Alert archive / Massachusetts / Wind Advisories in 2019

Wind Advisory 19, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

November 17, 2019Barnstable County, Dukes County, Nantucket County, Massachusetts; Washington County, Rhode Island

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this wind advisory at Nov 17, 2019, 3:17 AM EST for Barnstable County, Dukes County, Nantucket County, Massachusetts; Washington County, Rhode Island. It took effect at Nov 18, 2019, 6:00 AM EST. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 17, 2019, 3:17 AM EST (08:17 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 18, 2019, 6:00 AM EST
Expired
Nov 18, 2019, 5:00 PM EST
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Counties Barnstable County, MA, Dukes County, MA, Nantucket County, MA, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -116 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2799 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-116 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-8 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

158 
WWUS71 KBOX 170817
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
317 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

MAZ023-024-RIZ008-171630-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T0600Z-191118T2200Z/
Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Vineyard Haven, Nantucket, 
and New Shoreham
317 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Dukes MA and Nantucket MA Counties. 
  In Rhode Island, Block Island RI County.

* WHEN...Late tonight and Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box
7 follow-up statements
329 
WWUS71 KBOX 172031
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
331 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

MAZ022-180445-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1200Z-191118T2200Z/
Barnstable MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, and Provincetown
331 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Barnstable MA County.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RIZ008-180445-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1100Z-191118T1900Z/
Block Island RI-
Including the city of New Shoreham
331 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Dukes MA and Nantucket MA Counties. 
  In Rhode Island, Block Island RI County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 2 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ023-024-180445-
/O.EXT.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1100Z-191118T2200Z/
Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Vineyard Haven and Nantucket
331 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Dukes MA and Nantucket MA Counties. 
  In Rhode Island, Block Island RI County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 5 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box
936 
WWUS71 KBOX 172057
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
357 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

MAZ022-180500-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1200Z-191118T2200Z/
Barnstable MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, and Provincetown
357 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Barnstable MA County.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RIZ008-180500-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1100Z-191118T1900Z/
Block Island RI-
Including the city of New Shoreham
357 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Rhode Island, Washington RI County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 2 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ023-024-180500-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1100Z-191118T2200Z/
Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Vineyard Haven and Nantucket
357 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Dukes MA and Nantucket MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 5 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box
955 
WWUS71 KBOX 180243
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
943 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

MAZ022-181045-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1200Z-191118T2200Z/
Barnstable MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, and Provincetown
943 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Barnstable MA County.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RIZ008-181045-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1100Z-191118T1900Z/
Block Island RI-
Including the city of New Shoreham
943 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Rhode Island, Washington RI County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 2 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ023-024-181045-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1100Z-191118T2200Z/
Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Vineyard Haven and Nantucket
943 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Dukes MA and Nantucket MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 5 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.  
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box
768 
WWUS71 KBOX 180913
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
413 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

MAZ022-181715-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1200Z-191118T2200Z/
Barnstable MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, and Provincetown
413 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Barnstable MA County.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM EST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RIZ008-181715-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1100Z-191118T1900Z/
Block Island RI-
Including the city of New Shoreham
413 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Block Island. 

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 2 PM EST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MAZ023-024-181715-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.191118T1100Z-191118T2200Z/
Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Vineyard Haven and Nantucket
413 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Massachusetts, Dukes MA and Nantucket MA Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 5 PM EST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box
194 
WWUS71 KBOX 181459
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
959 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

MAZ022>024-182200-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191118T2200Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, and Nantucket
959 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Marthas Vineyard. 

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM EST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RIZ008-181900-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191118T1900Z/
Block Island RI-
Including the city of New Shoreham
959 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Block Island.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 2 PM EST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box
192 
WWUS71 KBOX 182038
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
338 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

MAZ022>024-182200-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191118T2200Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, and Nantucket
338 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Marthas Vineyard.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM EST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box
171 
WWUS71 KBOX 182203
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
503 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

MAZ022>024-182315-
/O.EXP.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191118T2200Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, and Nantucket
503 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have diminished below advisory levels.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/box

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Nov 17, 1:08 AM EST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 17, 1:08 AM EST, 2 hours 9 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
108 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift east across northern New England
tonight, keeping dry conditions and cold air across the region.
As the high pushes away Sunday, temperatures will gradually
moderate but remain below normal. A coastal storm will then bring
rain and strong coastal winds late Sunday night into Monday,
with some light icing in the interior at the onset. The storm
moves to the Maritimes Tuesday with high pressure building south
of New England Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front may bring a
round of showers sometime Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM update...

Strato-cu developing across SE coastal MA as coastal front sets
up with NE flow bringing shallow low level moisture. Expect
clouds to expand across SE MA early this morning and possibly
into RI toward daybreak. Temps not quite as cold as previously
forecast as northerly winds just strong enough to disrupt ideal
radiational cooling. Raised mins a bit with lows mostly in the
teens interior and 20s RI and eastern MA but holding in the 30s
Cape/Islands east of the coastal front.

Previous discussion...

Clear skies across much of SNE this evening but some lower
clouds have developed on the upper Cape and there are clouds
just offshore and flirting with ACK. Cross sections show
increasing low level moisture across eastern New Eng where skies
will likely become mostly cloudy late tonight and toward
daybreak. But remaining mostly clear further into the interior.

Clear skies, light wind and dry airmass with strong high pres to
the north will result in excellent radiational cooling
conditions away from the coast. Lows here will bottom out in
the single numbers and teens, coldest across western MA. Along
the coast, a NE wind will keep temps mostly in the 20s with low
to mid 30s outer Cape/Islands where gusts to 20-30 mph expected
overnight as a coastal front develops. In fact temps will
likely rise into the 30s across east coastal MA as NE winds
increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Sunday...

Will see E-NE winds continue to increase through the day as the
northern periphery of the moisture from the SE low pres works
toward the region. Clouds will continue to increase and lower,
especially during the afternoon.

Some question how quickly the moisture will work up the coast,
which will be dependent upon how quickly the high across NH and
Maine lifts to the Maritimes. At this point, should remain dry
across the majority of the region through the day, but will
start to see the leading edge of the light rain reach the S
coast around or after 21Z.

Temps will recover especially along the coast with the
persistent onshore winds. Readings will top off in the lower-mid
40s along the shore, ranging to the mid-upper 30s well inland,
coldest across the higher inland terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

Coastal Low and Potential Impacts Sun night into Mon:

* Light icing/light freezing rain likely at the onset across parts
  of the interior late Sun night/Mon am before ptype changes to rain

* Periods of rain late Sun night and Mon which may be heavy at times
  especially across eastern MA/RI

* Northeast wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph with a few gusts up to 50
  mph possible across the immediate coast late Sun night/Mon

* Minor Coastal Flooding possible along the eastern MA coast on Mon

Tuesday Through Saturday...

* Dry and seasonable weather follows Tue/Wed and into Thu

* A round of showers possible sometime Thu night into Fri

Details...

Sunday night into Monday...

The main concern continues to revolve around a coastal low pressure
system Sun night into Mon, which will pass east of Nantucket.
The high resolution models tend to be faster and further
northwest when compared to the EC/GFS. We think there will be
somewhat of a compromise in the models, so blended the timing
for now. Thinking that much of Sun evening may end up dry other
than some light drizzle along the coast. However, should see
precipitation overspread the region from southeast to northwest
after midnight.

1) Interior Light Icing Potential:

Ptype should mainly be rain in most locations. However, given
the low pressure system tracking offshore and lingering high
pressure over eastern Canada some light icing/freezing rain is
likely across portions of the interior at the onset. We are most
confident in this occurring across the high terrain of the
Worcester Hills and east slopes of the Berks. Up to one tenth of
an inch of ice accretion is possible and untreated roads will
be icy for the morning commute. There also is a possibility for
a brief period of light freezing rain across the lower
elevations of interior northeast MA and into parts of CT, but
it also could end up a few degrees too warm. Regardless, Ptype
should change to rain Mon morning in all locations.

2) Strong Wind Potential Along The Coast:

Offshore low pressure tracking east of Nantucket will be associated
with a modest northeast LLJ of 45 to 55 knots across eastern MA and
RI. This should result in northeast wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph with
a few gusts near 50 mph along the coast.  The strongest of these
winds will be late Sun night into Mon especially across the
Cape/Islands. Since we do not have a rapidly bombing low pressure
system or anomalously high surface pressures in eastern Canada,
think this will mainly be a wind advisory event along portions of
the eastern MA coast. Fortunately, given most leaves are off the
trees these wind speeds should not cause too many issues other than
a few downed tree limbs etc.

3) Rainfall:

Given we have a well developed coastal low pressure system tracking
east Nantucket, periods of rain will impact the region late Sun
night into Mon. The guidance continues to differ with rainfall
amounts given uncertainty how close the system tracks to the
coast. With a closed 700 mb low expecting a general 0.50 to 1.50
inches of rainfall with the higher amounts across eastern MA
and RI. We may see some 2 inch amounts across eastern MA and RI,
depending on the exact track. Regardless, rainfall amounts are
not expected to be high enough to result in any fresh water
flooding issues.

4) Minor Coastal Flooding Potential:

Fairly decent E/NE fetch combined with several hours of strong winds
should bring a storm surge of 1.5 to 2.0 feet with Monday afternoon
high tide in eastern MA, which is a little higher than storm surge
guidance from ESTOFS/ETSS. Astronomical high tide is (10.3 ft
at Boston and 3.7 ft at Nantucket Harbor) so this would bring
the potential for pockets of minor coastal flooding to
much of the eastern MA coast including Nantucket and Martha's
Vineyard. Seas offshore of 14-18 ft are not expected to
significantly add to the impact along coast but may bring minor
beach erosion. So in a nutshell, while some pockets of minor
coastal flooding seem reasonable do not think winds/storm surge
will be enough to result in a significant coastal flood event.

Monday night and Tuesday...

The system departs Monday night into early Tuesday morning.  It is
possible there is a touch of wintry precipitation on the backside of
the system across the high terrain of western MA.  Any amounts
though should be light.  Otherwise, dry weather expected for most of
Tue with highs recovering into the 40s to the lower 50s.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Another low pressure system and associated cold front may bring a
period of showers sometime Thu night into Fri.  Otherwise, dry
weather expected with seasonable temps dominating. The exception
might be Fri as we may have a period of mild temps in the warm
sector ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...Moderate confidence.

Through 12z...
Mainly VFR, but some MVFR cigs develop across SE MA. NE gusts
increase to 25 kt across ACK.

Today...
Low end VFR to MVFR cigs expected to expand west across SNE
reaching the CT valley this afternoon. NE gusts 20-25 kt over
the Cape and increasing to 30 kt over ACK.

Tonight...
Widespread MVFR with areas of IFR. Patchy drizzle or interior
freezing drizzle possible in the evening, then steadier rain
overspreading eastern New Eng overnight with pockets of light
freezing rain in the interior. NE gusts 20-30 kt along the coast
and 35 kt over the Islands.

Monday...
MVFR/IFR in rain and fog. Pockets of freezing rain possible in
the morning in the interior. NE gusts 20-30 kt in the coastal
plain and 30-40 kt Cape/Islands.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Expect MVFR cigs
developing today.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Expect MVFR cigs
developing this afternoon.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA, slight chance FZRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...

Expect NE winds to briefly diminish to 15-20 kt this evening,
then will become E-NE 20-30 kt, highest on the southern outer
waters mainly after midnight. Gusts will increase to around 35
kt on the southern outer waters, where Gale Warnings remain in
place. Seas will build to 5-8 ft on the outer waters. Good
visibility.

Sunday...

Expect E-NE winds will increase to gale force across the waters
E and S of Cape Cod as well as the southern near shore waters
from midday through the afternoon. Gale Warnings are in effect
there. On the eastern waters, winds will gust up to 25-30 kt.
Seas will build up to 6-10 ft, highest on the southern outer
waters. Good visibility continues, but will see light rain
reach the southern waters toward nightfall.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft. Rain. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Monday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ231>235-237.
     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 5 PM EST Monday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ250-251.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ254.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ255-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...KJC/Frank
MARINE...Frank/EVT
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 4:37 PM EST, 10 hours 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
437 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-172145-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
437 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts and western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Light freezing rain is possible Sunday night into Monday morning,
especially in the higher elevations. Up to one tenth of an inch of
icing is possible, which will mainly impact travel.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MAZ005>007-013>024-RIZ001>008-172145-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
437 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts,
northeastern Massachusetts, southeastern Massachusetts, and Rhode
Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Northeast winds may gust as high as 40 to 50 mph late Sunday night
into Monday, especially on Cape Ann, Cape Cod, and the Islands.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ255-256-172145-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
437 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ254-172145-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
437 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ250-251-172145-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
437 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231>235-237-172145-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
437 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-172145-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
437 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Frank

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.boston.gov

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 17, 3:21 AM ESTCoastal Flood AdvisoryBOXBarnstable, Essex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk38 hr
Nov 17, 3:28 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBOXEssex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk and 1 more51 hr
Nov 17, 4:18 AM ESTGale WarningBOX41 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in Massachusetts, 2019Wind Advisories in Rhode Island, 2019Every wind advisory in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.