Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Light northwest winds and MVFR ceilings prevail
across the Rio Grande Valley early this morning in the wake of the
weak cold front. Brownsville radar currently indicates a strong
thunderstorm just south of the Rio Grande River. Therefore, will
mention a TEMPO for some convection at MFE. Otherwise, northwest
winds around 10 knots and clearing skies are expected through this
morning. Full VFR conditions are expected by mid morning and
continue through the rest of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

..Slight risk of severe weather across western and northern
portions of deep south Texas tonight...

SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday night): Satellite and radar
images continue to indicate showers and thunderstorms across
central portions of the state this afternoon as the 500mb
low/trough across west Texas and northern Mexico moves slowly
eastward. At the surface...a weak frontal boundary was draped
across north-central Texas southwest towards Del Rio separating
the moist and unstable airmass across south Texas. LAPS surface
analysis currently showing lifting indices of -5 to -7 across
northern portions of the CWA extending northward into the Rio
Grande plains. Will likely see showers and thunderstorms...some
possibly strong to severe...develop to the north and west of deep
south Texas late this afternoon into this evening and move into
the western portions of the CWA this evening. Will continue to
mention large hail and damaging winds with severe storms tonight
across portions of Zapata...Jim Hogg and Starr counties with the
potential for severe storms as per the latest severe weather
outlook from SPC showing a slight risk of severe storms across the
northwest ranchlands. Will word gusty winds and small hail with
storms elsewhere tonight except across southeast portions of the
CWA where there is no marginal risk of severe weather and where
the atmosphere is capped. Even though the risk of severe weather
is limited across the lower and middle portions of the Rio Grande
valley tonight, will keep a chance of rain through late tonight
as a weak cold front moves through the area late tonight.

As the the upper level low/trough moves eastward Thursday, west
to northwest flow aloft will allow subsidence to increase across
southwest Texas and drier air at the surface and aloft will bring
an end to rain chances from west to east early Thurs morning and
skies will clear from west to east Thursday. This will allow
temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the
Rio Grande valley Thurs afternoon.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Mid-level ridging and high
pressure will build over the area on Friday under sunny skies and
with light winds and high temperatures mainly in the 90s. The mid
level pattern will remain more or less zonal through the weekend
with broad high pressure over the Gulf. A mid level cutoff low
over the East Pacific will move east and lift into the Southwest
United Sates on Monday. Diffluent southwest flow to the south of
the low over the Sierra Madre range will begin to destabilize the
atmosphere, though significant convection will not immediately
develop. Good return flow will continue on Tuesday, and
thunderstorms emanating from the front range will look a little
more promising Tuesday night, with a repeat performance on
Wednesday night. A few of the storms could move east and cross
into the CWA. In the mean time a moderate to strong southeast to
south wind will funnel moisture north into areas of more active
weather upstream. Overall, look for plenty of sun and near
average to slight warmer than average temperatures through the
weekend. Southeast winds will increase to breezy and even windy
near the coast heading into early next week, and cloudiness will
increase with dewpoints pushing into the lower 70s. The higher
dewpoints will keep overnight low temperatures above normal Monday
night through Wednesday night.

MARINE:
Now through Thursday night: Seas were near 6 feet with southeast
winds near 10 knots at buoy020 early this afternoon. Light to
moderate south winds will prevail across the coastal waters
tonight before a convective frontal boundary (weak cold front)
moves offshore the lower Texas coast Thurs morning. Winds and seas
will be higher in and near thunderstorms that develop along and
ahead of the convective frontal boundary tonight into Thurs
morning. Winds will shift to the north Thursday in the wake of the
front. Light north winds will prevail across the lower Texas
coast Thursday as surface high pressure settles across the coastal
waters. Winds will begin to veer to the east Thurs night as a
weak cold front moves into central Texas.

Friday through Monday night: Light north winds on Friday will
turn to southeast on Saturday. Southeast winds will increase to
moderate over the weekend as high pressure spreads over the area
and then shifts east. Seas will remain low to moderate through the
long term.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63

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