Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
437 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): The latest BRO/CRP
radar imagery shows that the conv boundary to our north is
persisting, but is slowing down a bit in forward speed. The
overall trend of this boundary will likely determine the conv
potential across Deep South TX and the RGV into the evening and
overnight hours. LAPS CAPE values remain in the 4000 to 5300 J/KG
range mainly along and east of the Intestate 69C corridor. The
current convection looks to be firing near this max CAPE values as
the boundary continues moving south. The ARW short term guidance
appears to be handling this conv the best of the CAMS guidance.
The ARW shows this conv boundary sagging steadily southwards this
evening and tonight eventually pushing the activity closer to the
Rio Grande. This looks reasonable and will go close to this
guidance for conv trends over the next 6 to 12 hours.

Assuming that the conv complex pushes to the west and south of the
Rio Grande later tonight, we may get a lull in the activity as
outflow from the conv stabilizes the atms.

The conv potential may persist into Tues for the region as a 500
mb trough axis develops/moves into the region from the west. So
will maintain chc pops into Tues with decent QPF with the pops
trending down into Tues Night.

The increasing pops/cld cover and the conv outflow will likely
start lowering the temps through tomorrow night. Fortunately, this
will likely limit the heat index values for tomorrow afternoon.
Will allow the Heat Advisory to expire at 7 pm this evening.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Finally, the pattern
begins to change in the long term as high pressure builds west of
the region by midweek. This will allow for a fairly benign upper
level pattern to set up, at least initially. At the surface, high
pressure will be in control of our weather here in Deep South
Texas allowing for less wind and perhaps a degree or two cooler
during the afternoon.

With light easterly flow at the surface through the end of the week,
expect some convection possibly developing along the sea breeze
roughly Thursday through the weekend. That said, the upper levels
begin to become a bit more interesting by this weekend as an upper
level trough or TUTT moves into the region. With continued weak
easterly flow at the surface allowing for the development of a sea
breeze front and some upper level support, increased POPs going into
next weekend.

Vaguely looking into the latter half of next weekend and into the
next workweek, it appears a wetter pattern is taking shape across
the region as the TUTT remains in place and southerly return flow
keeps a very rich low level column in place. This should be enough
to help with diurnal development at the very least.

&&

.MARINE (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Surface obs from the
lower TX Bay and Gulf waters in addition to ASCAT estimated winds
indicate that the conditions across the Bay and Gulf waters have
improved somewhat allowing for conditions to drop below SCA
levels. Surface ridging over the Gulf of Mex will maintain light
to moderate SE surface flow along the lower TX throughout
Tues/Tues Night.

(Wednesday through Monday): Moderate winds and seas can be expected
at the start of the long term, however, as high pressure takes
control, surface flow will begin to weaken allowing for a more
favorable marine environment that should persist through the
upcoming weekend. Cannot rule out some shower and storm development
by late week and into the weekend. In response, locally agitated
seas can be expected in the strongest convection, though this
seems like the exception rather than the rule.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  91  80  93 /  50  40  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          81  93  80  95 /  50  40  10  10
HARLINGEN            80  94  79  97 /  50  40  10  10
MCALLEN              81  96  80  99 /  40  50  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  96  79 100 /  40  50  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  86  81  89 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250>255-353.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation...60
Long Term...55
Graphicast/Upper Air...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
425 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

TXZ248>257-351-353-252130-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
425 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for inland Cameron, Willacy and
Kenedy, Hidalgo, Brooks and Starr counties until 7 PM CDT this
evening. Dangerous heat indices between 111 and 115 degrees can
be expected through early evening.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the lower Texas
coast, including Boca Chica Beach and the beaches of South Padre
Island.

There is potential for a few strong storms to develop across the
northern ranchlands and upper Rio Grande Valley this evening and
overnight. If storms develop, isolated strong wind gusts and
large hail will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is potential for a few strong storms to develop, mainly
across the northern ranchlands and upper Rio Grande Valley on
Tuesday. If storms develop, isolated strong wind gusts and large
hail will be possible.

The rip current risk is expected to remain elevated through
mid-week along the lower Texas coast, including Boca Chica Beach
and the beaches of South Padre Island.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-252130-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
425 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

TXZ251-351-242015-
Coastal Kenedy TX-Inland Kenedy TX-
227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 227 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Riviera, or near Sarita, moving south at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sarita and Kenedy County Sheriffs Office.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2726 9773 2727 9771 2728 9765 2724 9763
      2724 9758 2711 9752 2711 9796 2724 9793
      2724 9789 2725 9785 2725 9782 2727 9781
      2727 9780 2728 9779 2728 9776
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 359DEG 9KT 2728 9778

BRADY