Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
418 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): KBRO Doppler radar imagery
currently shows a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms over
neighboring Mexico and threatening the CRP CWFA at this time. If the
movement of this cluster continues towards the southeast, it may
have the potential to affect the BRO CWFA within the next few hours.
Indeed, the Day 1 (12 UTC Friday to 12 UTC Saturday) Convective
Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) places Zapata, Jim
Hogg, Starr, and most of Brooks County in a Slight Risk of Severe
Weather, with the remainder of Brooks County and all of Hidalgo,
Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron County in a Marginal Risk. The main
severe weather threats for Friday and Friday night are expected to
be large hail and damaging winds per the SPC, and this has been
inserted into the official forecast for Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. Given the Slight Risk of severe weather for a portion
of the BRO CWFA through the next 24 hours, the possibility of a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions or all of Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley will need to be monitored for by
successive shifts.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): Unsettled weather
will be possible through early next week as mean 500 mb troughing
continues over the western portions of the CONUS and a stationary
front persists over Texas. A series of weak short waves will move
over deep south Texas within the west to southwest mid level
flow. Models continue to differ on the strength and timing of
these mid to upper level features. The latest ECMWF continues to
indicate higher probabilities of convection across the CWA than
the GFS suggests, as the GFS keeps the surface boundary farther
north of the CWA along with the higher POPS.

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms may linger across the
western portions of the CWA early Saturday night. The combination
of the stalled frontal boundary to our north and daytime heating
should support some convection across the area on Sunday. Rain
chances return Monday and Monday night as the next short wave
moves overhead. Rain chances decrease Tuesday night through
Thursday but will maintain a slight chance of convection due to
model differences. Rain chances increase again by late week as
another short wave approaches. The Storm Prediction Center /SPC/
severe weather outlook for Saturday night through Thursday (days
2-7) do not indicate severe convection for our CWA at this time.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average with 80s
and 90s for the daytime and 70s overnight.

&&

.MARINE (Now through Saturday): Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast
winds around 16 knots gusting to around 19 knots with seas slightly
over 5.5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 250 CDT/750 UTC. Small
Craft Exercise Caution conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas
Coast today and tonight due to a combination of winds and seas.
Lighter winds and lower seas and anticipated for Saturday courtesy
of a weaker surface pressure gradient.

Saturday Night through Tuesday Night: A stationary front across
central Texas will support an enhanced pressure gradient along the
lower Texas coast through the period. Light to moderate winds and
moderate seas are expected to continue through the rest of the
weekend and into early next week. Small Craft Exercise Caution or
Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Monday night
through Wednesday as winds increase and seas build.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  74  87  74 /  30  40  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          87  75  91  74 /  30  40  30  20
HARLINGEN            91  73  90  73 /  30  40  30  20
MCALLEN              92  74  91  74 /  30  40  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      92  73  90  72 /  30  40  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  75  81  75 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...66
Long Term...63
Graphicast/Upper Air...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
630 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ248>257-351-353-041100-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
630 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley until 1 PM CDT this afternoon
for the possibility of thunderstorms producing large hail and
damaging winds.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches
Saturday and again Monday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any observations of large hail and damaging winds should be
reported to local law enforcement and the National Weather Service
office in Brownsville.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-041100-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
630 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the Laguna Madre and
Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 20 nautical miles offshore until
1 PM CDT this afternoon for the possibility of thunderstorms
producing large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Small Craft Advisories are possible along the Lower Texas Coast
Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any observations of large hail and damaging winds should be
reported to the United States Coast Guard and the National
Weather Service office in Brownsville.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
502 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ248-249-031200-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-
Including the cities of Zapata and Hebbronville
502 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...Severe Thunderstorm Approaching From The Northwest...

National Weather Service Doppler radar in Brownsville is tracking
a severe thunderstorm about 65 miles northwest of Zapata and about
75 miles northwest of Hebbronville. Movement of this thunderstorm
is to the southeast at around 35 miles per hour.

If this thunderstorm maintains its current track and intensity,
Zapata County and Jim Hogg County may experience large hail and
damaging winds within the next two hours. Residents of these
counties are urged to monitor this developing weather situation
and be ready to protect life and property if warnings are issued
by the National Weather Service office in Brownsville.

TOMASELLI