mention in the favored valleys
of the Western Southern Tier where there would be the best chance
for winds to decouple.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday the closed upper level low will now be near Maine, with a
cool northerly flow starting the day off across our region. With
moisture greatly depleted within the lower atmosphere, this upper
level low will produce just a deck of clouds across the Tug Hill
region during the first half of Tuesday, while bright sunny skies
start Tuesday across WNY. There may be a little fog across the river
valleys of the Southern Tier Tuesday morning, otherwise mainly clear
skies will persist through the day and through Tuesday night. These
clear skies Tuesday night and light winds with the axis of a surface
high pressure crossing our region will allow for excellent
radiational cooling conditions. This will allow for temperatures to
drop down into the low to mid 40s across the region, with upper 30s
found across the traditionally colder spots of SW NYS. Here isolated
frost cannot be ruled out.

Wednesday the upper level ridge will begin to strengthen across our
region in response to heat building across the SE under the center
of a 592dm high pressure ridge. This will continue to yield mainly
dry conditions Wednesday, and with 850 hPa temperatures climbing
towards the low double digits Celsius...afternoon surface high
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 60s. An easterly wind
will keep cool Lake Erie and Lake Ontario air temperatures at bay,
and may even allow for a few low 70s across the northern Niagara
Frontier. A weak shortwave passing through the Great Lakes region,
and dampening as it encounters this building upper level ridge of
high pressure may bring a few showers to WNY late Wednesday and
Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A sprawling 500 hPa ridge that will build to heights of 594 dm will
continue to take residence over the southeast U.S. through the long
term period. A deepening trough over the west coast and
intermountain west will initiate active weather over the western
half of the country. Active weather from the western trough will
trek northeast over the southeast ridge resulting in mostly weak
waves of low pressure to pass over/near the western and north
central NY area for most of this period.

The first wave of showers and possible thunderstorms will come
Thursday as a weak wave rides southeastward across the eastern Great
lakes. The greater coverage area for storms will likely move through
our region around Saturday from this activity. Dewpoints Saturday
will likely surpass 60F, giving a touch of humidity to the airmass.

Temperatures Thursday through Sunday will be around to above normal,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR restrictions are forecast overnight. A few MVFR ceilings
or visibilities are possible into Monday morning as a few showers
move through the terminals, but these restrictions should be brief.
A cold front will move through producing a few showers Monday. It
will become windy, with gusts of over 30 knots from late morning
through the afternoon, especially northeast of Lake Erie.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over Georgian Bay will slide to southern Quebec through
this afternoon while slightly deepening. A cold front tied to the
low swings across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this afternoon. Once
the front moves through, expect westerly winds up to 25 kts on both
lakes with small craft conditions developing. Higher observation
platforms on Lake Ontario may even see brief gale force gusts.
Stronger winds will slowly diminish this evening, but will not
become light until Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure ridge
builds from Upper Great Lakes to the Eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes through
this afternoon as low pressure moves to southern Quebec.
Southwest winds will increase around midday across Lake
Ontario, then become more westerly during the afternoon and
evening following the cold frontal passage. The increase in
westerly winds will bring higher waves on Lake Ontario,
combining with very high lake levels to bring an increased risk
of lakeshore flooding on the east half of Lake Ontario.

For Monroe, Orleans, and Niagara counties, the westerly winds
will be shore parallel through tonight, which will likely not
increase lakeshore flooding and erosion as much as the eastern
portion of the lake.

There is still is a slight chance that the winds may become
more northwest late tonight and Tuesday. For the most part the
models keep more of a westerly flow. Thus, the lakeshore flood
warning will only be continued for the eastern end of the lake
at this time and the western half of the lake will continue to
be watched as further guidance rolls in.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lakeshore Flood Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NYZ007.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NYZ004>006.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Tuesday afternoon for NYZ001>003.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
         evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT
         this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM
         EDT this evening for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
         Tuesday for LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
         Tuesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to
         midnight EDT tonight for SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JLA
NEAR TERM...JLA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Fries/HSK/Thomas
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...JLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/Fries/HSK/JLA
Hazardous weather outlook, May 19, 6:14 PM EDT, 10 hours 9 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
614 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

NYZ008-010>014-019>021-085-202215-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
614 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-202215-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
614 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

West to northwest winds will increase late Monday night and Tuesday.
This may increase the risk of higher waves and lakeshore flooding
along the south shore of Lake Ontario, although there remains some
uncertainty as to how strong winds will be during this time frame.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-202215-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
614 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-202215-
Jefferson-
614 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-202215-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
614 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 19, 8:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFJefferson, Lewis, Oswego48 min
May 19, 9:53 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBUFJefferson, Oswego52 min

Nearby

Beach Hazards Statements in New York, 2019Every beach hazards statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.