Small Craft Advisory 3, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

149 
WHUS71 KBOX 040236
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
936 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

ANZ250-254-041045-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1600Z-190105T0100Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
936 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-041045-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1800Z-190105T0300Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
936 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-041045-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1800Z-190105T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
936 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-041045-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1800Z-190105T0000Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
936 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

863 
WHUS71 KBOX 040841
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
341 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

ANZ251-041645-
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1400Z-190104T2200Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
341 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM
EST this afternoon.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas Around 2 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-041645-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1400Z-190105T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
341 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-041645-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1600Z-190105T0600Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
341 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-041645-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1600Z-190105T0400Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
341 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-041645-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1600Z-190105T0400Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
341 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

882 
WHUS71 KBOX 041503
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

ANZ250-254-042315-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190105T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-042315-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1600Z-190105T0600Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-042315-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1600Z-190105T0400Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-042315-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.190104T1600Z-190105T0400Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-042200-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190104T2200Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas Around 2 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

550 
WHUS71 KBOX 042016
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
316 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

ANZ255-256-050400-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190105T0400Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
316 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30
  kt. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-050300-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190105T0300Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
316 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25
  kt. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-050430-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190105T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
316 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-050400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190105T0400Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
316 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas Around 2 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-050400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190105T0400Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
316 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

733 
WHUS71 KBOX 050221
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
921 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

ANZ231-050330-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190105T0400Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
921 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has cancelled the
Small Craft Advisory.

$$

ANZ251-050330-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190105T0300Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
921 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has cancelled the
Small Craft Advisory.

$$

ANZ250-254-050600-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190105T0600Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
921 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-050400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190105T0400Z/
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
921 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ232>235-237-050400-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190105T0400Z/
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
921 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
101 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and mainly dry weather prevails during this afternoon into
Friday as high pressure builds to the south. A storm system
tracking northeast from the mid Atlantic coast will likely bring
a chilly rain Saturday, with pockets of freezing rain possible
across northern MA. Dry, blustery conditions Sunday with cooler
temperatures next Monday. Wintry weather is possible next Tue
and/or Wed.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM Update...

Mid level drying has taken place and winds have shifted to the
NW across the majority of the area. Have increased gusts to
20-25 mph, with higher gusts around 30 mph possible across the
higher terrain of the interior until we approach sunset. Diurnal
stratocumulus will provide a mix of clouds and sun. More
cloudiness may prevail across the far NW interior. High temps
will be on the mild side this afternoon, in the upper 30s to
mid 40s for most locales. A few spots in SE MA may top out in
the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pres in control as it builds south of New Eng tonight then
moving offshore during Fri. Clear skies tonight and lots of
sunshine on Fri as column remains dry. Lows mostly in the 20s
with nice recovery on Fri as increasing SW flow brings milder
air. Low level temps are mild but shallow mixing will limit full
heating potential but still expect highs well into the 40s
across much of SNE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ Highlights...

 - Mainly rain Saturday - Saturday night, potential interior icing
 - Windy Sunday, cold Sunday night into Monday
 - Potential wintry weather Monday night into Tuesday
 - Unseasonably cold conditions possible late week

*/ Overview...

Mild winter continues. Evaluating 5-day ensemble means, progressive
H3 N Pacific flow emphasized by +EPO / +WPO trends yields continued
CONUS warmth and higher H5 heights downstream of NE Pacific H5 trof.
Subsequent preferred H5 trof SE Canada / Labrador Sea, not mild all
the time. Energy wave-train undergoing subtle perturbations, wiggles
noted by -AO trends, there will be opportunities for NE CONUS Arctic
shots rearward of downstream storm maturation, and if energy follows
can't rule out onset wintry outcomes. Lots of energy, lots of chaos,
interactions and nudges, potential split-flows or anti-cyclonic wave
breaks, can't nail outcomes down with any certainty. Hopefully some
insight through the noise in the discussion below. One thing worthy
of noting , as to long-range influences, it'll be interesting weeks
from now of a MJO phase 6 to 7. EPS weeklies suggest by late January
into February we'll see colder conditions.

*/ Discussion...

Friday night through Saturday night ...

Interior S New England freezing rain potential. Undoubtedly mature S-
stream, cut-off storm center sweeping quickly E with the progressive
flow pattern. Trowaling sub-tropical warm, moist air conveyor belts
undergoing deep-layer ascent. But forecast models still struggling
with N-stream morphology, 03.0z EC / Canadian faster than 03.0z NAM
and GFS counterparts, less separation between the two by sinking,
dry air. Lower height promotion, pull back of S-stream conveyor belt
motions, greater outcomes. Notable differences within low-mid level
theta-E fields between the two model camps. Still favor the 03.0z EC
solution given broader, faster, progressive pattern. Deformation a
result of S-stream warm-moist conveyor belt pull back, more broadly
over S New England. Low-levels mild, greatest concern is on shallow
cold air initially given N ageostrophic winds from interior locales.
Eroding N whether through daytime heating and/or latent heat release
from falling rain. As a first guess suggest 2m wet-bulb temperatures
from high-res NAM. Can't rule out a brief period of freezing rain as
far S as N CT / NW RI hills. Greater forecast confidence, continued
mention in the HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK of freezing rain impacts.

Sunday through Monday ...

Sweeping arctic front, blustery NW winds Sunday, possible wind head-
lines given steep lapse rates mixing down faster winds, drier air.
Crux of cold air aloft by Monday morn associated with a 1030+ high
N, potential light winds along with mostly clear conditions, can't
rule out radiational cooling, widespread lows in the teens. Rebound
as winds turn S Monday. W/SW flow, warm air advection aloft, surging
ahead of the Great Lakes low center discussed below.

Monday Night through Tuesday ...

Possible wintry weather. Front-end thump associated with isentropic
upglide, low-level convergent forcing, beneath broader diffluence
aloft. However noting less QG-forcing compared to the upcoming storm
system, more association with a continental-origin airmass, pwats
notably less. Yet low center transfer Great Lakes towards the S New
England coast, better baroclinicity, localized low-level convergence
and enhanced deformation as thermal fields cool towards the wet-bulb
with N ageostrophic flow from lingering arctic airmass via top-down
moistening. Dynamic cooling, cold air drainage, can't rule out a
period of accumulating snows prior to a SW-NE changeover beneath the
sweeping NE H925-85 low center across the NE CONUS and accompanying
S warm-moist tongue. Still a low confidence forecast.

Late week ...

With storm center lifting out, digging along with a PV-streamer
displacement towards SE Canada preferred H5 trof development, expect
cold air digging S. Accompanying NW flow, have to watch wind chills
along with wind headlines. Associated 1030+ high, could see coldest
air of the season Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence in trends. Lower
confidence in timing and details.

Through 00Z... SCT-BKN stratocu deck with cigs 025-035. Best
chance for MVFR CIGS exists over the higher terrain of interior
SNE, elsewhere MVFR CIGs possible but should be short-lived.
NW wind gusts 20-25 kts, except 25-30 kts possible over the
interior.

Tonight and Friday...
VFR. NW winds diminishing, becoming SW with gusts to 25 kt
developing Friday afternoon especially across Cape / Islands.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance FZRA, slight chance RA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA, chance FZRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA, slight chance
FZRA.

Sunday: VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with areas gusts to 30 kt.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence.

This afternoon...NW gusts 20-25 kts this afternoon across the
coastal waters. SCA headlines expanded to cover much of the
coastal waters except some nearshore locales including Boston
Harbor and Narragansett Bay. In these locales a brief gust or 2
to 25 kts is possible this afternoon.

Tonight and Friday...
Diminishing W / NW winds tonight, then increasing SW flow develops
Friday afternoon with gusts to 25-30 kt.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231-
     251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...KJC/Sipprell/NMB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...KJC/Sipprell/NMB
MARINE...KJC/Sipprell/NMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
328 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>012-026-RIZ001-040830-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
328 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
western Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A period of light snow, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle may
result in slippery travel this morning across northern Connecticut,
northwest Rhode Island and western-central Massachusetts. Little if
any impact is expected in the metro areas of Boston, Providence and
Hartford with light snow change fairly quickly to light rain as
temperatures rise through the 30s, resulting in mainly wet roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday night through Saturday night...

There is the threat of freezing rain across interior Southern New
England that'll lead to slick surfaces and hazardous travel conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

MAZ007-013>024-RIZ002>008-040830-
Eastern Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
328 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts,
northeastern Massachusetts, southeastern Massachusetts, northern
Rhode Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-040830-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
328 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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